Study On Visitors Flow Volume Prediction Model Of General Hospitals In China

Planning and designing of Architecture, indoor environment, electric system, urbantraffic and operation management decision are all based on the visitors flow volume.Nowadays hospitals are in rapid development period, it becomes increasingly urgent ofresearch the determination method of visitors flow volume in hospitals.This paper analyzed the directly or indirectly relationship between the phenomenaof difficult access to medical service, poor indoor environment, doctoral-patientcontradiction increasingly fierce, high energy consumption and traffic jam in hospitalsand visitors flow volume of hospitals. Beginning with influencing factors of visitorsflow volume and, indicated the characteristic of visitors flow volume and the influencesof time, space and space-time coupling dependent individually, determined the maininfluence factors, establishes visitors flow volume prediction model and providedscientific method for determining the number of people in Chinese general hospitals.Firstly, the paper investigated the indoor air quality of Chinese general hospitals bycomprehensive use of various survey methods such as literature search, fieldobservation, personnel interview, collective interview and site test. Indicated thecharacteristic of indoor air pollution in Chinese general hospital was the concentrationof CO₂exceed standard and the number of people was the main factor of indoor airquality in Chinese general hospitals.Then, investigated the characteristic of visitors flow volume of hospitals in domesticand abroad by comprehensive use of various survey methods such as literature search,field observation and field artificial statistical. Analyzed the differences of visitors flowvolume characters of hospitals in between China and other countries. Indicated the maininfluencing factors of visitors flow volume of hospitals are medical and health system,medical and health resource, hospital service modes and patient medical behaviormodes. The differences of visitors flow volume of hospitals between China and Unitedand Britain were resulted from the differences of these four aspects. It was unscientificto use the personnel density index of design standards in United States and Britain forChinese general hospital designs.Based on the characters of visitors flow volume variation with time, a dynamicprediction method was proposed to predict the visitors flow volume of public spaces ingeneral hospitals. Nonlinear combination dynamic prediction model was established for public spaces in hospitals without appointment service and coefficient correctiondynamic prediction model for hospitals with appointment service. Factor analysis modelwas established for predict visitors flow volume of clinics and wards in generalhospitals. Given the procedure of solving the model and proved the accuracy of themodel.Lastly, predicted visitor flow volume of registration hall of hospitals withappointment service and without appointment service individually. Based on theprediction results, outdoor air requirement and cooling load were calculated. Results ofcontrast analysis of technical and economic of two HVAC systems design plan forhospitals with different service modes show that appointment service not only reducedvisitor flow volume and improve indoor environments, but also cut down the invests offacilities, saving energy and reduce the difficulty of adjustment and controlling inoperation stage.