Feasibility Analysis And Planning Of BRT Systems In China Based On Urban Characteristics

More and more cities world-wide are turning to urban transit system as a way to relieve traffic congestion. As an important component of urban transit system, bus rapid transit (BRT) has gained increasing popularity globally, as well as metro tram systems. With the growth of travel demands and the paucity of resources of the urban transportation system in China, vigorously stimulating the car industry’s growing, the patterns which developed countries uses, can not relieve such a huge traffic pressure. Therefore, public transit and private cars engaged in a fierce competition of traffic resources. Especially in the recent years, most of cities in China are plagued by problems such as traffic congestions, accidents, air pollution and other urban issues. In view of these, sustainable public transportation system is put forward as a basic strategy of urban development again. Correspondingly, large-scale planning and construction of BRT systems is being carried out globally.Combined with the current development needs of BRT, this paper focuses on the adaptability analysis of BRT systems which is based on the characteristics of China’s cities, and proposes the methodology about planning, siting and assessment of BRT systems simultaneously. Mainly through the access to a large body of extant literature and the learning of the latest research findings, we have summarized the insufficiency of the current theories and methodologies. Then, through the integrated utilization of transportation planning, information theory, systems engineering and traffic simulation technology, we conduct a systematic study on the adaptability of BRT, and enable a comparison of BRT and metro tram systems, to promote the improvement of the theory about planning and siting, passenger flow forecasting and systematic benefit’s pre-assessment and post-evaluation of BRT.Firstly, this paper has made an analysis about differences of urban development’s characteristics, which is based on the features of BRT systems and metro tram systems in the majority of China’s cities. From the perspective of technical function, investment cost, energy consumption and environmental protection, adaptability and operations management, etc., we have compared advantages and disadvantages of BRT with those of metro tram in politics, economy, traffic and road resource utilization, in the mean time, we have analyzed the problems existed in the development program of BRT and metro tram in China.Secondly, from the view of internal demand factors and external supplement factors of BRT systems, this paper studies the factors that exert influence on the cities and transport corridors, such as urban and economic development level, corridor’s passenger capacity and trip characteristics, traffic conditions and city image, and so forth. Based on the indicators above, this paper establishes a multi-objective decision model with the analytic hierarchy process, constructs the comparison method of BRT, and makes contribution to the formation of the adaptability analysis model of BRT systems.Thirdly, beginning with the passenger flow forecasting as the prerequistite for BRT’s corridor siting, we establish a traffic forecasting model based on land structure entropy of imformation entropy theory. We introduce essential elements of urban land-use planning to transportation planning with the model above, then construct the generalized-gravity passenger trip distribution prediction model, to obtain a algorithm leading to a cosistant results between passenger flow forecasting within traffic analysis plot (TAP) and that of interval trips, in order to elevate the accuracy of the passenger flow forecasting within TAP, and improve scientificity and rationality in the field of transportation planning. Based on the passenger flow forecasting, we establish BRT’s corridor siting strategy, including urban spatial factors, urban land use, transit demand, street space use, operational efficiency of the road network, and so on.Finally, combined with characteristics of urban form and urban transportation in China, this paper proposes the evaluation systems of comprehensive benefit of BRT systems. On the one hand, we establish a pre-assessment system of BRT based on the microscopic traffic simulation technology, to provide a theoretical basis for planners and decision support for decision makers during the construction of BRT. On the other hand, we build post-evaluation indicators of BRT systems based on data got from present traffic detection systems, to evaluate BRT network and optimize the operating management adjunctively. At last, take Guangzhou Province as an example, we assess the systematic benefit of the 1st phase of the line named Zhongshan Avenue with the utilizing of the evaluation model, hereafter, we provide solutions for the problems identified. In this paper, our research findings mainly focus on three points:Adaptability analysis:different from the conventional method, this research, based on features of the majority of China’s cities, makes a comparative analysis of the advantages and disadvantages between BRT systems and metro tram systems, focuses on study on approach of adaptability analysis of BRT systems, undertakes a comprehensive analysis of internal demand factors, including urban and economic development level, corridor’s passenger capacity and trip characteristics, traffic conditions and city image, etc., as well as external supplement factors, including operational efficiency, investment cost, technical function, etc., we finally establish an adaptability-evaluation model based on the hierarchical additive weighting method.Planning and siting of corridors:to meet the demand of corridor’s planning and siting, this paper provides a planning methodology, combined functional orientation with corridor siting, to determine the location of candidate corridors of BRT systems, then uses the model above to make selection of candidate corridors. Furthermore, focusing on the most important indicator-passenger flow, we proposes the passenger-flow-forecasting generalized gravity model with the introduction of land structure entropy parameters. Compared to the conventional gravity models, land structure entropy model and a generalized gravity model with the introduction of entropy parameters have been established in this approach by means of information entropy theory, by which unifying the model for passenger flow forecasting within traffic analysis plot (TAP) and that of interval trips. The model improved the reliability of passenger flow forecasting within TAP, under the premise of ensuring the accuracy of the prediction on interval trips. Our research findings can provide support for controlling for urban land use and transportation demand management’s decision making, for the model can reveal impacts on traffic demand of urban space and land uses with the introduction of entropy model.The establishment of benefit assessment system of BRT:compared to the extant research achievements, this paper provides a integrate evaluation system of benefit’s pre-assessment and post-evaluation based on supporting data resources. During phase of pre-assessment, we establish a systematic pre-assessment strategy based on the micro-simulation, it makes comments on quantizable evaluation indicators, from the perspective of carrying capacity and operating efficiency. Whereas, during the phase of post-evaluation, factors, including transform volume, enhancement of land using, improvement of operating efficiency and the promotion of economic and environment, are emphasized. Especially in the aspect of indicators’calculation, evaluation methodology, based on conventional traffic demand survey, is abandoned. And traffic data that obtained from GPS, operation dispatching, auto-ticket-selling, off-site enforcement and signal control systems should be the main basis of indicators’ calculation, to elevate our evaluation’s scientificity, accuracy and feasibility.In summary, this paper analyzes the characteristics of BRT and metro tram systems by cases studying, which is based on the features of urban form and urban transport. Innovative research has been taken in the adaptability analysis of BRT in China’s urban development, passenger flow forecasting model and the corridor siting strategy of BRT have been proposed, the pre-assessment and post-evaluation system of benefit analysis of BRT systems has been established, at last, we construct a set of relatively complete theory for BRT’s planning,design, corridor siting, benefit analysis, etc., to provide stable theoretical support for both decision-makers and operators of urban transit.