Research On The Vulnerability’s Synthetic Evaluation And Application Of The Regional And Social Economy System

With the rapid growth of global population and the development of socio-economy,the vulnerability of living environment and socio-economic system also becomesprominent. It has seriously affected the ecology and the sustainable development of thesocio-economic system.The vulnerability is becoming a hot issue and one of thescientific frontiers on global environmental change and how to achieve sustainabledevelopment. With the socio-economic development, the concept of vulnerability is notonly applied in the field of natural disasters, ecological environment, groundwater, butalso used in other areas.First, the background and purpose and significance of the regional socio-economicvulnerability are systematically given. Researches of vulnerability both domestic andabroad are summarized and the different views and researching methods on vulnerabilityare analyzed. A comprehensive and systematic comment of vulnerability research statusis made.Secondly, the concept of vulnerability of the regional socio-economic system andthe principles of synthetic evaluation indicator system of the regional socio-economicvulnerability is given. On the basis of the principles, a synthetic evaluating system of theregional social and economic is established. The system includes two level-I indicatorswhich refer to the main causing indicators and the outcome performance indicators. Themain causing indicators include the resource ecological causing index, the populationcausing index and the environmental pollution causing index. The outcome performanceindex includes the economic outcome index, social outcome index and natural disasteroutcome index. There are a number of level-III indicators respectively in each type ofLevel-II indicators. In accordance with the relevant standards, the standard index’s valuesfor all the Level–III indicators are calculated.Thirdly, according to the characteristics of the different levels of indicators, differentapproaches are adopted to determine the weights. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)has been used in determining the weights of the Level-II indicators and the consistency test has been made. Considering that the Level-II indicators are more，and all the originalinformation is from the objective environment directly, the entropy method is adopted indetermining the weights for the Level-II indicators. It can effectively reduce thesubjectivity of the research caused by human factors by using these methods.Fourthly, with the classified gray cluster according to the need of evaluationrequirement, the improved Gray cluster analysis method and the membership function offuzzy mathematics, a synthetic evaluation model was conducted on the regionalsocio-economic vulnerability system. It may make the regional socio-economicvulnerability system evaluation objective and correct.Fifthly, by using the Canonical Correlation Analysis，the relationships between theindicators of main causing indicators and outcome performance of regionalsocio-economic system vulnerability in Hebei Province are analyzed. The effectingdegrees of level-II indicators in different systems are quantitatively given from differentperspectivies. The improved BP neural network is adopted quantitative to measure theinfluence of the main causing indicators and the sensitivity of outcome performanceindicators so as to provide a new method to research the relationships between the twoLevel-I indicators of the regional socio-economic system.Sixthly, according to the form of the sequence scatter plot morphology, the linerregression equations, the curve regression equations and the neural network method hasbeen adopted respectively to forecast the future value of the vulnerability of eachLevel-III indicators of Hebei regional socio-economic comprehensive evaluation system.Based on the forecasting results, the vulnerability of the socio-economic system of HebeiProvince is comprehensive evaluated.Lastly, according to the evaluated results and the forecasting data of economicsystem vulnerability in Hebei Province, some existing problems are pointed out from theperspectivies of resource ecology, population, environment pollution, economy, society，and disaster prevention. The relevant suggestions and the theoretical supports have beengiven for solving the problems and to reduce the socio-economic system vulnerability inHebei Province.