The Change Trajectory And Regional Characteristics Of Carbon Emissions In China In The Background Of Climate Warming

Global warming has turned to be an indisputable topic, and especially after the eighties of last century global temperatures increase significantly. One of the significant factors is that the increasing greenhouse effect caused by humans continues to impact greenhouse gas emissions especially those of carbon dioxide. Thus, reducing carbon dioxide emissions becomes one of the major tasks to ease the climate changes. China, as one of the countries that have the largest impacts on carbon emissions, has been the academic focus for its impact on carbon emissions.The paper begins with testing the abnormality of the continuous warm winters by using the scan statistic method. The result shows that the recent continuous warm winters in China are remarkably abnormal and the average winter temperature is higher than normal. Then the paper, from the functions of time and space, sets carbon emissions which cause global warming as the object and analyzes the trajectory changes and regional characteristics of carbon emissions in China by using dynamic smooth coefficient regression model and Sampson-Guttorp spatial statistics model. The analysis indicates that carbon emissions go through three stages which are rapid increase, steadiness and rapid increase. It also reveals that the impact of GDP on carbon emissions over the time includes six stages of slow increase, rapid increase, rapid decrease, rapid increase, slow decrease and rapid increase. Overall, the extent of carbon emissions in China is geographically uneven with high in the east and the north and low in the south and the west, and high in part of the central-north and low in the northwest. Finally, the paper proposes a technical suggestion to reduce emissions in China and its regions based on empirical and practical data. The paper consists of seven chapters.Chapter1is an introduction. It describes the background and purpose, the content and the framework, the methods and the key issues, and innovative point of view of the study. Chapter2is a review. It summarizes three areas of domestic and global research on the phenomenon of warm winters, the relation between carbon emissions and economic growth, and regional characteristics of carbon emissions, thus providing a solid theoretical framework of this paper. Chapter3illustrates the phenomenon of climate warming and its impacts. The first half of the chapter examines the phenomenon of continuous warm winters by using the scan statistic method. And the second half briefly states the reason and impact of climate warming. Clearly, how to effectively reduce carbon emissions and other releases has become a critical subject to be resolved. Chapter4calculates the extent of carbon emissions. The chapter introduces the classic estimation methods developed by global authorities, which provide theoretical supports for the following empirical analysis. Chapter5and6are empirical studies. Chapter5analyzes the trajectory changes of carbon emissions with time changes. The study begins with the trajectory changes over the timeline, and then applies the Dynamic Smooth Coefficient Regression model with the factors of economic growth integrated to discover the connection between carbon emissions and the economic growth in China as well as the trend and the cause. Chapter6analyzes the regional characteristics of carbon emissions in China by using the Sampson-Guttorp spatial statistical methods. It estimates SG correlations of carbon emissions among the provinces in China, which defines the distances to conduct cluster analysis and to determine the spatial distribution characteristics of China’s carbon emissions. The last chapter is the conclusion and the suggestion on implementation. The chapter summarizes the empirical analysis and the practical applications and proposes the suggestion on the policy to reduce carbon emissions in various regions in China. Finally, the paper puts forward the issues to be further studied.