Research On The Rebound Effects Of Energy Consumption In China Based On The Semiparametric Spatial Panel Econometric Model

Improving energy efficiency is an important energy policy adopted by Chinese government in an effort to achieve energy conservation target,and it also is a commonmeasure adopted by many countries to cope with the challenge of energy and climate change problems,whereas its effectiveness might be affected by the rebound effect,that is to say.technology progress would reduce energy consumption by increasing energy utilization efficiency,however,technology progress also can bring new demand for energy,which offsets partially(even totally)the energy-saving.At present,China is in the key stage of heavy industrialization development,and facing the dual pressures of economic development and environmental resources protection.Under this background,to elaborate study on rebound effect in China’s energy consumption is not only an important premise of recognizing clearly the rising energy consumption in China,but also a objective basis of making scientifically economic development and energy conservation policies.In theory,Aiming at the formation mechanism of the rebound effect,the analytic expression of energy rebound effect on energy efficiency improvement was deduced using the general equilibrium conditions based on the graphic analysis.The results show that,a)the short-term rebound effect magnitude depends on the two aspects,energy supply price elasticity and demand price elasticity,and in the short term,the rebound effect can be various in four cases:zero rebound,partial rebound,full rebound and back fire.However,super energy-saving case can not be achieved in short term.b)the long-term rebound effect magnitude depends on more elasticities,including the own price elasticity of energy supply,the price elasticities of other factors and the cross elasticities of marginal products,besides the energy supply price elasticity and demand price elasticity,and in the long term,super-conservation case may be possible as well as the four cases:zero rebound,partial rebound,full rebound and back fire.In experience,firstly,to explore the evolution of relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in China,in turn,to provide the reality basis for using subsequently semiparametric spatial panel data model to depict China’s economic growth.And the existence of environmental kuznets curve e of carbon dioxide emissions in China be empirical studied by using the flexible and robust semiparametric panel data model in the frame of EKC hypothesis.Secondly,this dissertation makes an empirical study of the dynamics interactions among energy price,technology progress and energy efficiency using provincial panel data in China by construction the model for analyzes the dynamics effect between energy efficiency and its influence factors for the purpose of identify correctly the major influence factors of energy efficiency and research the endogenous relationship between these factors and energy efficiency.Finally,aiming at the drawbacks of using constant energy output elasticity and ignoring the economic spatial spillover effect as well as the nonlinear relationship between.energy-economic in the current rebound effect literatures,this dissertation converts the rebound effect calculating issue deduced by energy utilization efficiency to the one deduced by technology progress in view of the availability of energy utilization efficiency data as well as considering the endogenous relationship between energy efficiency and technological progress.This dissertation gives a method of calculating the rebound effect by constructing a semiparametric spatial panel data model of three-element economic growth,and makes an empirical study of the rebound effect during economic growth process based on the provincial panel data in China.The empirical results of rebound effect in China show that,a)there exists significant spatial autocorrelation in China’s regional economic growth;b)the elasticity of economic output on energy input changes nonlinearly according to the spatial and temporal variations of energy input;c)there exists phase rebound effect of energy consumption in China’s economic development;d)rebound effect appears relatively concentrated in the eastern provinces,and less in economic underdeveloped provinces;e)rebound effect in most of the provinces is mainly concentrated before 2001,and the frequency of rebound effect during 2002 later is less than during before 2001,this time distribution is more obvious in the middle and western provinces;f)China’s rebound effect overall shows the characteristics of energy-saving,and rebound effect overall shows the characteristics of energy-saving in China,rebound effect is not the main cause of China’s energy consumption rising,but heavy industrialization acceleration and the low energy efficiency and technical level are main causes of China’s energy consumption fast growing.Finally,some policy thinking and further research prospects are put forword according to the theory and empirical study results combined with the reality of China’s economic development.