The Determinants And Peak Prediction Ofhousehold CO₂ Emissions In China

Under the background of responding and mitigating climate change,the 17^th,18^th and 19^th CPC National Congress made a great effort to promote the ecological civilization construction.Based on low carbon economic,low carbon society and low carbon consumption pattern,China could achieve low carbon reduction for building a socialist ecological civilization construction with Chinese characteristics.This work gave the research requirements of household CO₂ emissions in China through understanding and summarizing the domestic and international research status including the assessment methods,the convergence trends,the determinants and the peak predictions of CO₂ emissions.First,this work calculated carbon emissions from household sector’s scale during 1997²014 period based on IPCC’s Reference Approach,Input-output Analysis and Consumer Lifestyle Approach.Then,this work analyzed the convergence trends and determinants of household CO₂ emissions based onβconvergence and panel data models.Last,this work explored the peak value of household CO₂ emissions and per capita household CO₂ emissions in urban,rural and the whole China according to Kaya identity and Scenario Analysis.Based on the results of the variations,the convergence,the determinants and the peak value of household CO₂ emissions,we provided scientific evidences and put forward effective suggestions for low carbon economic,low carbon consumption and carbon emission reduction measures and policies.The research conclusions of this work were as follows:（1）From the perspective of assessments:both the total of household CO₂emissions and per capita household CO₂ emissions increased from 1997 to 2014 in China,urban,rural,eastern,central and western regions.On the other hand,there were obvious regional differences in household CO₂ emissions and per capita household CO₂emissions both between urban and rural China and between eastern,central and western regions.Based on different household consumption behavior,the resources of household CO₂ emissions in China were derived from“food”and“cloth”to"living",“transportation”and“service”.（2）From the perspective of convergence:both the total household CO₂ emissions,per capita household CO₂ emissions and household CO₂ emissions from different consuming behavior hadβabsolute convergence in China,urban,rural,eastern,central and western regions.On the other hand,βrelative convergence occurred in China,urban,rural and eastern regions’household CO₂ emissions and rural and eastern urban per capita household CO₂ emissions.Besides,there wereβrelative convergence trend in household CO₂ emissions from all different consuming behavior in China.（3）From the perspective of different influencing factors:the population size and the consumption tendency had the most positive effect on the total household CO₂emissions in China,urban,rural,eastern,central and western regions.Consumption tendency had the most positive effect on per capita household CO₂ emissions in China,urban,rural,eastern,central and western regions.From the angle of different household consuming behavior,population size had the most positive effect on“food”,“living”,“transportation”and“service”household CO₂ emissions.（4）From the perspective of the peak prediction:household CO₂ emissions and per capita household CO₂ emissions would not achieve the peak value before 2050 based on“Red Scenario”and“Orange Scenario”in China,urban and rural areas.By considering the current response and mitigation policy to adapt climate change,special policies and mitigation measures needed to be made on the household consumer sector.The peak value of household CO₂ emissions would be achieved based on“Green Scenario”and“Blue Scenario”in China.Based on Green Scenario,peak value time of household CO₂ emissions in China,urban and rural would be achieved in 2045,2045 and 2041,respectively;the peak value would be 64.76 hundred million t CO₂,48.76 hundred million t CO₂ and 16.11 hundred million t CO₂,respectively.Peak value time of per capita household CO₂ emissions in China,urban and rural would be achieved in 2046,2044 and 2047,respectively;the peak value will be 4.50 t CO₂/person,4.63 t CO₂/person and 4.15 t CO₂/person,respectively.Based on Blue Scenario,peak value time of household CO₂ emissions in China,urban and rural would be achieved in 2042,2042 and 2040,respectively;the peak value will be 59.91 hundred million t CO₂,44.73 hundred million t CO₂ and 15.25 hundred million t CO₂,respectively.Peak value time of per capita household CO₂ emissions in China,urban and rural would be achieved in 2042,2041 and 2044,respectively;the peak value would be 4.17 t CO₂/person,4.42 t CO₂/person and 3.56 t CO₂/person,respectively.On the basis of analyzing the variation tendency,the convergence tendency,the influencing factors and the peak value of household CO₂ emissions,it could provide scientific evidence and theoretical basis for carbon emission reduction targets（in 2009,the Chinese government promised to reduce 40%⁴5%carbon emissions per GDP in year 2020 based on year 2005 at Copenhagen Climate Change Conference,and in 2015,the Chinese government promised to achieve its peak value of carbon emissions around2030 at Paris Climate Change Conference）.In the future,the government,the policy makers and the consumers needed to do their best for achieving low carbon society through adjusting the carbon emission structure,optimizing the consumption structure and improving the quality of population under the advanced and improved living standard and life quality.From what we analyzed in this work,the scientific evidences and effective suggestions were provided for low carbon economic,for low carbon consumption and for the socialist ecological civilization construction.