A Study On The Impact Of RMB Internationalization On China's Import And Export Trade

RMB internationalization is the inevitable result of China's economic development.Since the end of last century,the study of the internationalisation of the RMB began to rise, the internationalisation of the RMB will bring many effects of different sides,in these effects, the influence of the RMB internationalisation will be directly reflected in the of China's trade. Certainly,the trade effect of RMB internationalization can be divided into different stages. According to the internationalization stages,the directions and level of the influence of China's import and export caused by RMB internationalization is different.The study on trade effect of RMB internationalisation must be conducted according to the current level of RMB Internationalization.The main content of this dissertation includes four parts.The four parts explains China's import and export trade effects of RMB internationalisation from theory,reality and empirical conditions espectively.In order to make a more systematic and comprehensive research,we gave full consideration to the internationalisation of the theory of currency and trade.Then we choiced empirical model and data of samples according to the internationalisation of the renminbi and the features of the development of China's trade.The first chapter is introduction, mainly including background and values of our study, the research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars(literature review). On the basis of predecessors' research,we determined our questions,paradigm and distribution of specific chapters,chose research methods.Chapter2to3is the theoretical study on the mechanism and theories of the trade effects of RMB internationalization.The theorical analysis of the mechanism is the theoretical basis of the research of RMB internationalization effects China's trade. Its also prove that our research contents and conclusions is persuasive in theory.In fourth chapter,we analysed the stage of RMB's internationalization,the situation of china's trade,which provide a starting point for the following empirical analysis.Chapter5is the study on the internationalization of main currencys,include Pound,Dollar and Ruble,the international trade development caused by the process of these currency internationalization.Pound and Dollar is the traditional international currency,both had established their leading position in the international monetary system. In the process of the internationalization of Pound and Dollar, British and American both get effects from the currency internationalization,include trade rules and environment of trade.The comprehensive study of the two currencies's internationalization have referential meaning for us to research the trade effect of RMB internationalization and put forward the reasonable sugesstions.The study on Rouble's internationalization,especially the impacts of Ruble's disintegration impact on trade,can be taken as a reference to the trade effects of RMB internationalization.The sixth chapter is empirical analysis of RMB SWAP's trade effects.The empirical analysis of this part is mainly use the gravity model, the method is mixed regression. Gravity model is so widely used in research on the issues of international trade that many domestic and foreign scholars make a classic correction on the gravity model.The openness of the gravity means we can introduce new explanatory variables to gravity model,according to the needs and characteristics of datas.We added a free trade agreement China signed (virtual variables) and the number of currency swap in recent years involved in the swap plan between China and other country, get the effects force of the trade effects of RMB internationalisation.Due to the stage of Rminbi internationalisation,the trade effects of RMB internationalisation are more to stay in the stage of regionalization,it can also says that,the internationalisation of RMB have not reached the stage that China can acquire rights in trade rules and the trade interests around the world.Dollars is the main tools of settlement and reserve of China. Therefore, in the part of the empirical research,we reduced the object to the area of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.The results showed that the trade effect of RMB internationlization is stronger, due to these regions exist a large number of Entrepot trade with mainland and provided traders with serivce for RMB cross-border settlement and RMB SWAPs.In chapter7,we established a model about RMB cross-border trade settlement, and discussed the currency selection process, analyzed the choice behavior in trade settlement, then tested the conclusion of a theoretical model based on macro data.The internationalisation of RMB affect china's import and export trade by exchange rate and trade costs. On the one hand, RMB cross-border trade settlement provides a new currency to trade settlement;on the other hand,RMB settlement influenced the development of trade through reducing transaction costs.The eighth Chapter is conclusion and suggestions.The theoretical and empirical analysis concluded that,RMB internationalisation influenced China's import and export trade development through exchange rate and transaction costs. The most significant effect RMB internaltionalization impact on China's import and export trade occured in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions,the trade effect of RMB internationalisation through cost savings is significant.RMB internationalization promoted the development of Chinese service trade and increased the proportion of renminbi settlement, but not significantly promoted the development of China's goods trade. On a global scale, RMB internationalisation had a negative effects on China's import and export trade,Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions is the important platform in using the trade effects of RMB internationalisation. Causes of this phenomenon include:China's high investment contribution rate lead to income's asynchronous improved;Unbalanced development of Chinese import and export trade,the level of China's export is far higher than import trade and the unique structure of product.In regional trade, the trade between China and it's neighboring economies had been significantly affected by RMB internationalisation.But from the historical experience and long-term perspective,RMB internationalisation will effectively promote the development of China's import and export. In order to achieve this effect,RMB must become a major international settlement currency and the reserve currency,because of the high level of RMB internationalization can help China get the trade rules, save the cost of China in international trade.From the theoretical sense,the study of the trade effect of RMB internatioalisation is the necessary of the monetary theory's enrichment and trade theory's development. As the fastest growing currency in emerging economies,RMB will be vital in the international monetary system.China's economy has its own unique development path and characteristic,the internationalisation of the renminbi caused by China's economic development must be different from the features of main monetary internationalization.Traditional theory and practice of sovereign currency internationalization theory are mostly come from the economic development of developed countries and regions,it can't be widely used in explaining the currency internationalization issues under the new situation of the international economic.Study on RMB internationalization according to the process of RMB internationalization can fill these vacancies, improve the traditional theoretical system,optimize the path of RMB internationalization,speed up the transformation of trade structure.From the practical sense,the internationalisation of the renminbi and trade is the two important aspects of China's economy to have an effect on the world economy.The internationalisation of renminbi and China's trade development interacted each other,these two factors are indivisible.The speed of renminbi internationalisation and the path choice of RMB internationalisation have an impact on China's trade status in the international trade market and further development of China's trade.In history,currency internationalization of some countries and regions brought different influence on its import and export trade.There are some countries improved the trade environment and trade status through its currency internationalization,while some countries suffered a negative effect,because it's foundation of currency internationalization is weak and the unreasonable deviation of the path selection.These historical experience prompted us to study on the direction and degree of trade effects of RMB internationalisation, and then lead the internationalisation of RMB and China's trade to the road of higher level and lower cost.