Research On Optimization Of Construction Project Based On Post-disaster Key Road Interruption Impact

China is a country prone to natural disasters. A large number of natural disastersbreak out every year. According to the China Statistical Yearbook, there are100,000geological disasters (refer to disasters of debris flow, landslide and so on) in2006alone. Either the non-ultra-large natural disasters or the ultra-large disasters will causeroad interruption in the disaster area. The ultra-large natural disasters will lead tointerruption of all roads in the disaster area. After some roads some recovered withinthe shortest time, recovery&reconstruction will be started in the area and the roadsrecovered are always key ones. Interruption of key roads will have huge influences onthe construction projects in process in the disaster area, so it is extremely important tostudy reasonably optimization of the construction projects in process andminimization of the influences. Based on much literature and the actual conditions ofinfluences of road interruption on the projects in process after the earthquake inWenchuan in2008and after the typhoon disaster in coastal areas of China every year,the following systematic research has been conducted:1. For difficulty with prediction of the opening time for post-disaster roads, theGM (1.1)-based post-disaster road opening time prediction model has beenestablished, and the matlab algorithm language program has been written for themodel to intelligentize its computation and overcome the shortcoming of tediousnessand difficulty with the manual computation.Meanwhile,the result of opening timeprediction model is compared by the method of SVM.2. For the case that engineering equipment transport is stopped in the period ofkey road interruption after a disaster, the optimal plan selection model based on thesubdivisional work profits&losses utility. Different with the traditional optimalselection model based on the expected utility theory, this model has reflected theinfluences of specific subdivisional work items in need of the engineering equipmentin a mover objective way. The optimal plan selection model has been established fromthe angle of influences of subdivisional work on the whole project. Meanwhile,inadaptability analysis for “prospect theory”, the mainstream method to settle the expected utility theory, has been carried out, and notices for further optimal planselection have been put forward.3. For the actual conditions of fluctuation with the raw materials prices duringthe road interruption period, the inventory purchase and construction managementplan optimization models have been established for corresponding work proceduressuffering the influences. The inventory purchase optimization model is the simpleadjustment based on the EQQ model, while the construction management planoptimization model is the simplified optimization model established based on thesolution result rule analysis when the dynamic planning model is used for solutionsand it is found that the phenomenon of “dimensionality curse” is to appear. Thesimplified optimization model is not only free of the phenomenon of “dimensionalitycurse” but also closer to the actual application.