Integrated Analysis And Optimization Of Operational Decision Alternatives In Manufacturing Enterprises Based On Dynamic Process

As the informationization in the enterprises becoming extended, the information technology has been used in many industries, researches in enterprise management and related areas have turned to the direction of how to process information deeply, and the objective of these researches is to improve management and decision making efficiency. Operational decision making in manufacturing enterprises is a complex activity and it is a dynamic process. The decision making relate to every operational management area and the decision implementation will affect the operational performance of the enterprise. So, it is meaningful to integrate several phases’operational decision alternatives together and analyze them.This paper firstly research and review a large number of literatures, these literatures include domestic and foreign originals, and they can be classified into 3 categories: dynamic processes, operational decision making in manufacturing enterprises; and decision alternatives evaluation and selection. There are only small amount of literatures related to comprehensive operational decision alternatives analyze, so this paper proposes the study direction.The main study content of this paper includes:Firstly, based on the substance and properties of manufacturing enterprise’s operational management, concept and scope of operational decision have been described, the main content of operational decision and processes have been analyzed, a concept of operational decision integration has been proposed. Then the operational decision alternatives’s concept and its attributes are put forward. Secondly, based on the properties of manufacturing enterprise operational decision process, the sub-decisions of operational decision are integrated together, and the System Dynamic is used to set up an operational decision making model. Based on this model, some decision making simulations can be done easily, and this model can also be used to analyze relationship between decision variables. Based on this model, different decision alternatives can be created quickly.Thirdly, this paper analyzes the attributes of operational decision alternatives of single phase. Based on literatures study and properties of manufacturing enterprise’s operational decisions, an evolution index of manufacturing enterprise’s operational decision alternatives has been generated. Because of relationship between different indexes, inconsistency between different indexes, fuzziness of some indexes and balance between values of indexes, a model based on fuzzy ANP and variable weight principle has been set up, this model can be used to evaluate operational decision alternatives.Fourthly, this paper study how to optimize operational decision alternatives in dynamic process, and the study include two aspects:one aspect to analyze index weight change, a sensitivity algorithm of ANP model has been designed, the algorithm can analyze change of index weight and index independence weight, and it can also study the effect on the decision results because of the changes; another aspect to discuss competitors, all competitors are regard as "one player" in the game, a model based on game theory which consist of two players has set up, and the alternatives has been described.In the last part of this paper, it focuses on multi-phases operational decision alternative’s evaluation and optimization in dynamic process. In this part, two problems have been solved:one is to evaluate multi-phases operational decision alternative; the model synthesizes time dimension and index dimension. Another is to optimize multi-phases operational decision alternative. Because of market environmental change and the cumulative effect of multi-phase operational decision alternative, so an improve model based on Markov decision plan has been set up. This model can be used to optimize multi-phases operational decision alternative.Study of this paper has four innovations: (1) Manufacturing enterprise operational decision process has been analyzed integrate, an integrated model based on System Dynamic has been set up. This model can be used to analyze relationship between decision variable, and it can also be used to make decision simulations.(2) Four evaluation methods and a combination evaluation model have been set up to deal with some problems in alternatives evaluation. Among the 4 methods, the first one is based on Fuzzy-ANP, and it use constant weight, and the second one is based on Fuzzy-ANP and variable weight. The third one and the forth on are based on game theory, difference between them is that the forth one has a parameter and the third one without.(3) A sensitivity algorithm of ANP model has been proposed. This model is used to analyze change of index’s weight in ANP model and help to observe the effect on decisions. It is useful to optimization of decision.(4) Multi-phases operational decision alternative’s optimization method has been proposed. This method improved traditional Markov decision plan model, uses a cumulative reward matrix. It can optimize multi-phases operational decision alternative.