| Global aging is an irreversible trend.World Health Organization forecasted that the world’s population age over 60 years old(including 60 years)will exceed 50%from 2005 to 2050.In developed countries and regions,aged 60 years and above go up from 245 million in 2005 to 406 million in 2050.In 2001,the United Nations’World Population Report indicates that there were about 400 million people living in developing countries in 2002 and that by 2025,it would rise to 840 million,accounts for 70%of the world’s population.By 2050,about 80%of the elderly age over 60 will live in developing countries,the total amount is about 2 billion.With the increasing of the world’s population,especially the growth of the oldest old,the total amount of disabled elderly is also growing rapidly.It is expected that in the next 20 years,the number of elderly over 65 years old will double in number.It is predictable that,with the increased aging population,the growing number of disabled and semi-disabled elderly would turn the long-term care into social risk.How to achieve the sustainable development of long-term care for the elderly under the increasingly aging conditions is an important problem that any country and government need to face with.Although some developed countries have constructed long-term care systems,the implementation process is also facing many problems.With the growing financial expenditure of the elderly long-term care,a heavy burden is emerging.However,the economy is not the only factor restricting the sustainable development of long-term care for the elderly.It is also necessary to discuss the issue of long-term care and sustainable development from the perspective of political,cultural and resource supply.In recent years,the Chinese government has begun to pay attention to the long-term care of the elderly,it also introduced a series of regulations to develop service system for the long-term care and promote long-term care insurance pilot experiment.It also stressed the importance of care for the elderly.It is necessary to encourage and support the development of care system for the elderly and provide policy support to the institutions that provide long-term care services for the elderly according to the actual situation.However,due to the late beginning,limited time and the slow development,our country has not yet formed a comprehensive long-term care system for the elderly by now,and the policy and management of elderly long-term care are fragment which restrict the further development of China’s long-term care.At the same time,the existing long-term care models such as home care,community care,and institutional care also confront the conflict of the resource supply and service demand,which cannot satisfy the requirements of the elderly care in the future.Based on the above background,how to achieve the sustainable development of long-term care for elderly is not only a focus for countries in the field of public policy,but also to an important determination for the success of the pension career.In view of this,this paper explores the pathway and method of realizing the sustainable development of the elderly in the long-term care and explores the sustainable development of the long-term care for the elderly from macro and micro aspects.The paper analyzes the problems and solutions of the long-term care system of different countries in the process of construction and implementation,and how to ensure that the long-term care system of the developed countries and the long-term care and protection of the elderly in China is analyzed by the policy.The sustainable development of long-term care system,combined with the theory of path dependence,explains the internal driving forces of the development path of long-term care systems in different countries.At the micro level,we explored how to assess the sustainability of long-term care programs and institutions.Through the fuzzy Delphi method and AHP analytic hierarchy process,we construct the evaluation model of the sustainable development of the long-term nursing project in US Michigan area and explore the fuzzy TOPSIS method to examine the proposed model.It would be a great example for the evaluation of the Long-term program for other places.Finally,this article also discusses the sustainable development pathway of China’s long-term care,combined with the theory of welfare pluralism,from the perspective of policy supply,financial economy,industrial development,care system and service supply and other aspects.The main result discusses the effective allocation of resources for sustainable development of long-term care with the feasible path.The main results and conclusions of this paper can be summarized as follows:Firstly,in developed countries,the development of long-term care for the elderly process has always been adjusted around the "sustainable" principle.In developed countries with a higher degree of population aging,more perfect social welfare,its expenditure is growing and the policy is not sufficient for the demand of the long-term care in the society.Thus,these countries are constantly perfecting their long-term care system around the realization of the financial sustainability,ensuring that the system is set up scientifically and boosting the supply of long-term care services.At the same time,they set up a legal system for the long-term care system to provide a solid basement and adequate protection.Secondly,the social culture and civic awareness have played a very important role in the evolution of the.elderly long-term care system.Culture and common consensus have great contribution to the construction and development of the policy,it has a great impact on the decision of the long-term care service model,service delivery system and the long-term care policy.In China,filial piety culture and filial thoughts have gone through thousands of years of development and it has been deeply implanted in the hearts of everyone,it has a great impact on the supporting the elderly and caring policy.When filial thoughts are popular,the family support and social support of the elderly enjoy a corresponding improvement.In the era of filial thoughts collapse,the elderly support and care service is very weak.Therefore,in the process of developing long-term care for the elderly in our country,we must closely focus on the gene of "filial piety culture",profoundly expound the cultural origin of this issue,and promote the social atmosphere of the new filial piety together with the state,the market,the non-government organization and family to unite the elderly long-term care system.Thirdly,establishing a scientific supervision and evaluation system to guide long-term care projects and service agencies to sustainable development.Long-term care program is the cell of long-term care system and a long-term care service.It is a carrier of long-term care systems.Its sustainable development capacity is directly related to whether the social resources are effectively allocated and utilized,whether the government’s policies are effective and whether the elderly can get high-quality services.The construction of the evaluation system of sustainable development capacity of long-term care programs should follow the principles of scientific,feasible,developmental and applicability,and should be combined with the real condition of the program.The evaluation includes economy,organizational settings,community environment and policy support and other dimensions.Governments and manage sector should set up incentive policy and phase-out mechanisms to encourage programs to meet the requirements of sustainable development,and resolutely eliminate programs with no efficiency.Fourthly,after 1949,the characteristics and path dependence of long-term care is reflected as "socialization of long-term care","pace with the filial piety culture" and"government-led institutional changes." With the development of society,the change of family structure and way of life,the idea of people’s support for the elderly has changed.The traditional family support has been dysfunctional and the socialized long-term care for the elderly is an inevitable trend for future development.Filial culture has strong cultural tension and moral restraint in Chinese society.It not only regulates the decision-making of children’s parental support but also has a strong and dynamic effect on the long-term care system of the elderly in China.In the era with no filial piety culture,the elderly care system of the state also appeared in the vacuum system;In the new filial piety era,the long-term care system for the elderly also embrace the development opportunities.The government-led is an important feature of the development of long-term care system,the process is "point to flat" as progressive deductive development.Fifthly,the elderly long-term care should design from policy supply,finance and economics,industrial development,care system and service supply perspectives,and try to explore a government-led,government,market,social organization,family and individual cooperate model.In the process of development,filial piety is the core value orientation,the principle focuses on caring the weak,pay attention to the combination of fairness and efficiency,and follow the basic requirement of welfare pluralism.From the policy supply perspective,establishing a comprehensive development strategy,breaking down the long-term care system barriers;Improve the legal supply of long-term care to consolidate the development of the system.From the financial and economic perspective,exploring sustainable diversified financing model,and vigorously develop the care economy,to make our elderly long-term care industry form a diversified involved promising industry.From the perspective of industrial development,we must improve the long-term care service management system,by constructing scientific guidance and set up supervision mechanism to ensure the sustainable development of long-term care institutions.We should improve the long-term care support system,keep the balance between family care and institutional care,and promote the synergistic integration of long-term care and medical services.We should nurture the development of long-term care services for the elderly.On one hand,we should promote the professionalization and professionalization of care workers.On the other hand,we should provide support and subsidies to the informal caregivers of the family in order to cope with increasing demand for long-term care. |