| With the continuous high-speed operation of the national economy,the power industry has experienced a rare opportunity for development,and the power installed capacity has deservedly ranked first in the world.Due to resource limitations,for a long time,coal-fired power generation will remain the mainstream of power installed in China.As of the end of 2015,China’s total installed capacity has exceeded 1.5 billion kilowatts,of which coal-fired power generation nearly reach 10 million kilowatts.Coal-fired power plants produce large quantities of solid-based emissions every day,mainly referring to fly ash,which are directly piled up in the open air due to the high cost of innocuous disposal.With the gradual improvement of environmental protection requirements,the solid emiss ions that can not be digested by market are transported to a specific site for landfilled,rolled,buried,and covered by vegetation,so that the land,transportation and renovation costs are high,and there exists a great environmental risk.As environmental capacity is becoming less tolerant for solid emissions,power generation companies are under increasing pressure.Most of fly ash is in the form of hollow particle structure,which makes it easy to spread in the case of wind and will cause the problem of secondary dust pollution.The harmful material in fly ash will leach into water when piled up and storaged too long,making the number of suspensions increased,and water will be fluoridized or chloridized.Moreover,fly ash can infiltrate and spread into the surrounding land and lead to salinization owing to its high salt and alkali content.And then the land will be no longer suitable for the crops to grow,which seriously influences agricultural production and threaten the health of the ecological environment.Under the support of advanced building materials manufacturing technology,plant solid emissions such as fly ash and gypsum can be recycled in the process of building materials production.Recently,due to the quick pace of city construction,building materials market has a large demand of thede solid emissions,contributing to a relif in solving the problem of waste disposal.However,it also results in several management problems,including the low rate of comprehensive utilization of fly ash,low degree of information technology;the difficulty to determine the proportion of sale and disposal owing to the unbalanced development between regions,disorderly vicious market competition resulting in waste of resources,difficult to carry out the policy and control the environmental pollution.Therefore,this paper makes a study of the problems exsiting in sale and scheduling management of coal-fired power plant solid emissions described above.The content and innovation achievements of this research includes:(1)Propose a new market management mode of coal-fired power plant solid emissions based on information forecasting,bidding,scheduling optimization decision and risk assessment model.This paper studies the management model of solid emissions from thermal power plants,analyzes the status of sales project management mode of the main solid emissions fly ash in coal-fired power plant,and studies the current various modes of fly ash sales project and every aspects of sales management.And then,this paper analyzes the present management drawbacks and summarizes the pros and cons of all kinds of modes according to their characteristics,and proposes a new market management mode which is on the basis of optimal forecasting theory,market bidding theory and scheduling optimization theory.(2)Under the new market management mode proposed in this paper,the comprehensive optimization forecasting model of solid emissions from coal-fired power plant based on BP-GRNN-BFM is established.This paper conducts research on forecasting model widely uesd in solid emissions output and sales from thermal power plants,discusses the forecasting models that are suitable for its law,and select BP neural network model,generalized regression neural network model(GRNN)and bayesian optimization forecasting model(BFM)so as to forecast solid waste production and sales volume.Then,choose the best prediction outcome from the above forecasting models using the forecasting optimization method and construct comprehensive forecasting optimization model.Its production and sales forecasting results will be used in subsequent calculations to determine the bid optimization strategy and optimize scheduling decisions.(3)Under the new market management mode proposed in this paper,the bidding optimization model of coal-fired power plant solid emissions market based on fuzzy game equilibrium is established.This paper studies bidding optimization model of coal-fired power plant solid emissions market,analyzes the bidding behavior of coal-fired power plant solid emissions market,and establishes a mixed strategy model to show the earnings of coal-fired power plant of various combinations of possible strategies based on the forecast ing results of solid emissions production and sales,and builds the fuzzy equilibrium game model to describe the competitors bidding behavior using fuzzy sets method.On the basis of the above research of bidding model,we establish a bidding strategy optimization model of coal-fired power plant solid emissions based on fuzzy game equilibrium.Its bid optimization strategy results will be used in subsequent calculations to determine the scheduling optimization decisions.(4)Under the new market management mode proposed in this paper,the multi-objective scheduling optimization decision model of coal-fired power plant solid emissions based on forecasting and bidding is established.This paper s tudies multi-objective scheduling optimization decision model of solid emissions in thermal power plant,determines the proportion of solid waste disposal and sales in each thermal power plant based on the solid emissions disposal costs and sales revenue,and adjusts the proportion of each market according to the price obtained from the production and sales comprehensive optimization forecasting results and bidding optimization strategy model,and then,constructs the multi-objective scheduling optimization decision model of solid emissions in thermal power plant based on forecasting and bidding and comprehensive benefit evaluation index system.(5)Under the new market management mode proposed in this paper,the risk assessment model of coal-fired power plant solid emissions market based on AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is established.O n the basis of the analys is of the risk influence factors of coal-fired power plant solid emissions market,the risk assessment index system of coal-fired power plant solid emissions market is designed according to the characteristics of coal-fired power plant solid emissions market.The comprehensive risk assessment is implemented using the analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,which can improve the enthusiasm of both the supply and demand sides and maintain the orderly,stable and healthy operation of coal-fired power plant solid emissions market.(6)Under the new market management mode proposed in this paper,the transaction information management platform of the solid emissions in thermal power plant is established.This paper studies the construction and management of the transaction information management platform of the solid emissions in coal-fired power plant based on the proposed theoretical modeling.And the management platform includes 5 parts of construction and application including bidding management,sales forecasting,transaction bidding,sale scheduling and risk assessment analysis,which realizes the closed loop management of solid emissions in power plants and improves the management efficiency and the comprehensive benefit of the sales project.In this paper,a new solid emissions market management mode and platform is proposed based on the study of several models with ragard to solid emission production forecasting,sales forecasting,sales scheduling and risk assessment.In the premise of ensuring the maximum economic benefits and environmental benefits,it can realize reasonable scheduling of sales and non-hazardous disposal of solid emissions.Therfore,it can not only bring considerable benefits to power plant and customers,but also reduce pressure came from the surrounding environmen to the greatest degree.To sum up,it has constructive significance for the comprehensively utilizing the coal-generation solid emissions,reducing environmental pollution and improving the overall efficiency. |
