| As with Greek debt crisis for the European debt crisis triggered the increasingly fierce, the national debt issuance and administration once again be the economics of hot debate. In fact, national debt in the economic development of a country has played an important role. Review the1980s happened in South America countries the debt crisis and the90s happened, in Russia and the Asian financial crisis, with the national debt crisis is concerned. And the United States in2011the outbreak of the debt ceiling crisis, more show the great economic energy of the national debt. Otherwise, it will lead to fiscal and monetary risk, even economic collapse, all this is worth reference. In this paper the current government debt global existing in the economic development of hot topic, comprehensively and systematically study the national debt on macro economic growth and the influence degree of correlation, national debt to the effect of inflation degree and quantitative relationship, national debt and financial income the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation relationship, and to make an empirical analysis, and then consult international general evaluation national debt risk index make risk research of our country, the risk of Treasury bonds are comprehensive judgments, profound understanding the essence of national debt for and avoid the risk of national debt, set up a rational policy national debt has important theoretic value and practical significance.This paper expounds the background and significance of the subject, and sums up the macroeconomic effect of the Treasury and the related literature at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the main conclusion and view. And then the relevant national debt and macro economic theory is discussed, analyzed the common international measure of the size of the national debt relative index system, application of these index system to evaluate the scale of the national debt of our country, this paper analyzes the national debt to the role of the economic construction of our country, for the following empirical test to lay the foundation.Along with the issuance of Treasury bonds and Treasury bonds on macro economic impact on the research and develop, in theory formed the various factions and view, empirical test out different conclusions, but still failed to reach a unified know to explain and clear national debt on macro economy and the effect of the correlation between the two. Based on the theory of diversification, choose any one theory form or view of empirical test is likely to form the first impression of conclusion. Therefore, this article takes the attitude to study the unknown prior to the influence of national debt macroeconomic empirical analysis and correlation.This paper from the different Angle or in different measures of Treasury bonds and Treasury select balance circulation, CPI, PPI, fiscal revenue and such variables as soon as possible, to ensure that the research object has a precise measure. And then the research object related variables analysis each other, first from intuitive to graphics, using H-P filtering method to remove trend, calculate the percentage deviation from the variable trend, compared with the national debt scale instead of variable and macroeconomic effects between variables instead of deviation from the trend chart, from graphics get the quantitative relationship for the empirical analysis to be ready. Use Granger causality test, analysis the causality between variables, to examine the interaction between variables of the logical sequence, to identify the relationship among variables.Determine the interaction effects between variables of the logical sequence, further cointegration analysis, and in vector auto-regressive (VAR) framework through the impulse response function study the interaction between variable path, the final through the establishment of the error correction model (ECM) analysis between variables of the long-term equilibrium relation and short-term fluctuation characteristics, to quantify the variables influence degree between the size.In the process of research from the intuitive graphics start, and then the establishment of measurement model, from short-term changes to the long-term equilibrium, surface to the comprehensive investigation on macroeconomic impact of the national debt, use empirical test were studied with the effect on economic growth, Treasury bonds and the effect of inflation and national debt and financial income effect may exist between the relationship between each other in order to ensure that the empirical analysis of the comprehensive and reliability.In view of the European debt crisis, this paper analyzes the national debt on macro and the impact of the economic, uses the international general warning index to the national debt of our country scale for the risk and warning that the Chinese government scale is safe conclusion.This paper concluded that the main conclusion is: First, the Chinese government scale fluctuations than the volatility of the macro economic variables, more violent, and with the macro economy exists between the relationship is significant, national debt is issued to promote the gross domestic product growth, at the same time may be forced out private investment, and the shock to the CPI and PPI. In addition, the national debt as part of the fiscal revenue, to make up for budget deficit played an important role.Second, in1994the financial budget system change before, our national debt is issued quantity is less, but also because of the national debt extrusion effect, make the national debt to the stimulating effect of the economic problems.1994years later, the circulation of national debt greatly increased in1994, and to promote the economy before, compared to1994years after the promoting function of national debt of economic improvement, but the purpose of the national debt is issued for fiscal deficit, still cannot effectively promote economic growth.Third, the national debt scale and economic growth both between although there is a long-term equilibrium relationship, but national debt balance with national debt to GDP in the circulation of influence most equations are negative, that national debt balance with national debt of the circulation of the GDP growth will lead to decline, which reflects the national debt to economic extrusion; National debt and price index exist between strong relations. Increase the national debt is issued, on the one hand, will squeeze out private investment and investment caused prices to rise, and the national debt is issued will stimulate the economy will also lead to rising prices; On the other hand, national debt is issued occupied by monetary fund money supply reduced, cause the price will go down. And our country national debt and CPI, PPI existing relationships between the fracture characteristics, that is, by the year1994, the circulation of national debt is less, with little impact on macroeconomic, more will not impact on prices; But after1994, national debt issued a rapid rise, which led to rising prices, both has not only short-term relationship, but also formed a long-term equilibrium. From a financial income and China’s national debt long relationship with short wave equation to see, China’s national debt scale and financial income effect is a significant relationship between. Whether in the1994budget before the change, or after1994, China’s financial income and national debt circulation and other variables are there is a long-term relationship, and revenue bonds with decreased circulation. This fully shows the extrusion of the national debt, national debt issuance of extrusion private investment, output decline, so that in the financial revenues of the major proportion of the falling tax revenues, resulting in the financial revenue decline.Fourth, starting from1990to2003the national debt of our country comprehensive risk overall witnessed a gradual rise,2003years to reach the top, but has not more than alert level; From2004years later, the comprehensive national debt risk was decreased obviously in2009, and there’s been a dramatic rally, but from the general trend, our country national debt integrated risk is still in the controllable scope, comprehensive risk degree and the national debt is not very high.This paper the innovation points embodied in the following three aspects:First, we research and analysis of our national debt scale and macroeconomic volatility characteristics and related. From the macroscopic economy three different points of view, that is, the gross domestic product, inflation and financial income, through the H-P filtering method, Granger causality test, cointegration test and Johansen inspected the Chinese government scale and macroeconomic volatility characteristics and related. The conclusion is:the Chinese government scale is macroeconomic fluctuations fluctuation more violent, and with the macro economy exists between the relationship is significant, national debt balance on the domestic economy has certain stimulation; National debt and price index Granger causality between the strong relations; National debt to make up for budget deficit played an important role.In the second place, from long-term and short-term Angle and stage in our country to study the national debt of the macro economic variables, the mutual influence. Chow inspection method using calculated national debt and macro economic variables in the model of measurement of1994there are basic structural breakpoints, so all the samples to block consideration, to evade breakpoint to estimate the influence of the results. The vector regression model and the impulse response function of national debt scale and economic growth, inflation rate, financial income and related variables respectively established VAR model, and further use error correction model from the national debt and macro economic variables, the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation relationship from the point of view of the verification, the conclusion is:national debt balance to the impact of the gross domestic product to promote long-term function, but the national debt balance with national debt to GDP in the circulation of influence most equations are negative, that national debt balance with national debt of the circulation of growth will lead to the decline of GDP. Chinese government and price index exist between strong relations, bond issuance will stimulate the economy will also lead to rising prices, China’s national debt and CPI, PPI existing relationships between fracture characteristics, in the years before1994, national debt is issued less, on price little impact, but after1994, national debt issued a rapid rise, which led to rising prices. Fiscal income and national debt circulation and other variables are there exists a long-term relationship, and revenue bonds with decreased circulation, fully explain extrusion of the national debt.Third, this paper based on early warning theory, to construct our country’s national debt risk early warning system. In this paper, the national debt rate, national debt service ratio, national debt dependency, and the national deficit ratio should be debt rate, national debt service ratio and residents should debt rate in the seven and national debt risk related index, With reference to the international standard and accepted the cordon of the Chinese government in our country actual situation to the specific national debt integrated risk and the various national debt risk early warning indicators divided alarming, further according to the same proportion of each method are warning of the risks of the Treasury index is converted to score index values and the factor analysis to the warning index weight and thus get our country comprehensive risk value of the national debt, and then judge with our country of the national debt over the early warning degrees.This paper studies the purpose is based on China data through empirical analysis concluded that national debt on macroeconomic factors, establish national debt of the size of the warning analysis system, and based on this, through the national debt and each macro economic variables, find out and set up the relationship between the optimal scale model of Treasury bonds are the system to the optimal circulation data, so as to provide some reference to the management department opinion, avoid the possibility of debt risk in our country, but because the detailed data problems, but the problem of the study. In the data after detailed textual research, and will be of this problem for further study. |
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