| The last four assessment reports published by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pointed out that human health would be affected by climate change directly or indirectly. On the one hand, more and more extremes climate events and meteorological disasters will make the spread of some diseases more prevalent. On the other hand, variation of some meteorological factors also result in some weather-sensitive diseases or recurrent exacerbations, further more increase the morbidity and mortality, expanded disease’s geographical range. As a result, human survival and development will be under threat. Therefore, in order to adapt to the global climate change and reduce its negative effects on human health and emergency disease, we must do some research on the effect among the weather, climate change and its influence on related people’s health. Mainland China is one of the most sensitive areas responding to global climate change.In order to avoid disadvantages of climate change, it’s important to assess regional climate condition based on human health.Previous studies shows that meteorological factors, including temperature, humidity and wind speed, etc, can affect human health, and conform to synergy effect with each other. It is limitations to assess the impact of climate change on health by a single meteorological factor. Moreover, the differences of living for a long time under the different climate types is also rarely considered. Therefore, it is necessary to build a reasonable and scientific method to assessment the relationship between climate changes and human health by using multiple meteorological elements.In view of this, multi-element synergy human comfort index based mainly on temperature has been built, and the temporal and spatial distribution of human comfort index and human comfortable degree have been calculated and analyzed by using daily surface observational data over mainland China in recent52years. Then, the extreme heat and cold temporal evolution of the two uncomfortable weather features which have large harm to human health was emphatically analyzed. In addition, abnormal atmospheric circulation during two typical uncomfortable events (Heat wave in2013and Severe Snow and Freezing-Rain in2008) had been explored. Finally, the relationship between weather conditions and circulatory system deaths on typical urban have been analyzed by using the meteorological data and daily circulatory system mortality data. The weather types which can evoke circulatory disease mortality in patients in typical urban have been discerned in different seasons. The main results are as follows:1. A new comfort index algorithm what combines with some factors is used to evaluate the impact of climate changes on human health. Measure the most comfortable temperature of each month in every station. Adjust human feelings difference in each station, in which has different climatic ground. Wind reflects the amplification effect in hot and humid conditions, and also role in low humidity conditions on human feelings. Comfort index can be a technical method applied to evaluate healthy climate. In this paper, focused research on of the human health benefits of comfort degrees (degree-warm, degree-comfortable, degree-cool), and extremely uncomfortable (heat and sever cold degree), which easy to induce the relevant weather-sensitive disease.2. Results of assessment on healthy climate show that the comfortable days have obvious regional and seasonal differences. Comfortable days most10stations appear in southwest China, and all of them located near the tropic of cancer (23.5(?)), with the days of259.9d/a, accounted for more than71%of the total annual number of days. There are more comfortable days of Southwest China in spring. In summer, more comfortable days occur in north of35(?) and southwest China. But in fall, south of35(?) region are more comfort for life. Southern China has most comfortable days in winter. Comfortable days have obvious changes during recent decades affect by global climate changes. Comfortable range extended from the southeast coast of the continent, nearly10longitude (latitude), and comfortable extension of the scope of the southwest to the northeast region in spring. In summer, to105(?) is bounded, west of the high-altitude Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is a significant increasing trend; east of the region, the number of comfortable days develop to south region, ranging nearly seven latitudes. In fall, days develop to the high latitudes in south of25(?). Comfortable zone to the northeast and northwest expansion in southwest region, changes in nearly two latitudes. In winter, comfort zone is clearly presented the development of the north in south of25(?), and it changes nearly two progressive north latitude from the1960s to the early21st century.3. The temporal distribution of comfortable days on interannual scales, number of annual comfortable days showed an upward trend in all of the regions except South China, with the most obvious change in the Tibetan Plateau (4.15d/10a). In spring, more comfortable days occur in center, southern, southwest and eastern China, and all of the regions show an increasing trend except southern China. In summer, comfortable days show a trend of decrease, except Qinghai-Tibet plateau (with rate2.27d/10a). The number of comfortable days in southern and eastern China have trend of decrease in fall, but the rest of region have a trend of increase, especially in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (1.38d/10a). In winter, the comfortable days appear rising trend in eastern, central, southern, southwest China, especially in southern China, with rate of1.67d/10a. People feel comfortable in southern from November to March; Eastern, central and southern regions are more comfortable in April; All of region over mainland China is comfortable region in May, except for the south and the Tibetan Plateau; In June, people feel more comfortable in northeast and southwest regions; Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is more comfortable in July; In August, people feel more comfortable in south west China; Northern region (except Tibet Plateau) and Southwest regions are more comfortable in September; The eastern and southwest China is more comfortable region in October.4. Analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution of extreme uncomfortable days (heat and sever cold) which threat to human health. Main results are as follow: Heat days in all regions, except Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, are increased, and the phenomenon most obvious in eastern, center and southern China. Furthermore, heat days in southern China not as strength as in eastern and central China, which has large harm to human health. In general, number of annual heat days increase evidently in southern than northern China. Sever cold days has obvious changes compared with changes of heat days, what affected by the background of global warming, especially in northeast China, with downward trend rate of-3.89d/10a. On the whole, sever cold days appear in the middle and high latitude region, with some stations’ sever cold degree days are occur from November to March. 5. A strong signal of global climate anomalies, that is increase in extreme weather events, it is undoubtedly a serious threat to human health related. Analysis of atmospheric circulation of an hot uncomfortable weather (heat wave weather occur in2013), West Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) is the mainly system of this process. Vice subtropical high index indicates that area of WPSH northerly than average state, intensity increased, ridge line northward obvious inclining to the west. WPSH sustained control in jianghuai valley cause heat wave, thermal uncomfortable days, what threat to people health in each summer. Analyze the atmospheric circulation of an uncomfortable cold weather in2008, There is a large cross between Lake Baikal and Siberia at the middle troposphere, and a continued of cold advection import into China. In addition, High humidity shows in southern China, because there are two main paths to continue the water vapor transport to the south in the lower troposphere, one is from the Bay of Bengal, and other one is from the South China Sea. The collocation of low temperature and humidity effect added to the local residents to the cold feeling, adverse to their health, even lead to death. As a example, circulatory mortality peak has a continuous day is in mid-January to mid-February,2008.6. Taking Nanjing as an example, Change of weather conditions and climate comfort are all contact with increased disease recurrence directly. Study on circulatory system diseases deaths and meteorological elements in Nanjing. It can be found that cold effect is one of the main causes of circulatory system diseases death. On the one hand, cold uncomfortable domains (or under extreme cold conditions) circulatory disease deaths are more concentrated. Maximum peak of mortality of circulatory diseases appear in the middle of winter, while in the summer season, the peak occurrences of mortality. On the other hand, apparent temperature changes suddenly also cause circulatory system diseases patients death. Different forms of combination with meteorological factors in different seasons, which has different ways to impact on human health. In summer, higher temperature and higher humidity will aggravate the patients with circulatory diseases. In fall and winter, low temperature is mainly reason. In addition, wind speed maximum in fall and precipitation in winter could not be ignored.In conclusion, it’s an effective attempt on evaluation of health effect of climate changes by using multi-element synergy human comfort index and the results solved a key problem. The research promote the development of this aspect and make contributions on climatic, avoiding disadvantages and staying health for the public. |
PDF Full Text Request