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Study On Decision Making Theory And Support System For Operation Period Of Mega And Complex Projects Based On Immune Theory

Posted on:2014-03-24Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:M FanFull Text:PDF
GTID:1262330428975796Subject:Project management
Abstract/Summary:
Decision-making is one of the most important and frequent active in large and complex projects with its Start-up phase, construction phase, and the project operational phase. Decision-making’s key technologys include the information gathering, modeling, and analysis. Decision-maker selected one from the multiple choice with considerable justification, the process is usually on the generalized problem-solving process, complex systems (CS) decision is a common problem of professional policy makers. Despite the various policy settings include typical incomplete and unclear information, but experts want to make good decisions, which is why the need for an interdisciplinary approach to research. With many intertwined technical, social complexity, complex systems is faced many difficulties in the decision-making process, such as access to information, decision-making model developed, result assessment, and so on.Mega project question may be as a complex system in real life, project itself and the management process has some specific characteristics, through analysis large-scale complex engineering project technical complexity, and the social stakeholder complexity, we knew, the important engineering project usually receives the serious restriction in the operation management, because of result of resources limited, the management system ossification as well as many complex rules. We need to seek one kind of new management pattern to utilize the actual project. Science decision-making of important engineering, management innovation and sustainable development immediately become a main subject in this field. We need face the actual problem of the important project management implementation, develop the important project epistemology and the management methodology, and the important project management pattern, important project subject research and so on organization innovation and fine profit construction, important project internationalization strategy, important project total life cycle and sustainable development.Artificial immune system (AIS) is an adaptive system, inspired by the biological theory of Immunology, immune function, principles and models for reference, should be used to solve practical problems of the system. Artificial immune algorithm, solving issues as antigens, antibodies was correspond to the solutions of problem, improved artificial immune algorithm similar to GA, some artificial immune algorithm is also starting from the randomly generated initial solution group, executing operation through copy, crossover and mutation, The new population surpasses the father generation, and is gradually approach the optimal solution.This research main contribution is as follows:(1) Utilized the biology immunity principle in the project complex project decision-making process, analyzed the reason of decision information existence dispute in its gather progressing, in metaphor the antibody update progress of immunity principle, extract the information which decision-makers concerned with, from the large amount of information by the immune system to recognize the ability of self-nonself, to distinguish between the different interests of different users or different periods, and decision-makers, play the role of information filtering, draw against harmful antigens in the immune process algorithm to calculate the estimated energy error of artificial immune system, excluded the solution which withing greater risk in similar solutions of operation and maintenance. Improved the situation of difficult decision-making of large-scale complex engineering project. the target decision of operation of mega projects drew on immune algorithm of biological immunity principle, problem solving of optimized for multi-objective decision making demonstrated the advantages of immune algorithm.(2) Closely integrated multi-objective decision-making methods and immune principle, innovatively used the immune theory algorithm to solve the optimization problem of limited resources involved in mega projects operational decisions, so that the total minimum cost of resources within the pre-specified deadline task duration, the heuristic procedures of project scheduling problem under tight resource constrained have been developed with calculation methods and philosophy(to see Chapter6section2and3).(3) First learn from active defense capabilities of biological immune system, used the Danger Theory to solve the the emergency decision problem of large and complex projects in the state of emergency, send the danger signal according to the gain navigation data by the immunity algorithm dangerous pattern, changed the passive mode of emergency decision, given the calculation procedure of avoid the ship collision with bridge, provided proactive hedging decision support for operational managers, give solution of the risk of preventing ship collision with bridges, change the awkward position of passive acceptance of loss for the manager of large bridges.(4) Developed an intelligent decision support system based on multi-theory, multi-model, multi-objective for operation period of large and complex projects, and for the first time applied to actual large-scale cross-sea bridge’s management of operation and maintenance decision-making, according to the conservation and management needs to establish professional database and solve the diversity problem of data sources to study the establishment of a decision-making model of bridge maintenance and management of multi-combination, broke through the limitations of a single model of decision-making, provided technical support for the decision-makers, changes the mode of operation and management, and enhance management efficiency, and better promote the application of the operational management of other large bridges, the experts identified the research filled the domestic blank, the results reached the international advanced level.Finally, the researchers put forward suggestions and ideas on the improvement of immune principle, to provide a reference for others in practical applications.
Keywords/Search Tags:Immune principle, Mega Projects, Complex, Multi-ObjectiveDecision-Making, Intelligent Assistant
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