| This paper establishes the main logical framework of the research through studying literature review of domestic and international river basin management project evaluation research with ecological economics, landscape ecology, environmental economics and other theories. Based on field survey, the effect of Tarim River Basin comprehensive reclamation project are illustrated by analyzing the data of water resources, climate, vegetation and others. Based on the above research, this paper carries out the evaluation of landscape ecological benefit and social economic benefit by using remote sensing interpretation, factor analysis, grey correlation analysis and other tools. In field survey, the basic situation of various types of comprehensive reclamation projects in Tarim River Basin are grasped by analyzing all kinds of information that are collected from relevant departments to the project. For the study of water resources after the project were implemented, this paper compares the change of surface water and groundwater before and after implemented the project from three aspects-the whole basin, source area and mainstream area. In addition, the paper studies the impact to natural environment by analyzing characteristics of meteorological elements, natural vegetation and typical vegetation. Applying theoretical knowledge of landscape ecology, environmental science and other theories, the research constructs two kinds of index systems to evaluate the ecological benefit of the project, which are landscape ecological benefit index system and environmental quality index system. After distinguishing the stakeholders of the project, the paper analyzes the social economic conditions in the project area. The evaluation of the social economic benefit of the project is studied by using the methods of factor analysis and gray correlation analysis from two aspects-local social economic scale index system and industrial structure index system. This paper also proposes specific issues and relevant policy advices discussed in the evaluation. The main results are as follows:(1) For the research of changes of water resources and natural environment after the implementation of the project, this paper analyzes the change of surface water and groundwater when the project were implemented from the three aspects-the whole basin, source area and mainstream area; the paper also studies the impacts of water resources and the underground water level in the lower reaches of Tarim River by transporting ecological water. Based on the above research, the paper illuminates the influence of the project on natural environment by analyzing characteristics of the temporal and spatial variation of meteorological elements, the change of quantity and type of vegetation, and distribution of typical vegetation in the study area. Overall, compared the water level from year 2002-2009 with the average water level of from year 1956-1998 in the Tarim River Basin, the total water resources increased by 11.68%, in which there was a significant increase in groundwater resources, about 50.50%. Four streams out of mountain pass annual runoff showed a trend of growth; while the trunk stream of each control station runoff showed a significant decreasing trend. From 2000 to the end of 2011, there were 7 times that conveyance head reaches the Taitema Lake in twelve times on the implementation of ecological water, and a number of data showed groundwater level in the lower reaches of Tarim River were rising year by year. For the research of changes of the natural environment, during 2000 to 2010, influenced by the topographical features, the climate characteristics basically followed the general law that the changes happened gradually from the Tarim basin, which is as the center to the periphery in the study area. All of the annual average temperature, annual rainfall, annual sunshine hours and the annual average wind speed trended to rise, while the annual relative humidity and annual evaporation trended to decline. For the changes of the number of vegetation, the average vegetation coverage showed modest increase, and there are large differences on the areas in variance types of vegetation in the basin. For the dynamic changes of vegetation type, the internal changes of vegetation types is not strong during the construction period of the project in Tarim River Basin; while the impact on the development of human society and economy is greater than ecological protection of the natural, and the types of grasses, shrubs and vegetation are transformed frequently. For the change of typical vegetation distribution, Populus forest area and vegetation coverage showed a growth trend; Tamarisk plexus increased in area but decreased in vegetation cover; Alhagi increased both in area and vegetation coverage; Phragmites decreased both in area and vegetation coverage.(2) The paper evaluates the ecological benefits of the project based on two kinds of index systems-the landscape ecological benefits index system and environmental quality index system. For the landscape level, from 2004 to 2009 the studied area has enhanced the degree of landscape fragmentation and the diversity of land use types, but has reduced the degree of advantages plaque. The influences of human activity to landscape pattern are increasing, while the influences of connectivity of spatial to landscape pattern are reducing. In addition, the distribution structure of the types of landscape elements are not balanced in the space. Since the implementation of the project in 2001, the index of ecological environment quality in every prefecture in study area showed a growth trend. Eco-environmental-quality index in 2010 increased by 20.18%?41.82% compared to the year of 2002, and the average improvement was 33.69%.The quality of ecological environmental improved significantly in watershed. The eco-environmental-quality index in every county or city improved as well. During 10 years, the counties of Hetian city, Hejing county, Bohu county, Zepu county and Aheqi county had improved by 56.11%?176.31% with an average of 97.82%. The level of eco-environmental-quality has gone from poor to good.(3) Through the identification of the project stakeholders, this paper analyzes the social economic conditions for project, evaluates the benefits of social economy from two aspects-local social economic scale and industrial structure. The results based on the analysis of DID model showed that the project had promoted the growth of the total output value of agriculture and animal husbandry and the net income per capita of farmers and herdsmen. The benefit counties had a significant economic effects compared with the non-benefit counties of the project. Using methods of principal component analysis and factor analysis, with seven indexes such as the area of cultivated land per capita, urbanization rate, effective irrigation area, ratio of secondary and tertiary industries and GDP per capital, the paper studied the level of social economy on the 21 benefit counties and cities and 9 non-benefit counties of the project. The results showed that development level of social economy had improved significantly in all the above counties. The level of social economic development changes relatively greatly especially in 2009 when the implementation of the project of comprehensive reclamation in Tarim River Basin was done. In addition, the level of social economy developed faster in benefit counties of the project. |
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