| Climate change and human activities are the two driving factors that affecting hydrological cycle and water resources evolution law,this effect has become the current research focus in the field of hydroscience.The influence of climate change on hydrological cycle factors inevitably leads to the spatial and temporal variations of river basin water resources.At the same time,the influence of human activities on the hydrological cycle is increasingly significant,mainly feature for land use/cover change,construction of large water conservancy projects and the like,those will cause the change in underlying surface conditions,thus affect the mechanism of runoff in the basin.So the hydrological cycle feature in strong human activity areas have a clearly difference from that in weak human activities area,specifically feature that hydrological cycle is given priority to natural law in mountain areas,while the hydrological cycle has obvious "nature and human" composite characteristics in plain areas.But the traditional hydrological cycle research mainly focused on river basin scale.There are obvious difference between the mountains and plains hydrological cycle laws,it is is very necessary to further research and contrast hydrological cycle from the mountains and plains as regional scale,respectively.The climate system in interlace zone is in cross each other and influence each other,the annual and seasonal of precipitation change drastically,it is easy to form the drought-flood disasters,In this zone,the hydrological cycle evolution law and characteristics different from other zones.The hydrological cycle of evolvement laws and the influence of climate change and human activities on hydrological cycle in interlace zone should be quantitative researched,this has important scientific significance and research value for promotion of compound hydrological cycle science basic theory,system simulation technology and interdisciplinary fusion.Huaihe river basin is located in interlace zone of warm temperate and subtropical.This climate characteristic was distinctive on account of dual influences of warm temperate semi-humid continental climate and subtropical monsoon climate.Shaying river is the largest tributary of the Huaihe river,watershed area is 40000 square kilometers.Shaying river has big population density,intensive human activities,large-scale industrial and agricultural production.Shaying river's the hydrological cycle change more dramatic and distinctive on account of combined influence of climate change in interlace zone and human activities.The existing literature is still lack of research on hydrological cycle evolvement law in interlace zone under the condition of changes in climate.On that account,this paper built WACM model that suitable for climate change and strong human activity area.And then applied it to simulate the hydrological cycle change and its space-time evolution laws in Shaying river basin.The influence of human activity and climate change on hydrological cycle change was also quantitative analyzed.This paper selected the north of Haihe river as the contrast research areas.Haihe river basin belongs to the temperate zone of east Asia monsoon climate,feature distinct climate characteristics.At the same time,Haihe river basin were affected by intensive human activities.Finally,by contrastive analysis between the north of Haihe river and Shayinghe,the commonness and characteristics of hydrological cycle in the different climate was analyzed,the unique law of hydrological cycle evolution in interlace zone was systematically summarized.In this paper,the main work done is as follows:(1)The research about the hydrological cycle mechanism under the circumstance of climate change and human activity at home and abroad were reviewed.The papers describes development history,model,key technique and hot research of hydrological cycle research under of change climate.The research about the influence of climate change and human activity on the hydrological cycle were reviewed.The existing literature is still lack of research on hydrological cycle evolvement law in interlace zone under the condition of changes in climate.On that account,the main content of the thesis,the innovation points and technical route were come up.(2)The WACM model was builtWACM,Water Allocation and Cycle Model is large-scale hydrological cycle model.This paper explain the model structure and the principle and elaborate database construction method about weather,soil,land use,etc.The WACM4.0 was built for Shaying river,two periods was set,historical period is from 1971 to1980,Changing environment period is from 2001 to 2010.Shaying river was divided 37389 valid unit for simulating the day scale.Model was calibrated and verified by comparison of actual value and simulation value of monthly runoff,groundwater water resources and the total water resources year by year.The results show that the WACM4.0 can satisfy the precision requirement.(3)The hydrological cycle mechanism and response in interlace zone were analyzedThis paper calculate water flux of basin-wide,plains,mountain based on simulation data from 1971 to 1980.And then the space-time evolution and distribution characteristics of hydrological cycle elements,such as evaporation,surface runoff,soil water and groundwater was comprehensive studied.Finally,the water flux and the evolution law in plains and mountain were compared and analyzed.Results show that the historical period of shaying river basin are positive in water surplus,surface,soil,underground water storage.Plain is influenced by human activity level is higher than the mountains.(4)The hydrological cycle response and mechanism under of the changing environment in Shaying river basin were comprehensive analyzed.WACM4.0 model set four scenarios,including S1(historical period),S2(only climate change scenarios),S3(only the utilization of land resources situation and S4(only the utilization of water resources situation.The hydrological cycle process was simulated in four scene.The response results of hydrological cycle including,temperature,underlying surface changes,water utilization was analyzed.The analysis results of hydrological cycle response including evaporation,ground surface flow,inflow amount,variable storage was simulated.By comparative analysis of different scenarios,the respective response and impact of climate change and human activity on hydrological cycle in Shaying river basin,plains and mountains were quantitatively analyzed.The results show that human activity is the most important factor that affect the hydrological cycle,whole basin accounted for 67%,plain accounted for 69%.For mountain,climate change is the most important factor that affect the hydrological cycle,accounted for 61%.(5)The hydrological cycle response between different basins were comprehensive compared and analyzed.The north of Haihe river were select to compared with Shaying river.Firstly,based on the research achievements of others and simulation results,the water flux of two river including total basins,plains,mountains respectively compared and analyzed.And then the impact of human activities on hydrological cycle in two basins,including total basins,plains,and mountains were simulated and calculated.Finally,the general and unique characteristics of the hydrological cycle evolution law in different basins were analyzed,and the unique features of hydrological cycle in interlace zone of North and South were analyzed.The results showed that:(1)the proportion of hydrological cycle affected by humans:North of Haihe basin that accounted for 69%is high than shaying river that ccounted for 59%.(2)In climate interlace zone,rainfall concentrate,especially mountain is relatively more concentrated,runoff quickly converge to the plain area,and plains area is large and flat,in this area the soil medium include black sand ginger soil with the poor permeability,so Shaying river easily lead to waterlogging.(3)Shaying river basin,itself between the north and the south also presents the different feature of interlace zone. |
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