Research On Countermeasures Of Supply Disruption

The two major trends of the development of the supply chain throughout the world are lean production and globalization. Indeed, the two trends have brought tremendous benefits to the companies and supply chains which advocate the ideas of lean production and globalization. As the ideas of lean production and globalization grow in popularity in the world, the supply chains become more and more complicated and efficient. However, it is discovered that this supply chain tends to be very fragile. If there are some disruptions happening in the supply chains, the supply chains which are well-designed and well-functioning before are often subject to tremendous negative impact, and even paralyzed. With the continual occurrence of the supply chain interruptions caused by disruptions, people have to reassess the idea of supply chain management advocated before. The disruptions happening in the supply chains make people awaken. People gradually realize that extreme pursuit of low-cost and high efficiency is undesirable. With continuous development of globalization and lean production, it is the time for people to think over the interruptions caused by different types of disruptions.However, the research on the disruptions from the perspective of supply chain management is just started, and even the research on many areas is still not started. Because the academic research on the disruption in the supply chain is delayed comparing to the urgent need by the companies which have to face up to the challenges brought by the disruption in the supply chain, it is undoubted that there exits the contradictions. Consequently, it is meaningful both theoretically and practically for us to do the academic research on the disruption from the angel of supply chain management.Based on supply chain management, in the paper, we mainly research the disruption mechanism and the countermeasures against the supply crisis in the supply chain. In the research, we use both quantitative and qualitative methods to do the research. To compensate the weakness of the current research method, we relatively focus on the quantitative research methods. This paper can be roughly divided into four parts. The main outlines of the research are as follows:The first part includes the first chapter and the second chapter. The first chapter is the introduction of the whole paper, and the second chapter is the literature review. In the chapter one, firstly, we introduce the background of the study. Secondly, we demonstrate the significance of this study both theoretically and practically. Thirdly, we introduce the frameworks of the study. In the end of chapter one, we demonstrate the innovations of the study.In the chapter two, we review the present literatures related to the different types of the disruption in the supply chain. We do the literature review work from three angels, namely, the risk management of the supply chain, disruptions and emergency management, and contracts of the supply chain. It is found that although there are many relevant research literatures in the three aspects, the literature of the disruption from the angel of supply chain management is extremely rare. The standpoint of the paper is the research on the mechanism and countermeasures based on the supply chain management. What we want to do is to compensate the current weakness of the research on the disruption about supply chain to some extent.The second part is about the mechanism of disruptions in the supply chain and mainly includes chapter three.In the research process of the mechanism of disruptions in the supply chain, firstly, we give the demonstration and definition of the relevant concepts and researching scope. We demonstrate that the research work is based on the supply chain management. Secondly, we divide the disruptions into three main categories, namely, the disruptions related to the logistics, information flow and capital flow respectively. In the paper, we use both the conceptual model and mathematical model to research the diffusion mechanism of disruption in the supply chain. We discuss the diffusion laws of the disruptions in the supply chain with the shape of chain and mesh. In addition, with the assumption of the fluctuations in the price at the starting point of the supply chain, we research the change of the price fluctuation spread through the supply chain. In the researching process of the recovery mechanism, we consider the recovery process when the recovery measures are taken by the companies directly or indirectly affected. Additionally, in the end of chapter three, we also research the influence of the company union on the recovery process of the supply chain.The third part is about the countermeasures against the supply crisis in the supply chain, and includes chapter 4~chapter 7. In this part, we mainly research the countermeasures before, during and after the disruption happening in the supply chain.In the research process of the preventive measures before the happening of the disruptions, we mainly consider two kinds of the disruptions, namely, the very high purchasing price lasting a long period of time and the interruption of the supply in the supply chain. For the disruption of high purchasing price, we present the optional forwards to deal with this kind of disruptions. The ways to identify the key parameters of the optional forwards are given. It is proven that by this kind of methods, the distributors can avoid the negative influence of large fluctuations in the wholesale price, and at the same time, this method can also make the whole supply chain achieve the purpose of enhancing overall efficiency and profit. To avoid the negative influence of the disruptions of supply interruptions, we bring forward the preventive measures of interruptible contracts and procurement in advance according to different types of supply chain structures. In addition, we also consider the situation of information asymmetry about the procurement costs in the research.In the research on countermeasures during disruptions, we mainly research the strategies of selecting warning levels of the contingency plans and when to activate the contingency plans. First of all, we consider the influence of safety inventory which has been consumed, the decrease in the supply and duration of the decrease in supply and give the way to select the warning level of the contingency plans. Then we research the strategy of when to activate the contingency plans. The company both completely without and with some information about the duration time of the disruptions are considered. As for the situation of the company with some information, we consider the companies in the supply chain have and have not the same risk aversion factor respectively. In each situation, we give the coordinating measures to coordinate the activating time of the contingency plans in the supply chain.In the research on countermeasures after disruptions, when the supplier can not provide the commodities to the distributor in the downstream of the supply chain because of the disruptions, we research the way to coordinate the recovery process of the disrupted supply chain after disruptions by the measures of assistances or fines. In the research, we consider the situation where there exits information asymmetry about the influence caused by the disruptions on the distributors. The paper also considers the influence of the company union on the recovery process of the supply chain. It is proven that the there are some advantages for the supply chain to deal with the disruption with the existence of the union.In this paper, we also research the counntermeasures of entire process. We research the coordinating measures to coordinate the preventive measures and the recovery process when the supplier can not provide the commodities to the distributor because of the disruptions. We give the way to identify the occurrence probability of the disruptions caused by the natural disasters happening in the supply chain based on self-organized criticality and extreme value theory. We research the coordinating problems about the preventive measures and the recovery process of different types of supply chain structures. The coordinating measures include assistances and fines. In the research, we also respectively consider the supplier subject to the disruptions is risk neutral and risk averse.The fourth part is the summary of the whole paper, and includes the chapter 8. In this paper, we summarize the main research conclusions, and demonstrate the future research directions.The innovations in the paper are as follows:1. In accordance with the evolution process of the disruption in supply chains, the mechanisms of occurrence, proliferation and resumption have been researched.In the study of disruptions and countermeasures in supply chains, it is basic to research the mechanism of the disruption. However, the research about mechanisms is very rare at present. In this paper, the disruption mechanisms about occurrence, proliferation and resumption have been researched respectively.2. In the research on countermeasures of disruption, complex structure of the supply chains have been taken into account.In this paper, to make the research more realitic, a number of structures of the supply chains have been researched, such as mutiple distributors with one supplier, one distributor with multiple suppliers and multiple coustomers, one distributor with multiple suppliers. At present, however, most of the research is focused on the structure of one supplier with one distributor.3. In the research on countermeasures of disruptions, the recovery cost and time have been considered, and in the same model, the prevention measure and restoration measure have been researched and optimized simultaneouslyAs for the supply chains, one of the important factors related to the influence brought by the disruptions is recovery time. To analyze the effect of the recovery time on the recovery process, the study of recovery cost and time has been done. In addition, at present, the prevention measures and resumption prcess are often studied separately. In this paper, we integrate the prevention measures and recovery measures in one model, and give the unified optimization method.4. Option, asymmetric information and risk aversion factor have been brought into the research on prevention measures and recovery process in supply chians.In this paper, the objective of option is to make the company avoid the procurement crisis led by the serious price rise which lasts for a long time, and resolve the crisis of seriously financial loss which the company may face. In addition, asymmetric information has been taken into account in the research on recovery process and cost. We also research the effect of risk aversion factor on prevention measures and recovery process. In the past research, however, there are rare literatures to bring option, asymmetric information and risk aversion factor into the disruption management in supply chain. 5. Extreme Value Theory and the self-organized criticality characteristics have been brought into the research on disruption management in supply chains, which resolves the key problem of the probability of disruption occurrence in supply chain partially.By introduction of Extreme Value Theory and the characteristics of self-organized criticality, the key problem of the probability of disruption in supply chains led by natural disaster has been resolve to some extent.