Research On Participators’ Economic Decision-making Modelof Urban Passenger Transportation System

With the rapid development of urbanization and motorization, the imbalancebetween urban passenger transportation’s supply and demand has been aggravated,which has been causing the residents travel efficiency declined, the transportationenvironmental pollution and road network congestion increased. Urban passengertransportation economic policy plays an important role in the sustainabledevelopment of urban passenger transportation system. The rational and flexiblepassenger transportation economic policies and related measures, which will affecttraveler’s behavior to choose a reasonable mode, then regulate and controlpassenger transportation demand, so that making different passenger transportationmodes cooperate with each other, improving the efficiency of urban passengertransportation, optimizing the government resources allocation and achieving theoverall optimization of urban passenger transportation system. This paper takes theparticipators’ economic decision-making of urban passenger transportation systemas the research object, and discusses from the point of view of transportationbehavior, system science, management science and decision-making theory.Based on the survey and summary some cities passenger transportation systemdevelopment in China, this paper presented the bus, taxi and urban rapid transitdevelopment statistics, and found the distribution law in the urban passengertransportation companies’ development scale. Through the discussion ofparticipators of urban passenger transportation system-manager, operator andtraveler, this paper established the complex network model of urban passengertransportation participators, and analyzed the relationship among differentparticipators. Combination with the economic decision-making theory, this paperdescribed the types of participators’ economic decision-making, the process ofparticipators’ economic decision-making, as well as the effect of economic policyon different participators.Through the analysis of public, participation, and matrix between public andparticipation, this paper combined Thomas’s effective decision making model withurban passenger transportation manager’s economic decision-making, put forwardthe manager’s economic decision-making model based on public participation, anddesigned the public participation procedure and methods. Then took the taxi fuelsurcharge increasing after oil price rise as an example, discussed how to take intoaccount the public view and public participation in the process of urban passenger transportation manager’s economic decision-making.Based on Game Theory to describe the Nash Equilibrium among urbanpassenger transportation operators, a bi-level programming model was proposed tomodel urban passenger transportation operators’ economic decision-making,operators’ profit and social cost have been discussed, including the travel time cost,air pollution cost and energy consumption cost. The upper-level model describedthe management authority’ regulation on the fares of each mode; the lower-levelmodel described the three operators’ aiming to maximize the profit by determiningthe service frequency. Divided the urban passenger transportation market into twocategories, one includes bus, rapid transit, taxi and private car mode; anotherincludes bus, taxi and private car mode. Then presented the solution algorithm ofthe bi-level optimization model, a numerical example illustrated the introduction ofrapid transit service in the urban passenger transportation market.Aiming to analyze traveler’s mode choice decision under bounded rational,this paper introduced Cumulative Prospect Theory in traveler’s mode choicedecision-making. First, traveler’s subjective perception cost of with different timevalue on the four different transport modes was analyzed, including private car, bus,taxi and subway, and traveler’s mode choice behavior was discussed under thegeneralized travel cost, the probability distribution of travel time changing andtravel time constraints, respectively. Comparing the difference between cumulativeprospect theory and expected utility theory, the numerical example indicated thatcumulative prospect theory is more dependent on the weighting function changes;and under the travel time probability changes and time constraints, the car ownerstend to choose private cars. Cumulative prospect theory is more suitable to analyzetraveler’s mode choice behavior under the uncertain environments.Finally, taking congestion pricing policy as the background, based on thesummary of theoretical and practical development of congestion pricing, this paperanalyzed manager’s economic decision, operator’s economic profit, as well astraveler’s behavior changing. With the combination of traveler stated preferencesurvey data, validated the effectiveness of the presented and established the model.This paper presented some proposals on the establishment and implementation ofcongestion pricing policy in China.