The Crisis And Its Prevention For Unsold Commercial Houses

Real estate industry is connected to the environment of economy and resources closely. The dual nature of a house, living and investment, makes it play a very important role in support people's living condition and improving the society's economic operation.This research focuses on establishing an integrated management system for unsold commercial houses based on the interactions on the mechanism of unsold commercial house,identifying the crisis, integrated monitoring, and internal control and external security. This system will promote a healthy and sustainable growth for the real estate industry itself and the society's economy by its efficient operation, adjusting the quality of the unsold commercial houses,stabilizing the capital supply, and reducing the integrated risks.We can not simply copy the existing models used by other countries,which focus on their societies, since we are in the different economic system and conditions.Under the market economy circumstances,we are lack of experiences for developing the real estate industry. The information disclosure is insufficiency. The knowledge for unsold commercial houses is limited.We are facing a difficult situation that both the commercial house price and the total number of unsold commercial house are raising simultaneously. It leads some potential issues for our society. The implementation of an integrated management system,which will allocate the resources and manage the unsold commercial houses across different sections,has a significant theoretical and practical value for maintaining a suitable construction scale,preventing the unsold commercial houses crisis,and improving the economic control in macro scoop.Based on the clear defined concepts and characterizes, this paper analyzes the backward correlation, the forward correlation, and the circumferential correlation in the real estate industry in China, as well as its main pillar position in our national economy. It describes the relation between real estate industry and the economic development by using the input-output technique and production model.It conducts the contribution ratio of real estate industry to economic growth and its effects to the economy by revised "Business Contribution Ratio.The ration is 9.07% for Shenyang in 2005.All these establish a strong foundation for building an integrated management system for unsold commercial houses. This paper proposes a "House Information" function which could be used for identifying the total unsold commercial house on the market by comparing the statistic data and market survey. It analyzes the consisting of the unsold commercial houses.It proofs the inevitability of the unsold commercial house by analyzing the unsold mechanism.It analyzes the risk of too many unsold commercial houses and the hurts to the market of too less unsold commercial houses.It clearly defines the "Not Used House" and investigates its consequent advantages and disadvantages.Based on the current national unsold commercial house index,combined with the yearly rebounding factor and the increasing of existing commercial house,it establishes an index system which includes unsold commercial house rate V1,yearly unsold commercial house rate V2 and Total unsold commercial house rate V3.Regarding to the market condition in Shenyang, using V1 for 10%-30%, V2 for 10%-405,and V3 for 5%-10%. it establishes a reasonable floating range for various indexes and completes the verification with an excellent result.It elects 9 evaluation indexes and clarifies the evaluation criteria(normal floating rang) by optimizing and combining 11 monitor indexes.It defines five warning limits for early warning anticipation.It establishes a monitor system with interactive processes for real estate market and anticipates the early warning by using "Integrated Value for Early Warning" and "Traffic Light" methods.Using the consecutive,homogenous date in Shenyang in recent years to verifies the system.The result shows that the real estate market in Shenyang is a little too cool in 1998 and a little over heated in 2005.It builds a BP network model used for anticipating early warning for real estate market in Shenyang.It has an optimizing analysis program which helps to monitor systematically, continuously, and dynamically. It greatly enriches the integrated unsold commercial house management system.Along with the optimizing land supply and purchase process,it is necessary to increase the supply of low-cost indemnificatory houses to improve the structure of the supply for commercial house and intensify project management for real estate development.It also needs to improve the insurance system,including house quality warranty and insurance for business practice liability, and business credibility evaluation system.Enforcing the integrated management system for unsold commercial houses by the business internal control will produce the momentum for the industry. Along with guiding the house demand and improving the mechanism for financial risk control,optimizing the integrated management for unsold commercial houses by using the new and innovated policies and mechanisms for the business external secure mechanism,such as imposing the property tax to optimize taxation, restricting the sale for the future house on the market, clarifying the government's role,mortgage securitization, etc....This will balance the business operation and could have the coupling action between sections within the system and the dynamic optimization.