Research On Key Techniques Of Complex Airport Terminal Airspace Resources Allocation

With the rapid growth of air traffic, the terminal area as the key node of the aviation transportation network, operating pressure increases gradually, especially busy airport terminal area with higher traffic,which has complex characteristics like intertwined arrival and departure routes, narrow mobile space,higher flights density, airport terminal area has become "bottleneck" airsapce unit with ridden flight conflict, increased flight delays. The terminal area as the research object, research on airspace resource allocation technology can effectively reduce flight delay, improve airspace resource utilization rate, and it has important significance to improve the level of airspace resource management.Based on comprehensive analysis of related research results at home and abroad, from a strategic perspective of airspace resource management, aiming of meeting the traffic strategy demand of terminal area, some key technology and method of terminal airspace resource dynamic allocation were studied, the main research contents and achievements are listed below:Firstly, the analysis method of the factors affecting terminal area capacity was studied. Based on comprehensive analysis of operating characteristics and the concept of terminal area capacity, the main factors affecting the terminal area capacity was analyzed qualitatively, 11 typical airport terminal area were selected as samples, 20 factors were extracted, every factor was dealed as an indicator and quantified, capacity effect factors analysis method was established based on principal component analysis, the importance of the single factor and relationship of multi factors was analyzed, four principal components were refined which reflected the physical capacity, traffic flow distribution, route structure, aircraft type hybrid; principal components as variables, Q type clustering method was used,the 11 terminal area were divided into 5 categories, which is conducive to co-ordinate the formulation of the terminal airspace resource allocation solution.Secondly, the airport terminal area capacity evaluation model was established,and the terminal area capacity effect mechanism was studied. Based on analyzing the characteristics of existing airspace capacity evaluation method, combined with the route physical structure, traffic flow speed, control interval, aircraft type ratio and other factors, the arrival and departure capacity evaluation model based on flow decomposition was established; the runway Pareto capacity envelope as a constraint, the function of arrival and departure capacity relation was cleard, the terminal area ultimate capacity evaluation model based on flow decomposition was established. Taking the Hangzhou terminal area as an example, the trend of terminal area arrival capacity stepped gradient under the influence of badweather was proved, and the arrival capacity variation regulation with transfer interval changed under different operation mode was proved; using factor analysis methodology, the terminal area ultimate capacity variation characteristics and regulation was studied with the change of transfer interval,aircraft type ratio, control interval and other factors, which provide a basis for carrying out the study of terminal area airspace resource allocation.Thirdly, the method of terminal area traffic demand strategy forecast was studied. Based on comprehensive analysis of the applicability of existing typical prediction methods, national movements as predict object, including GDP, population and other economic and social factors which affect movements development, and historical data time series characteristic was considered, econometric prediction model, BP neural network prediction model, gray prediction model was established independent, combination prediction method based on entropy weight was used on the 2020 national airport total movements forecast; ladder subtraction as the main line, with the national total movements prediction results, the weight were forecasted by the exponential smoothing method, the multi level strategic prediction model was established containing area, airport group and multi airport terminal area,single airport terminal area, airport movements before 2020 on different levels were predicted, which laid the foundation for the terminal capacity demand research.Forthly, the terminal area strategy capacity demand forecasting method was studied. Combined with the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of terminal area, on the basis of the national total movement prediction results on all levels, the target airport as the center, the O-D matrix was constructed, prediction methods for schedule demand based on Fratar model was established, in the case of Hangzhou airport, the schedule demand of 2020 was forecasted; in the premise of argumentation the schedule demand Poisson distribution characteristics, the airport terminal area open queuing network model and capacity demand model were established, Hangzhou terminal area capacity requirements on 2020 was studied under the operation model of isolation, half of mixed operation(two departure and one arrival)and mixed operation,which provided the construction goal of terminal area airspace resources.Fifthly, the method of comprehensive assessment of terminal area airspace resource allocation scenario was studied. Combined with the research result on terminal area capacity effect analysis and mechanism, for improve the guarantee capacity of terminal area, three kinds of terminal area airspace resource allocation scenarios were established, for assessing quality grades of each scenario, multi dimension assessment indicator system of terminal area airspace resource allocation scenario was established including the airspace resource utilization rate, service quality, the construction andmaintenance investment, which realized the comprehensive consideration of the qualitative and quantitative indicators, a comprehensive assessment model of terminal airspace resource allocation scenario based on extension multi level state classification was established, the rating of different allocation scenario was assessed, which can provide decision-making and technical support for the airport terminal area future development.From the strategic long-term perspective, this paper established systematical research ideas,studied and enriched the airspace management related theory and method, which can provide a strong support to carrying out the work of the terminal area airspace resource management.