| The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC AR5) indicated that the annual global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.85℃ during the past 100 years, and is expected to increase by 0.3℃ to 4.8℃ by the end of this century. Climate change has caused and/or is changing many ecological phenomena and processes, e.g., species distributions, and phenology. Traditional static biodiversity conservation measures are hard to meet the need of biodiversity conservation under future climate change. Understanding the suitable habitat change under future climate change and taking specific protection measures are critical for improving the biodiversity conservation effects.In this study, we firstly predicted the suitable habitat change for evergreen broadleaf forest and Sichuan Hill-Partridge (Arborophila rufipectus) by applying biomod2-an integrate platform for species distribution models (SDMs), baseline climate condition data and climate scenario data. Then, we analysed the potential effects of climate change on A. rufipectus based on two dispersal hypotheses. At last, we evaluated the protective capability of current China National Nature Reserve net for A. rufipectus under both baseline climate condition and future climate scenarios, and then identified the critical conserve regions for.4. rufipectus in the future. The main conclusions and results as below:(1) The probable future climate change extremely possible extent the suitable habitat of evergreen broadleaf forest to the interior of Tibetan Plateau, and the suitable habitat area was predicted to increase too.Under the climate scenarios simulated by cccma, csiro, and giss general circulation models (GCMs) for RCP2.6 emission scenario, by 2080s, the suitable habitat area for evergreen broadleaf forest were predicted to increase by 10.7%,10.4% and 8.5%, respectively. Under the climate scenarios simulated by cccma, csiro, and giss GCMs for RCP8.5 emission scenario, by 2080s, the suitable habitat area for evergreen broadleaf forest were predicted to increase by 20.6%,19.8% and 31.8%, respectively.(2) The probable future climate change extremely possible decrease the area, lower the suitability, and aggravate the landscape fragmentation of suitable habitat for A. rufipectus.Under the climate scenarios simulated by cccma, csiro, and giss GCMs for RCP2.6 emission scenario, by 2080s, the suitable habitat area for A. rufipectus were predicted to decrease by 43.1%,52.4% and increase by 49.0%, respectively. Under the climate scenarios simulated by cccma, csiro, and giss GCMs for RCP8.5 emission scenario, by 2080s, the suitable habitat area for A. rufipectus were predicted to decrease by 91.7%,96.5%, and 80.8%, respectively.(3) Dispersal capability is critical for A rufipectus to cope with the future climate change, the weaker dispersal capability for A. rufipectus, the worse of climate change may pose.Under the climate scenarios simulated by cccma, csiro, and giss GCMs for RCP2.6 emission scenario, by 2080s:Under lkm/a dispersal capability hypothesis, the available suitable habitat area for A. rufipectus were predicted to decrease by 42.3%,61.8%, and 0.1%, respectively; Under no dispersal capability hypothesis, the available suitable habitat area fox A. rufipectus were predicted to increase by 1.1%, decrease by 10.3%, and increase by 95.1%, respectively.Under the climate scenarios simulated by cccma, csiro, and giss GCMs for RCP8.5 emission scenario, by 2080s:Under lkm/a dispersal capability hypothesis, the available suitable habitat area for A. rufipectus were predicted to decrease by 94.0%,97.2%, and 87.6%, respectively; Under no dispersal capability hypothesis, the available suitable habitat area for A rufipectus were predicted to decrease by 93.6%,90.8%, and 69.4%, respectively.(4) The protective capability of current China National Nature Reserve net for the suitable habitat and available suitable habitat fox A. rufipectus were predicted to decrease in the future.Under the climate scenarios simulated by cccma, csiro, and giss GCMs for RCP2.6 emission scenario, by 2080s:In current China National Nature Reserve net, the suitable habitat area for A. rufipectus were predicted to decrease by 36.1%,80.9%, and increase by 26.3%, respectively; Under lkm/a dispersal capability hypothesis, in current China National Nature Reserve net, the available suitable habitat area for A. rufipectus were predicted to decrease by 11.7%,73.2%, and 2.2%, respectively; Under no dispersal capability hypothesis, in current China National Nature Reserve net, the available suitable habitat area for A. rufipectus were predicted to decrease by 12.7%,75.7%, and 9.3%, respectively.Under the climate scenarios simulated by cccma, csiro, and giss GCMs for RCP8.5 emission scenario, by 2080s:In current China National Nature Reserve net, the suitable habitat area for A. rufipectus were predicted to decrease 55.9%,100%, and 90.4%, respectively; Under lkm/a dispersal capability hypothesis, in current China National Nature Reserve net, the available suitable habitat area for A. rufipectus were predicted to decrease 80.2%,100%, and 98.5%, respectively; Under no dispersal capability hypothesis, in current China National Nature Reserve net, the available suitable habitat area in current China National Nature Reserve net for A. rufipectus were predicted to decrease 80.2%,100%, and 98.5%, respectively.(5) The region from 28°N to 32°N and 102°E to 104°E is critical for the future efforts to conserve A. rufipectus under future climate change. |
PDF Full Text Request