| Population aging is one of the major problems faced by the whole world in the 21st century. China has to face more severe challenges due to an early entrance into aging society among developing countries. Population aging affects every aspect of social and economic development, and consumption of the elderly population is one of them. Domestic study on consumption of the elderly population is at its starting stage, insufficient in quantity and weak in depth. In this study, we use CHARLS data to calculate consumption quantity and structure of Chinese elderly population through empirical analysis. Our results will help us to know more about the consumption of Chinese elderly population. It also makes up some deficiencies of existing researches to a certain extent.Our study mainly covers the following parts:firstly, the quantitative feature and structural feature of the consumption of Chinese elderly population; secondly, the influencing factors of the consumption of Chinese elderly population; thirdly, the developing trends of the consumption of Chinese elderly population; fourthly, the development of China’s elderly industry; fifthly, the institutional arrangement and other suggestions related to the consumption of Chinese elderly population.In terms of consumption quantity, there are differences among different age groups and different types of elderly people. In 2011, the per capita consumption of Chinese population over 60 years old was around 11.8 thousand Yuan, and the per capita income was 6.6 thousand Yuan. It demonstrates a deficiency situation of the elderly in terms of current financial balance. The differences among different age groups could be seen from the shape of per capita consumption curve by age groups. For both the younger elderly (60-74) and mid-age elderly (75-89), per capita consumption curve by age groups is stable, without large fluctuations. However, when it reaches to senior age group (90 above), per capita consumption rises significantly. Different types of elderly people have very different per capita consumption level. We divide the elderly into ten types as high income (above average income of the elderly), low income (below average income of the elderly), single household (elderly living alone), double household (elderly not living alone), urban, rural, male, female, high education level (complete compulsory education), low education level (do not complete compulsory education). Elderly people who are vulnerable in terms of financial situation or living capability tend to have significant increase when they enter senior age group. These vulnerable elderly are low income, single household, rural, female and low education level. While the per capita consumption curves by age group of the rest five types of elderly population are stable. Elderly people with better financial situation and better living capability are more capable to smooth his/her consumption during their old ages.New characteristics have shown in terms of consumption structure of Chinese elderly population. Food and energy consumption take up more than half of per capita consumption. And Food consumption is the top among all consumption categories, however, food consumption is decreasing. Transportation, communication, entertainment, tourism, health care, cosmetology consumptions are increasing. Moreover, compared to younger and mid-age elderly population, senior elderly population consumes more on energy and housemaid. The age boundaries are fading-out. For consumption categories that were not used to be consumed by elderly population, such as dinning out, clothing, tourism, cosmetology, are now being consumed by Chinese elderly population, and with increasing percentage among their consumption structure. Besides, medical cash expenditures of Chinese elderly population are now taking up less than before, due to the increasing subsidies of Chinese government.The results on consumption quantity and structure give us deeper findings. In 2011, an average Chinese elderly people consumed 11.8 thousand Yuan, while an average Chinese resident (all ages included) consumed 10.3 thousand Yuan. The fact that Chinese elderly consumes more than other-age population refutes the old view that population aging would lead to consumption dilemma. It suggests that population aging would not obstruct the economic growth. On the contrary, population aging is a positive factor for the consumption growth of Chinese residents. Moreover, the 2008 and 2012 CHARLS data of Gansu and Zhejiang Provinces make it even more solid to such positive effect. However, in order to make such positive effect come true, we need to take the changes in consumption structure into account. We also need to adjust the entire industry structure and develop elderly industry in order to match the changing quantity and structure of Chinese elderly consumption.The consumption of Chinese elderly population is affected by different factors. In this study, we deliver five main factors and analyze how they make effect. The five factors are social and economic transformation, financial statement of the elderly, living arrangement of the elderly, urbanization, and education level.The first factor, social and economic transformation, effect consumption of the elderly generally from three ways:economic growth raises the wealth of the nation, the family planning policy change the consumption mode of families and generations, and social security system relieve living worries. The second factor, the improvement of economic condition of the elderly people, could be divided into three parts:the improvement of pension system, the weakening of traditional saving motivation, and the wealth accumulation. The three parts contribute to the growth of consumption quantity and consumption ability of the elderly. The third factor, the changing of living arrangement and desire, could never be ignored. Changing from living together with children to living is actually the changing of life focus from children to themselves. Through this changing of living arrangement, the elderly will have growing demands on elderly community, elderly apartment, elderly activity center, housing and caring service, transportation and communication in order to touch with children and grandchildren. Urbanization, as the fourth factor, changes consumption mode of the elderly from rural mode to urban mode. The fifth factor concerns about the increasing of education level. On one hand, the increasing of education level optimizes the consumption mode of the elderly in direct way. On the other hand, it also postpones the life cycle arrangement of working, marriage, fertility and retirement. They both lead to the changing of family consumption mode and individual life cycle financial arrangement. In our study, we also find that the changing of living arrangement, the increase of education level, and the income level of the elderly are three leading factors that have strong impact on the consumption quantity of Chinese elderly population.In future, the consumption of Chinese elderly population will experience huge expansion. The forecast shows that per capita consumption of Chinese elderly population will double during 2020-2025 compared to that of 2011. The double of total consumption will happen even faster (before 2020) than per capita consumption. The total consumption of Chinese elderly population around 2035 will exceed the total consumption of Chinese residents in 2011. Chinese elderly population will consume 40% of the whole consumption market, while the rest 60% will be consumed by the young population and working age population. These trends will lead to fundamental changes to China’s elderly industry and the entire industry structure.The development of elderly industry is strongly needed when considering the consumption demands of Chinese elderly people whenever nowadays or future. We divide the elderly industry into two parts, the elderly consumption goods industry and the elderly service industry. The development of the elderly consumption goods industry calls for the support of science and technology, skilled workers, and new marketing methods, and also, the establishment and improvement of industrial rules and standards. And for the elderly service industry, mainly referring to nursing and caring industry, it is important to make responsibility clear between public and private nursing homes. It is also helpful if our whole society could show more respect to employees working in these elderly nursing and caring industries.To make population aging positive, there are still a lot to concern. To develop elderly industry is necessary, but it is not enough. We should also consider other aspects, including improvements and arrangements from the perspectives of institutional arrangements, society and government, family and individual.Firstly, income arrangement and demand arrangement are both effective ways of institutional arrangements. Pension system needs further improvement to ensure the income of the elderly population. To encourage the elderly involve in economic activities is another effective way to increase income of the elderly. The government could also consider providing goods, consumption tickets, and price subsidy for some certain types of the elderly people, to let them consume. Secondly, contributions from our government and society are also of great significance. To increase the education level of the elderly is an effective way to make the consumption mode of the elderly more advanced. For elderly who live alone, government of basic level should do more to help them economically and physically. The government also needs to make efforts to meet the demands of public facilities and public services for the elderly population. The last but not the least point concerns about family and individual. We suggest to re-build responsibility of family in the role of taking care of the elderly, which includes to encourage young elderly and mid-age elderly pay more attention to their senior-age parents instead of their grandchildren. At individual level, we advice young elderly to engage in "time bank", which senior elderly could get free services depending on their voluntary work when they were in younger-elderly stage. |
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