Research On Forest Carbon Sink Shadow Price Based On Energy Ecological Footprint

With the increasing economic growth CO2emission from energy consumption has beensurging. As global warming became worsen and more CO2was gathering in the air, ecologicalimbalance has threatened our world, the international were focusing on global warming.Chinese has been the largest CO2emitter, confronting great pressure to sequester CO2emission.Forest ecosystem is regarded as the most efficient carbon sink in the terrestrial ecosystem.According to the seventh forest resource inventory, Chinese carbon storage has reached7.811billion t. it was estimated that by2020, forest reserves would reach1.3billion cubic meterif forest sustainable management continued. Therefore, it is important to take account of forestecosystem carbon storage service in initiating the CO2abatement measures to lessen CO2sequestration cost.Once forest carbon storage service value has been interiorized in the market sectors’production cost, the CO2sequestration cost of every sector would change. Our aim is to discusshow to price forest carbon sink service to reach a new balance for every sector under theconstraint of CO2sequestration. Pricing forest carbon sink service will underlie forestecosystem carbon sink service compensation, also it will be vital for carbon tax policy making.The content of the paper is as follows:The first part, it takes carbon tax as the starting point, constructs carbon tax computablegeneral equilibrium model to analyze the impression from carbon tax. Based on2007socialaccounting matrix, every sector’s CO2emission is estimated in the initial equilibrium state.Including CO2emission from intermediate high carbon energy input, from the finalconsumption, from import and export and so on.The second part, based on all sectors’ CO2emission and our forest ecosystem carbonstorage capacity, every sector’s energy ecological footprint is estimated. Our forest carbon sinkcapacity is estimated by net primary productivity of ecological productive land multiplied thearea of productive land,also carbon sink productivity of forest tree is added to total carbon sinkcapacity. Comparing Chinese energy ecological footprint with forest carbon sink capacity in2007, it concludes that energy ecological footprint overpasses forest carbon sink capacity,therefore, our energy consumption is unsustainable.The third part expanded input-output model is built for energy-ecological-economic system. In the model forest carbon sink capacity is deemed as the constraint, every sectorshould recover forest carbon sink service to reach a new balance. The other sectors’ forestcarbon sink productivity is based on the forest sector’s technical coefficient in the input-outputtable to expand the new technical coefficient matrix in the expanded input-output model.Solving the expanded model, every sector’s output is divided into two parts, first the output isunder the constraint of forest carbon sink capacity, second the additional output is to recover theforest carbon sink capacity. It reveals that constrained by forest carbon sink capacity, output offorest sector has a great growth, while, other sectors decrease sharply to30%of initial output.That is the fact that other sectors should input more labor and capital to recover forest carbonsink capacity.Sector’s product price in the new equilibrium compared with that price in the initialequilibrium, the difference signifies the average cost of forest carbon sink capacity constraint, ifthe price is negative, the sector has the positive externalities for carbon sink, such as forestsector. If the price is negative, the sector should pay money for forest carbon sink capacityconsumption, such as energy sector. Forest carbon sink shadow price is defined as thedifference of price between the new equilibrium and the initial equilibrium. If the marketoverall welfare does not change with every sector’s payment for the forest carbon sink shadowprice, it is estimated that the social average cost of forest carbon shadow price is about907CY/t CO2.The final part, different tax rates are applied to imitate the forest carbon sink shadow priceshocking the general equilibrium. carbon tax rate is0.5%,1%,2%, the extent of forest carbonsink shadow price shocking the market general equilibrium is different, the result reveals thatcarbon tax rate is1%,and the shocking is mild. Although, the total output is decreasing, trueGDP is lessen, the input of labor and capital falls, CO2emission drops greatly, the mobility oflabor is strong and the behavior of residents’ consumption is responded to price change.Therefore, carbon tax rate is1%, which is better than0.5%and2%to imitate the forest carbonsink shadow price shocking the general equilibrium...