A Study On Measurement And Early-warning Of Operational Risk In Chinese Commercial Banks

First this paper gives an integrated overview of the literatures on commercial banks’operational risk done at home and abroad from three aspects such as research on management framework of operational risk, research on measurement of operational risk and research on early-warning of operational risk. New definition and classification of commercial banks’operational risk are given by the author based on some research done on the essential theory. Secondly, it studies the management framework of commercial banks’operational risk, and a new management framework on operational risk is proposed which are composed of five subsystems and eighteen functional modules. The next, research on measurement of commercial banks’ operational risk is done. An income model of panel data based on financial index and other economic indicators is established, and a positive analysis is made based on that. Last, it does some research on early-warning of commercial banks’operational risk. An early-warning Bayesian model is established based on which exogenous risk and endogenous risk are key risk indicators and seven categories of operational loss events are key risk drives, and a positive analysis is also done based on that model.