The Comprehensive Assessment Of The Power Loss And The Economic Impact Of The Power Outages Under The Flooding

With the change of the global climate and the accelerated development of urbanization, the frequency, strength and loss of the flooding exhibit a trend of increasing. Frequent floods have become an important factor which restricts the sustainable development of China’s society and economics, due to the complicated natural conditions in China. With the rapid incensement of the correlation between various industries, the vulnerability of the economic system becomes more intensive. The electric supply for industrial, commercial, residential and other users will be cut off when the electricity sector, an important basic industry, subjects to flooding attacks. As a result, the effects of blackouts will spread to all industrial sectors, and even influence the stable operation of the entire social and economic system. Therefore, it is important to accurately reasonably, and comprehensively evaluate the power losses and the associated economic losses which caused by floods, providing an important basis for government regulators to reasonably arrange the human, material and financial resources in the post-disaster, and scientific decision-making and security relief measures in the emergency disaster. Therefore, the comprehensive assessment of the power loss and the economic impact of the power outages under the flooding have an important theoretical significance and practical value.The integrated assessment model of the power loss and the economic impact of the power outages which caused by flooding are described in this paper. First, the outage failure probability model of the transmission line caused by flooding is proposed to predict the probability of the failure transmission line outage, based on the amount of impact analysis of the power system and its’statistical feature selection method. Then, based on the uncertainty of the outage failure probability of the transmission line and the flow of the reservoir floods, the assessment model of the load shedding loss of the power system is proposed, which can assess the load cut and load-shedding losses accurately. Finally, according to the characteristics of different types of the electricity users, the direct economic losses of the outage for various industries users caused by load shedding are estimated. The indirect economic loss assessment model is put forward based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The majority of work and the innovations are as follows:1. The model of the floods that affect the power system is proposed by analysis of the impact of floods on the power system. The model parameters are estimated by using the least squares method. Aiming at the shortage of the least square method, the characteristic quantity from the weather, geography, power and other factors that lead to the failure of electrical equipment is selected to establish the model of the floods that effect the power equipment by using hypothesis testing, stepwise regression, Lasso. The fit of the model is tested by using Akaike’s information criteria.2. The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) model of the rainfall intensity is established by analysis of the random nature of rainfall intensity. The probability of transmission line outages failure and transformer failure are obtained to predict insulator flashover probability, according to the probability of rainfall intensity.3. Based on the inherent physical properties of the power system, the model of the line outage failure load shedding of the power system evaluation is proposed, which can assess the loss of load shedding under the system fault line outage. By further consideration of the uncertainty of the transmission line outage failure caused by the floods, the load shedding assessment model of the power system based on chance constrained is proposed, and the solution method of the model is researched.4. On the basic of analyzing the impact of floods on the hydroelectric power, the load shedding assessment model of the power system by considering the safety of the reservoirs of the power system is proposed, and the losses of load shedding is evaluated. By analysis of the random nature of the flood flow and by considering the multiple correlation of the flood flow storage reservoir, the joint probability of the numbers of distribution storage reservoirs of flood flow is calculated. By further consideration of the uncertainty of the flood flows caused by the floods, the load shedding assessment model of the power system based on chance constrained is proposed, and the solution method of the model is researched.5. For the problem that the faults of load shedding in power system caused by floods, the economic loss assessment model of the power outages is proposed. Based on the user’s electrical characteristics, the direct economic loss assessment models of the power outages for the construct industrial, commercial and residential customers are proposed. The indirect economic losses of the power outages which caused by the floods is estimated by using CGE, and the direct economic losses from the power industry and the power users use as an exogenous shock value.In conclusion, a complete set of the economic losses of the power outages assessment system is proposed in this paper, with the combination of predicting the probability of power system fault caused by the floods, the load shedding assessment model of the power system and the economic loss assessment model of the power outages, and by further study the formation of the economic losses of the power system and the comprehensive impact of the power outages. It can evaluate the power losses and the related economic losses caused by the floods effectively, and it also can provide relief measures for decision-making and the scientific development of protection for the emergency disaster.