Research Of Climate Changes And Response Of Hydrology And Water Resources In The Upper Reaches Of Hei River

Upper reaches of Hei river are the headstream of water resource of the whole basins, so systemic analysis of climate changes of this area (especially extreme climate event) and effect of climate changes on hydrologic and water resource system is not only beneficial to the logical programming and management of water resource in mid and lower reaches of Hei river, but also important to the economic development of this region.This research contains three parts in all.(1)Based on the daily precipitation and daily maximal/ minimum temperature of 2011～2100a on 50km×50km grids which are parts of the results of PRECIS simulating the four scenarios issued by IPPC in 2000, analysis and statistic about the distribution of time and space of the climate changes (especially the probability of extreme events) in upper reaches of Hei river in this decade are done in this article. The results show that in the following one hundred years, compared to baseline (1961-1990), annual average precipitation under the four scenes has increased trend. High waterlogging won't appear, however, big waterlogging encountering in five or six years, big drought encountering in ten years and high drought encountering in thirty years exist popularly. Probability of extreme minimum temperature events decreases, but probability of extreme maximum temperature events increases rapidly, and high temperature areas have trend to enlarge gradually with time.(2) By using DEM, remote sensing information, meteorology data and hydrological observation, this article verifies the applicability of VIC model in upper reaches of Hei river. Results show that VIC model has better applicability in this area, efficiency coefficient of VIC model reaches 91%, and this model can basically simulate the change progress of runoff in this regional.(3)one-way coupling of PRECIS regional climate model and VIC model. Putting the results of PRECIS model into VIC model, simulating the evaporation and runoff of the upper reaches of Hei river in the following one hundred years to research the effect of climate changes on hydrologic and water resource system. Results show that compared to the former period, annual average evaporation of each statistical period increases all. But annual evaporation in each statistical period (30a) hasn't trend to increase. In addition, probability of normal year in each statistical period is less than that in baseline.