Global Peak Oil Forecast And Chinese Strategies Research

The paper redefined the Peak Oil based on literatures research that Peak oilwhich is not oil exhaustion means economical recoverable oil production growthdrops to zero (or close to0). Global oil production declined after reaching a peakoutput, and higher oil prices will become the norm. As global traditional GiantOilfields gradually are stepping into peak plateau period, other factors such as risingoil upstream costs caused by recovery difficulties, reserves and production growthrate gradually declined, the ratio between spending and reserve growth, etc. prove thatglobal peak oil is gradually approaching.The differences of Ultimately Recovery Resources value (URR) is one of themost important causes of various prediction. The dissertation estimated global URRvalue is about4700Gb, which is a dynamic value..The U.S. Geological Survey2000and2012reserve growth prediction model results were compared and confirmedreserves of different periods of growth model USGS reserves. Compared theprediction results based on The U.S. Geological Survey2000and2012reservegrowth prediction model proved that the new model of individual aggregates growthanalysis model confirmed the potential reserve growth value is about worldwide is723Gb despite the exaggerated flaws, but still the most authoritative. Determine theUndiscovered Oil Resources to be found in the USGS prediction methodologyconfirmed that value of the world (exclude the U.S) around732Gb, decreased by12.9%compared with the2000results.Applied Single-Cycle Hubbert, Multi-Cycle Hubbert, Generalized Weng modelto predict oil production based on URR value estimated, and conducted a comparativestudy research proved that multi-cycle Hubbert model is in line with historical oilproduction data fluctuations, but also to a certain extent overcome exaggerated futurepeak production. Peak time will happen in2037and peak production around42Gbbased on Multi-Cycle model. The dissertation predicted the balance of global oilsupply and demand and believed that the global oil supply basically meet the demandfor oil to2035case projections (1.274Gb) based on this model. As peak oilapproaching, the difference between supply and demand will gradually shrink from2025, while the difference of Chinese oil production and demand is still expanding to2.885Gb，and chinese petroleum dependence degree will be60.5%.Based on peak oil forecast, the paper evaluated the impact mechanism of peak oil for Chinese economic development. Peak oil can lead to the supply of economicalresources decline, and the marginal revenue of oil production gradually close to0, thatmeans oil supply available in low cost gradually is reducing. China’s domestic oilproduction, consumption and GDP growth lack coordination mechanism based onempirical study.The EROI of China will be lower than10:1. Lower EROI andincreasing higher oil costs and other factors all make higher oil price will be the norm,while oil price grow1%, the GDP of China will be influenced by-0.11%on the basisof empirical study.The last section provided some solutions. Do not expand the traditional giantoilfields production capacity, limiting the growth of domestic production is theprimary task to deal with the Peak Oil. The increase of the supply of offshore oil is theimportant guarantee to Chinese oil resources security. As to energy transition, promotethe construction of pit coal plants is a realistic choice. In terms of petroleum finance,the new concept of “a center, four sub-centers” can gradually change the currentpassive situation of China.