Research On The Landscape Evaluation Of Land Use/Cover Based On CLUE-S Model

Employing the satellite images of Landsat TM5 from 1998 to 2009 and the integrated techniques of GIS, RS and GPS, the research, with Anji county as a case, studied the dynamic process, spatial-temporal structure and driving factors of land use/cover changes in the nearly ten years, and modeled the possible land use/cover changes scenarios in 2025 based on CLUE-S model, and applied landscape theory, set up two corridor of from east to west and from north to south, compared and assessed the landscape pattern of land use/cover. The study shows that:(1)The dynamic change process of land use/cover in research area is complex that the transfering of land-use types and variation amount are more drastic and disorder from the year of 1998 to 2003 and turn more stability and orderly from 2003 to 2009. Moreover, the emphasis of the spatial-temporal deviation structure is different in the two periods, and both the rate and degree of paddy field and dry land are changed tremendously in the period of 1998 to 2003, and the change of woodland is relatively stable, while the changes of paddy field and dry land are moderate in comparison in the period of 1998 to 2003, and the change of woodland in this period is more stable, and the expansion and rate of urban land continue developing steadily as 1998 to 2003;(2)The temporal-spatial change of land use/cover was driven by many factors. The factors include gradient, elevation, distance to the centre, distance to the nearest road, distance to the nearest river, distance to the nearest lake, distance to the nearest town, output value of agriculture and output value of industry for each person. All driving factors are applied for interpreting the land use change with better effect.(3) Using CLUE-S model simulate and predict distribution of land use/cover in 2009, the kappa is 0.768 by overlaying the data of remote sensing and simulation results in 2009 which shows satisfactory results. The result of simulation shows that all driving factors could interpret the driven mechanism to the land use/cover change. Finally, the research simulate and predict four scenarios about ecological security, food security, natural development and land planning in 2025.(4)The corridor that from east to west and from north to south was set up, based on the land use/cover from 1998 to 2009 and four scenarios in 2025, analyzed landscape compared to kinds of land use/cover. The results show that: ①the landscape features of the sample was changing very rapidly both sides in the center of the city. Especially the degree of fragmentation and openness, the numbers of patch types presented sudden changing of skipping; ②the landscape of patch class from east to west, the gradient feature of arable land, forest land and construction land is evident and orderly, on the contrary, the gradient feature of garden land is disorder and confusion; the landscape of patch class from north to south, the gradient feature of arable land, forest land, construction land and garden land is clearly and orderly;③the gradient feature of overall landscape is more complex than the landscape of patch class, types and quantities in the overall landscape present the process of “increasing gradually-remaining stability-falling rapidly- increasing rapidly” from west to east, and the process of “fluctuation alternating- falling rapidly- increasing rapidly”.