Study Of The Initial Passenger Flow Evolution And Its Influential Factors In Urban Rail Transit

By the end of 2015,44 cities in China had been allowed to construct rail transit system,10 of which realized network operation with more than 100 kilometers.At the initial stage of rail transit operation with only one or two lines,the obvious changes of passenger flow often have great influence on the operation,which call for urgent study.The authors in this paper think that the rail transit with one or two lines is only initial network and the passenger flo w is also the initial passenger flow.The paper carries out extensive analysis for the evolution law and mechanism of passenger flow in Xian rail transit at this stage,discusses the the main influential factors of the passenger flow changes,construct passenger flow prediction model on the basis of the changing characteristic parameters and put forward the relationship among the passenger volume and arrival volume at all the stations,surrounding land need at the initial stage and the situation of the public bus line arrival numbers.The main contents in the paper are as follows:(1)The paper studies the passenger flow increase and changing law at the initial stage of rail transit network.The authors take the initial network passenger flow as the start,and then analyze the mechanism of the time and space influence on the passenger flow evolution at the the initial stage of the whole lines and their stations.The analysis finds that there are two obvious characteristics: the sudden passenger changes on the line-the jumping changes in the transit network result in the periodical sudden changes.The second characteristics is the passenger flow evolution balance between stations-the gradual balance of passenger distribution from the initial station to all other stations with the gradual passenger decreases between stations with the time continuation.(2)The paper studies the passenger changing model at the initial stage of rail transit network.The authors,on the basis of the obtained passenger flow operation date,systematically analyze all the factors that manifest their characteristics but influence the rail transit passenger flow and propose the idea of minimal factors,including urban social and economic development levels,month changes of passenger movement,week changes and holiday changes;and space minimal factors,including types of rail transit stations,dwelling types along the line,the land areas and connecting conditions with the public transit.The study introduces the virtual variables and conduct gradual regression with actual passenger flow data in Xian to obtain the relation model with obvious proposed effect between the initial passenger flow in Xian and space influential factors.The results show that there are always sudden changes in February,Friday,Saturday,January,Sunday June,May,March,December,November,April August,September July,October(from large to small mileage of rail running).There is also a sudden small increase of passenger flow before the May day and the National holidays.Compared with the existing method,the advantage of this model is that the predicted results can better respond to the fluctuation of week changes and month changes and more accurately fit the analysis results of the daily and sudden passenger flow changes at the initial stage.(3)The paper also studies the influential factors and evolution characteristics of all the network stations at the initial stage.With passenger flow of all the stations,the authors propose the classifying method for different stations and analytic method for the exploration of surrounding area land development strength.On the basis of AFC data and ArcGIS tool,the whole day passenger flow,morning and evening rush hours passenger flow and OD matrix can be obtained.The authors classify the influential areas as 400 meters and 800 meters.They calculate surrounding different land areas and strength along the rail They also discuss the methods for the passenger flow during the whole day,morning and evening rush hours,types of stations,the station locations,the land development strength within 400 meters and 800 meters and the relations with public bus service.The results in the study of Xian example show that there exists a close relationship between the passenger fl ow at the initial stage and business and office areas within 400 meters.There is also greater influence of station location on the passenger flow.As there is a gradual increase of OD on the outer areas of rail transit stations with time going,the obvious effect for the outer area land value can be seen.And there is a higher relativity between the number of public bus stations and rail transit stations.The present study has the following creative points:1)The paper analyzes the effect of time and space influence on the passenger flow at the initial stage and finds that there exist two obvious features: a sudden change of passenger flow has something to do with the increase of miles and there is a balance of passenger flow evolution between stations.2)The paper,under the guidance of stepwise regression analysis,sets up a prediction model for the combination of time and space influence at the initial passenger flow,which can better respond to changing influence of rail mileage,service days,week changes,month changes and typical days’ changes with multi-linear gradual regression method.3)On the basis of station classification and the analytic method for surrounding area land development strength,combined with the comparison of the impact of the l and development strength within 400 meters and 800 meters on the passenger flow,the study finds that there exists a great influence of the office and business areas and station locations on the passenger flow,there exists obvious effect of rail transit stations on the outer area land development,and there also exists a higher relativity law between the number of public bus stations and rail transit stations with increase of OD total volume and the proportion of time FC.The results of the present study can be used for the urban passenger flow evolution during the construction and operation of rail transit and the prediction of passenger flow at the initial stage.It can also provide references for urban rail transit planning,design,equipment and devices allocation,vehicle purchases,operation management and land-use adjustment during the construction of rail transit for both China and other countries.