Research On China’s Grain Industrial Security

ABSTRACT:Currently international and domestic environment are increasingly complex, our grain security is facing a huge challenge. Firstly, the new grain security concept is the basis of analysis of present and future of China’s grain security. The grain security system has structural characteristics, so system analysis should be used to analyze the issue of grain security in China. Secondly,the China’s grain industry is facing natural and market risks. Thirdly, grain security are divided into grain production security,grain consumer security and grain import and export security, analyze the influencing factors that affect various aspects of security, identify the important factors and indicators of the impact of China’s grain security. Then.the forecast of China’s grain supply and demand situation comes to the conclusion:food production situation in China is relatively stable, the key point is the grain varieties and regional restructuring, it can be swapped by the international market. Based on the systems analysis, risk analysis and factor analysis,the important indicators of measuring China’s grain security can be determined. The grain security evaluation model can be established after three-part framework including the system state (State), the system pressure (Pressure) and system response (Response) system, using entropy Method to determine the weight. It comes to a conclusion that the trend of security fluctuating and in the2001-2010are closely related to government’s policy and protection measures.Finally, improving grain production capacity and improving grain market system can be two significant ways to ensure our grain security.