| Optimizing the economic structure and maintaining long-term sustainable economic growth will become the normal in the new period. The downlink economic growth rate brings pressure on employment. In the context of growing aging population and demographic dividend reducing gradually, how does the employment structure adapt to industrial structural upgrading has become an urgent and long-term problem.Since the influence mechanism of industrial structural upgrading on the employment is complicated, the employment effects of industrial structural upgrading has not been unanimous conclusions in the existing empirical literature yet. The purpose of this dissertation is to explore the mechanisms and effects of the industrial structural upgrading affect on total employment and employment structure,proposing some measures for employment expansion and employment structure optimization based on the current situation of the industrial structure and employment, then to make the virtuous circle of industrial structural upgrading and employment structural upgrading ultimatly.On the theoretical level, firstly, this paper summarizes the general rules of industrial structural upgrading and employment development, such as Petty-Clark theorem, industrial structure theory by Kuznets, a uniform analysis of development pattern by Chenery and Syrquin. Secondly, there is a discription about the general factors that affect employment in China, including economic growth, technological progress, industrial restructuring, labor market segmentation,etc. Thirdly, the paper analyses the mechanism of industrial structural upgrading and employment. For the inter-industry upgrading,Lilien's sector transfer theory framework is used to discuss the impact of the industrial structural adjustment on the unemployment rate based on the assumptions that labor transfer between different sectors are time consuming, a theoretical model of inflow and outflow has been established, then the theoretical analysis concluded that the difference of cross-sector employment growth rate is positively correlated with the overall unemployment rate. Nowadays the international vertical specialization is so popular, the intra-industry upgrading influences the employment structure in two aspects by creating a simple model of intermediate inputs:on one hand, increasing the demand for highly skilled workers; on the other hand, expanding the wage gap between high-skilled and low-skilled labor workers. Finally, the way for industrial structural upgrading to impact on the employment and conduction obstacles in a segmental labor market are analysised. There are three mianly pathes related to the industrial structural upgrading and employment adjustment:price effect, income effect and technical correlation effect. The labor migration among industries will be changed by four factors in the context of labor market segmentation:barriers to the movement of workers,barriers to job mobility, cost of wage bargaining and labor-post matching efficiency.On the empirical level, firstly, a range of indicators are used to examine the status quo of China's industrial structure and employment. For example, the level of sophistication of the industrial structure, industrial structure change speed, efficiency of the industrial structure, the input-output correlation characteristics, deviation degree of industrial structure, coefficient of binary comparison, employment elasticity, employment size and employment structure, etc. The industrial structure and employment status of China could be judged by combining the "standard model" of international industrial structure and employment structure.Then the paper makes an empirically test of the industrial structural upgrading effects on total employment and employment structure by using a panel data model. In this section two basic employment models are established respectively from the levels of economic growth and investment based on the C-D production function. The impact of the industrial structural upgrading, technological progress and investments on employment are estimated in the expanded model. This dissertation tests the capital stock of 29 provincial-level regions during 1992-2012, using data envelopment analysis (DEA) method to calculate the total factor productivity with the Malmquist productivity index; in order to estimate the total employment effect of industrial structural upgrading and technological progress, the interaction term of these two variables are introduced to the model. Finally, the paper estimates the employment absorption capacity for different industrial sectors by gray correlation method. Grey correlation analysis includes the overall analysis, four stage analysis and internal analysis of the tertiary industry, and the judgment of industrial employment absorption capacity is mainly based on the curve fitting degree between output sequence and employment series, named the correlation degree.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:industrial structural upgrading causes a reduction in total employment, while promotes the employment structure upgrading, the interaction of industrial structural upgrading and technological progress increases total employment. Fixed asset investment promotes economic growth, but could not lead to total employment growth, the investment has a negative correlation with employment structure upgrading because that fixed asset investment is invalid for tertiary industry employment growth. International vertical specialization increases the demand of high-skilled labor, skilled labor and unskilled labor wages gap widened. The effects of technological innovation and real wages on employment are not significant, indicating that technological innovation of scale and efficiency improvement are poor and the ability of consumer-driven economic growth and employment growth is weak. At the same time, this paper combines the international standard model of industrial structure and employment structure, the index calculation results show that industrial structure and employment structure deviation keeps decreasing, the deviation reduction degree is accelerating especially since 2002. The grey correlation analysis shows that the tertiary industry has the strongest employment absorption capacity, but in recent years the second industry output structure and employment associated in the highest correlation degree. Industrial adjustment policies affects the correlation distribution patterns of industrial structure and employment. In the last section of the paper, some measures are proposed, such as:increasing technological innovation investment; diverting investment structure to tertiary industry; development of modern production services; strengthening vocational education and elite education; improvement of the market mechanism and social security system, etc. |
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