Identification, Assessment And Solution For Chinese Transboundary River Non-traditional Security Threats

According to IR theory, distrust among sovereign states actually put them in security dilemma. International conflicts particularly triggered by the distribution and utilization of transboundary river water resources. It is obviously embedded with distrust and now constitutes a hot non-traditional security issue. In an increasing tendency, China and neighboring countries are facing disputes and conflicts over transboundary rivers. For example, the water development and utilization of the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) repeatedly triggered as national concerns for India. It is quite important to make a study on security threats existing in China’s transboundary rivers from the perspective of non-traditional security theory. It has carried out the identification, assessment research and further makes response to the threats. Therefore, this study is purposely designed to solve three basic problems:first, to construct the analysis framework on transboundary rivers security threats, in order to identify and assess security threats related to transboundary water; second, to identify and assess China’s transboundary river security threats by applying the unified analysis framework for analysis of Sino-Indian transboundary water conflicts; and finally to make suggestions for countermeasures of those security threats with the improvement of China’s transboundary water security response ability.The scholarship of non-traditional security studies helped this study to design and developed the theoretical framework of’transboundary river security governance’. Its main objective is to make assessment of transboundary rivers security threats and conflict resolution. This theoretical framework is actually a combination of non-traditional security and social conflict theories which analyses the transboundary river security issues in three stages and eight steps. The first stage (step one to three) is to mainly apply a variety of analysis tools to analyze and determine the level of security threats that either these threats would fall in the category of security context or not. The second stage (step four to seven) is to carry out research on settlement path selection and conflict solving strategy. It clarifies the conflict situation and characteristics, real divergent interests and concerns of all parties, in order to seek out an integrated problem solving scheme. The third stage (step eight) is for post-conflict peace construction, which mainly builds up a longstanding stable and harmonious atmosphere for superior coexistence.To broadening the scope of conflict resolution on transboundary water issues this study has represented some cases like, Euphrates and Tigris river, Indus River and Nile but the main focused has been given to the Sino-Indian transboundary water security threats. This case study has been used as unified analysis framework with detailed assessment in three stages and eight steps. In this process, the scholarship of security has been applied with the vulnerability and state actor’s power matrix of non-traditional security studies, and PESTLEM threat analysis model to identify Sino-Indian transboundary river security threats. Security evaluation matrix is also applied to assess the threats with substantial suggestions Sino-Indian transboundary river conflicts. It predicts that China and India need to mold the principle of "mutual responsibility sovereignty" as core value to guide conflict resolution on transboundary water. The both states need to clarify the practical interests and concerns, jointly collaborate with each other on transboundary water through negotiation. Besides that both need to adjust traditional strategies for water resources allocation, ecological environment protection in accordance with the balance of the upper reach’s claim of "absolute sovereignty" and the down reach’s claim of "fair utilization. " Both states avoid the tragedy of the commons in transboundary water caused by unilateral action. It’s quite important to pay attention to the legal system and current negotiation path of settlement. By working together, China and India could settle the transboundary water disputes and improve the bilateral relationship and even make a good example for non-traditional security problem solution in Asia and the world as a whole.Finally, on the basis of a distinctive case study of transboundary rivers and Sino-India transboundary security threat identification, assessment and response, "shared security" is proposed as the new paradigm and value orientation on transboundary river conflict resolution. Generally, suitable transboundary water conflict solution and cooperation requires six aspects of cooperation, namely, success in reaching a sound legal framework, signing multilateral or bilateral agreement, setting up a joint governing body, reaching integrated water utilization goals, hydrology data exchange, active participation from governments and civil society and cost-benefit sharing mechanism. It is also important for China and India to learn principles of international water law, international conventions and transboundary river development practice to improve their legal system and management mechanism related to transboundary rivers. They need to understand the multiple demands, jointly optimal path of cooperation and long-lasting funding mechanism for joint development. Both states should strengthen official diplomacy and public diplomacy, actively encourage and support civil society organizations and NGOs as important communication channels to promote transboundary water cooperation and on basis this initiatives both promote the sub-regional economic cooperation and regional comprehensive strategic cooperation.