| Balanced population theory is a new research field of population theories in recent years. Developing balanced population has become the purpose of macro demography and innovative area of practical policy-making. Studies on balanced population will facilitate the completeness of population theory, and especially, provide theoretical support to China population policy formulation which includes new options to population developing model in less-developed areas; at the same time, it will give new content being considered in future social development of Yunnan Province. The population transform of Yunnan Province is accordance with that of China:it enters into a new period and faces new mission and new challenge, and that requires a review of long-term strategies and sustainability of micro-support of current population development. As a matter of fact, future population policies of Yunnan Province need to be scientifically explained in the context of up-to-date innovative theory and system. While balanced population development theory provides more comprehensive understanding to value judgment, speculative logic and mechanism explanation of population behavior, breakthroughs certain essential defects of traditional population theory, and promotes the acknowledgement of population behavior to a higher level. It has obtained positive responses in both academics and practices.As a less-developed province, Yunnan has its unique features in the progress, level and phase during population developing, and the coordination among population developing, economic development, resource and environment. To obtain a scientific prediction of population change in Yunnan Province we need to make an objective assessment to internal relations, external connections, potential problems and trends in the context of balanced population theory. This research hence believes balanced population development is theoretically innovative and realistically targeted, and considers it as the appropriate model as well as the mission to solve population problems and to conduct developing strategies. The framework of this new theory and the explanation, analysis and critical thinking to its concepts will help to promote and complete China population theory and practice. Based on the understanding and summarize of balanced population theory, this research mainly focuses on the following aspects:1) Summarize important points of population theory research from the perspective of population developing history and main points of current balanced population research. This paper constructs a theoretical framework to analyze population balanced development in less-developed area. This framework integrates population and their living surrounding, resources owned, social system and economic level into a whole to make a systematic analysis, of which balanced population developing degree is determined by two parts:internal and external balance.2) Using classical population transformation theory for reference, this paper explains balanced population theory in terms of population size, population quality (includes healthy and educational quality) and population composition (includes natural and social composition). Data of researching and analyzing population internal balance degree comes from previous demographic census archive of Yunnan Province.3) Use balanced population framework to compare external connections of balanced population in Yunnan Province. We analyze the variation of correlations since year2000between population and economy, resource, environment and society respectively.4) Using related domestic and overseas’research findings for reference, we conduct an index evaluation system of balanced population, which covers population, economy, society, resource, environment and other totaling25items to be calculated. We use non-subjective way-entropy method-of giving weights to every index.5) Conduct evaluation model by using annual data from2000to2012. We incorporate economic development level and sustainable development degree into coordination model, and calculatedegree of population balanced development E, balance degree D and sustainable development degree SD in different economic-development areas. By comparing each of these data, we obtain the level of population balanced development in different areas.By doing both qualitative and quantitative research, we have reached following conclusions to less-developed Yunnan Province:1) As a less-developed province, the degree of population balanced development has always increased, and every index is in the process of "inharmonious-roughly harmonious-harmonious" and it keeps improving.2) We adopt case study to compare balanced population developing condition in less-developed area, medium-developed area and well-developed area under the same political environment, and we found out population balanced degree of China is not high in neither less-developed areasnor other well-developed areas. In other words, it has not reached the "harmonious" phase. Hence, we think there is a long way to go to build a population-balanced society even if the government incorporates political support.3) Degree of population balanced development is coefficient to economy level. Although level of economic-developing in different areas is not the same, the degree of balanced population development may be the same, yet degree of balanced populationdevelopment in less-developed areas may be even higher. This finding indicates we can always expect to construct population balanced society regardless the economic developing level of it. And in other words, population balanced development is a dynamics yet spiral increasing process.4) High degree of population balanced development only indicates that the population development is roughly accordance with its resources, environment and social economic level under same economic developing level. Although the degree of population balanced development in Yunnan has no big disparity with that in Guangdong Province, it is a low-level coordination. Yet actual development level includes per capita income, life expectancy, average education level and other population developing indicators, and it has a high disparity with that of well-developed area. |
