Analysis On Physical Vulnerability And Research On Geological Disaster In Yunnan Power Grid

Most of electric power system is seriously influenced by environmental factors for its directly exposure in natural conditions. There are lots of natural disasters in China. The incidence of various types of natural disasters is directly threatening the safe operation of grid system, which will cause serious destructions and many blackouts troubles, what’s more, it even affects the normal production, life and social stability. And it has positive effects on safe and stable operation of grid system while enhancing the monitoring and warning system in order to reduce the influence of natural disasters. It is also conductive to reduce the economic and material losses both of collectives and individuals. Therefore, it has a very important theoretical significance to research on monitoring and warning of natural disasters, which can generate significant economic benefits.It is a hot topic to research on monitoring and warning of natural disasters in domestic and international disaster in current research field. In the field of grid system, it attracts more and more domestic scholars’ attentions to research on monitoring and warning system of natural disasters, which has produced lots of achievements. However, for the occurrence of natural disasters and the hazard process of grid system are complicated, there are more researches on the mechanism of hazard process, cataclysm dynamic evolution and coupling catastrophic effect.In complex terrain of Yunnan province, there are a lot of geological disasters, such as freezing rain and snow, landslide, earthquake, wildfire. All of these disasters have prominent damage on grid system. Compared with other regions, it can achieve the unity of particularity and generality by researching on physical vulnerability, safety risk assessment, early warning and emergency management and control system in Yunnan Gird. The landslides, mudslides, earthquakes and other geological disasters have been selected as research environments. It was studied that includes the hazard characteristics of the geological disasters, distribution law of disaster vulnerability, disaster bearing force of grid system, cataclysm coupled dynamic evolution, risk assessment model and risk zoning and warning model and so on. The perfect monitoring and warning system has been established and the risk and control measure has been proposed to investigate scientific theory of grid system dealing with geological disasters. The following four aspects are mainly included in the paper:(1) Research on characteristics of geological disasters and disaster-causing mechanism of Yunnan Grid. It analyzes the main types of geological disasters, the distribution characteristics and the losses of various geological disasters in Yunnan Grid. It also finds the time and space distribution of the occurrences and the degree of regional disaster. Then, combined with the formation mechanism, catastrophic dynamical evolution and statistics, it determines the distribution law of disaster vulnerability in regions.(2) Research on dynamic evolution of hazard behavior in geological disasters. It is studied that includes the dynamic evolution, coupling knock-on effect law of disasters and grid hazard bearing body and dynamic evolution of the multi-level effects based on disaster energy field. According to catastrophic dynamic model, it establishes dynamic evolution model and simulation analysis technology of landslides, mudslides and earthquakes and other hazard behaviors. It considers the law of destruction or damage of the typical grid hazard bearing body. After establishing mathematical model and simulation analysis, it divides the disaster bearing capacity of grid hazard bearing body into many grades and establishes the disaster bearing capacity model to assess integrated disaster bearing capacity of different scales and different hazard bearing bodies. It also determines characteristics of vulnerability and resistance to impact of geological disasters of disaster bearing body of regional power grid.(3) Research on risk assessment of grid geological disasters. It establishes catastrophe risk of regional grid system and studies coupling relationship model of disaster vulnerability and hazard vulnerability and establishes the catastrophe risk assessment model according to characteristics of disasters and grid system, monitoring data and the relationship between disaster vulnerability and hazard vulnerability of disaster bearing body. It discusses catastrophe risk classification standard of regional grid system and forecasts risk and the long-scale catastrophe risk distribution in grid system attracted by natural disasters. It also analyzes the magnitude distribution change law of catastrophic risks resulted from precipitating factors. It mainly studies risk assessment of grid geological disasters according to the monitoring and warning system of Yunnan Grid. The first innovation of this part lies in that it puts forward the concept of weighted point density in geological disasters, establishes the matrix calculation model, and gives the calculation examples combined with the specific circumstances in Yunnan. The other innovation lies in that it considers the coefficient of proportionality and population density and economic density in the calculation of indirect economic loss of a single transmission line in a disaster, which overcomes the simplistic and rough solution to define indirect economic loss in a disaster according to the ratio of indirect loss and direct loss.(4) Research on monitoring and warning system and catastrophe risk management control of grid geological disasters. It establishes the rules, methods and models of catastrophic emergency decision-making analysis. And it proposes the auxiliary decision support of catastrophe risk according to the result of monitoring and dynamic catastrophe risk assessment to guide the appropriate precautions of staff timely. It also establishes risk management and control system of regional grid. Then it establishes advanced forecasting and warning and emergency response mechanism and forms feedback control system. The innovation of the this part lies in that Recognition-primed Decision Model (RPD) and the evaluation decision model of information entropy are introduced into the field of emergency command decision-making in power grid. And based on above, emergency decision-making system is formed for power system.