Analysis Of The Social Welfare Effects Of China's Population Floating

Population flow is an important driving force for social progress and economic development,and the flow of population across regions,which is not only conducive to the rational allocation of social resources,but also conducive to the economic development of the inflow area.Population mobility is also an important driving force to promote the continuous reform of social system.With the normalization of the flow of the population,and the relevant management system is also constantly adapt and adjust,the cumulative effect of population mobility to promote the deepening of the reform of the relevant system.Social welfare system,as with everyone is closely related to the system,in the process of floating population,and continue to reform and perfect,the influence of floating population on our welfare system,and promote the level of social welfare,for China towards a well-off society in an all-round way has important practical significance.There is an interactive relationship between the floating population and the change of the system,concentration of the flow stage of institutional change can cause the population in the short term.The long term population flow adaptive reform will promote the development of the social system.At the same time,population mobility and social welfare institutions exist interactive relation,but the logic selects one of a one-way drive: floating population social welfare system changes the level of social welfare change,as the direction of research,focuses on the analysis of social welfare system driven by the floating population of evolution and evaluate the effects of floating population on the overall level of social welfare.Specific implementation,this paper,based on the study of the effects of domestic and foreign research on the effects of population mobility and social welfare,leads to the topic of this paper.Choose demography,welfare economics and new institutional economics can be as the support theory,carries on the summary and comments,launches in this paper on the basis of this follow-up study,specific research path and the key content is as follows:First of all,give an empirical analysis of the relationship between population mobility and social welfare changes.Since the founding of China,the population of China has experienced the process from economic driven to political driven market driven by the market.From the point of view of national level,the national interest is original driving force to the floating population,from the point of view of the floating population,except for mandatory national migration,free flow state,people's pursuit of higher social welfare is the main cause of the floating population.The process of floating population also contributed to the social welfare system reform and perfect,with four times the population tide flows are intertwined,the social welfare system of our country also experienced start-up period,development period,frustrations,and recovery period,transition period.Especially since 1984 transition period,China's traditional social welfare system reform,change the past national turnkey overall social welfare practice,formed the state,the collective and the individual together to do the pattern of social welfare undertakings.During this period,the social welfare system of the floating population has been developed from scratch,from the absence of the system to the construction of the system and the overall implementation of the system.Excluded artificially mandatory population migrations were observed for the reform and opening up in 1978 since,freely in a market economy under the population flow process can be found that China's population has started to flow from rural to urban,from the Midwest owe developed area flows to the eastern developed areas in the process,not only for their income and welfare level has improved,and on into the overall economic development also has the leading role.But at the same time,the floating population also caused the outflow population loss,shortage of labor,the inflow of resources carrying pressure rise,infrastructure construction is lagging behind other issues,the level of social welfare,the floating population both positive effect,negative effects.Secondly,in-depth analysis of Amartya Sen's capability approach under the framework of "function and ability" space of the social welfare function,and the comparative analysis of the human social development index(HDI),HDI expansion based on the index system,with the spirit of science,maneuverability,on principle,dynamic and relative independence first,adopt system analysis method,according to the relevant indicators of social welfare involved,without any restrictions,as comprehensively as possible one one lists,and then use the method of theoretical analysis,from the "function" and "ability" perspective,connotation,characteristics and development of social welfare potential comprehensive analysis the index and reference to the domestic and foreign related research uses the frequency,select the index with the stability and continuity of data.This paper constructs the evaluation index system of social welfare level.The index system includes two dimensions of "function" and "ability",covering income level,consumption level,housing,health,education,social security,travel and leisure,and the natural environment 8 of 34 indexes.It is a beneficial exploration of the system and scientific evaluation of the current social welfare level in our country.Thirdly,the level of social welfare in our country is calculated by fuzzy logic.In the calculation method,fuzzy mathematics evaluation method is introduced.The main process includes: pattern recognition and fuzzy,fuzzy inference system,fuzzy rule and fuzzy reasoning,fuzzy implication and solution,using time series data to calculate the level of social welfare since 1978.The results showed that: enhance the level of China's social welfare is a slow and repeated the process,at the beginning of the reform and opening up,economic and social development of breaking the institutional constraints,social welfare is present a rapid growth,after in the late 80 s of the 20 th century,the overall level of social welfare stagnant,in the late 1980 s even decline in welfare,the situation continued to 1992 the socialist market economic system established.1996 China's social welfare level increased year by year,1996-2003 China's social welfare level increased from 0.4402 to 0.6122,an increase of as high as 39.07%.After 2003,by the overheated investment,low consumption and environmental deterioration,the level of social welfare has slowed.But after the financial crisis of 2008,with the implementation of the recovery of economic activity,the national policy of the livelihood of engineering and environmental problems seriously and social welfare of China's growth rate has increased,reached a reform and open in 2014.The highest level,and shows growth trend.Fourthly is an empirical analysis of the relationship between population mobility and social welfare.The population rate of rural to urban population flow rate variable into the social welfare effect analysis,the variable parameter state space model to analyze the relationship between floating population and social welfare and to assess the impact on social welfare level of China's floating population,and focuses on the analysis of the influence of population from rural to urban flow,on the level of social welfare.Correlation analysis showed that there was a long-term relationship between the population flowing rate,between the control variables and the level of social welfare two cointegration relationship exists,the population flow rate,between the control variables and the level of social welfare has long term relationship;"the rate of rural-urban migrants,between the control variables and the level of social welfare a cointegration relationship exists,namely" rural to urban population flow rate,between the control variables and the level of social welfare.From the trend: since 1978,our overall population flow on the level of social welfare showing stage characteristics,through the short term rapid rise decline significantly,after a slight rebound and adjust smoothly and rapidly rising.Finally,in a higher level tends to stable process.Over the same period,"rural to urban floating population" on the level of social welfare function trends of this and similar,but effects of population from rural to urban flow ",on the level of social welfare than the effect of the floating population to the social welfare is more significant.Therefore,to improve the city's floating population from rural areas to the level of social welfare has more obvious effect on enhancing the overall level of China's social welfare.Finally,combined with the conclusions of empirical analysis and empirical analysis,the consideration of the characteristics of the current round of population flow of the tide,on the basis of existing social welfare system transition path,clear future direction of reform proposed the policy recommendations of the corresponding social welfare system: establishing the household registration management system that suits the floating population,social security mechanism,Suiqian children's education system,innovation of community management mode,let floating population live and work in peace and contentment,promote economic development,improve the overall level of social welfare.In this study,we may realize the following three aspects of innovation:The first innovation is the topic of the paper.From the current literature,for the study of population mobility and social welfare,scope limited between floating population and narrow sense of the social security system in the study on relationship of research or floating population and income level or level of economic development,this paper on the topic according to the guiding ideology of 18 complete the construction of a well-off society,adapt to the requirements under the new situation,will choose in a higher level of social welfare category,extension of the existing research and improve.The secoond innovation is the index system and calculation method.Currently the index system to measure the level of social welfare mostly is Amartya sen under reasonable assumptions proposed index formula: wt= yt(1-Gt),.Among them,y t is the per capita income,Gt is the Gini coefficient.The research in foreign countries as a reference on the measure index system of social welfare foundation,combined with China's actual economic and social development characteristics,build a covers "function" and "ability" three level index system of two dimensions,on the level of social welfare in our country were comprehensive investigation,the evaluation method based on fuzzy logic is used in the calculation of the concrete,improve the objectivity of the calculation results.The third innovation is the model building.In the relationship between exploring China's population flow and the level of social welfare,proceed from the analysis of the dynamic,using the state space model to build the "floating population--the level of social welfare" function,in the model specific implementation,in view of the features of China's floating population,using variable parameter method of estimation and hypothesis testing,it is concluded that the very practical guiding significance to the research conclusion.In summary,this paper from a new perspective,the introduction of floating population related variables in welfare economics is the study of the traditional framework,through the summary of longitudinal changes in the level of population and welfare system,social welfare since the founding of the nation,drawing lessons from home and abroad for the social welfare level of the evaluation system,the research constructed evaluation index system of the level of social welfare that makes a quantitative research using fuzzy logic evaluation method,and the use of state space model and time-varying parameter methods to study the social welfare effects of population flow,cross demography,using the related theory of new institutional economics and welfare economics in the research process,is a useful attempt in the interdisciplinary field,has a certain theoretical value and the practical significance.