Study Of Change Of Rice Yield-Demand And Balanced Alarming Method In Southeast China

The rice production and consumption of Southeast China is the majority of China's, and it is very important for the food security of the whole country. Rice crops are planted in our country's largest food crops. South-east as China's main rice-producing areas and the main consumption areas, and its rice production and consumption are on the national food security of vital importance. In recent years, the annual output of rice decreases continually, and this may result in the rice deficient and impact the food supply safety of China. In order to stabilize the rice price in the market and guarantee the yield-demand balance, it is necessary to establish the macro adjusting and monitoring system of rice production and consumption for regional rice produce management and the macro decision-making of food safety.In the study, remote sensing, geographical information system and statistical techniques have been integrated to develop analyzing technology of monitoring and warning rice yield-demand balance and derive annual rice yield-demand data and regional social economic data. The series of annual rice yield and consumption, the pattern and its change have been analyzed and the shortage of rice yield-demand balance has been evaluated in last 58 years. The alarming information of rice plantation area and output per unit has also been derived for each shortage grade in each province or autonomous region.The study has obtained the following conclusions:(1) According to the analysis on rice production and demand patterns, early warning research subjects, as well as architecture and access to sources of data, Production and demand analysis and production-demand equilibrium model of the concept of early warning methodology are proposed, and,the essential condition of rice production, plantation area has the characteristics of fluctuation, and analysis of rice production and demand the design principles of monitoring indicators for rice production and demand to monitor the content of the needs and the availability of information, namely the design of the rice production, the demand for monitoring and early warning indicator system. (2) Seeking approval of a sample survey method, time series analysis, and factor analysis and yield estimation by remote sensing method to obtain the regional rice production bases the complement and improve the rice data acquisition methods. Focus on monitoring the use of remote sensing technology, made of rice growth monitoring methods, yield prediction methods, an area of plant output estimation method and the prediction and estimation methods. At the same time, an analysis of rice demand and the demand for food, feed grain, industrial use of grain, seeds and rice grain depletion of the different needs, give the corresponding calculation model for regional rice production and demand pattern analysis and balanced to provide early warning data to obtain the theoretical basis.(3) On discussing in the south-east rice production resources, in-depth analysis of more than 50 years the southeast region of rice acreage, average yield, as well as changes in production processes, changes in magnitude and trend, respectively, proposed changes in rice acreage, the average yield of change as well as the output of the fitting model change. The district of rice sown area changes in the amount of change in average yield, as well as changes in production volume can be predicted in south-east. The impact of proposed changes in rice production south-east of the main factors, and food demand, feed grain, industrial use of grain, seed grain and rice depletion analysis of five south-east of rice demand and rice production and demand patterns, such as the south-east rice production warning provided sufficient basis.(4) The rice production and demand balance in the production of early warning indicators of volatility coefficient, fluctuations in demand factors and self-sufficiency rate of fluctuation coefficient, studied rice production and demand balance in the division of early warning alarm level, and each class Police Superintendent the connotation are analyzed and calculated. Base on these, the fluctuation coefficient of production, demand fluctuation coefficient and self-sufficiency rate fluctuation coefficient warning alarm limit are designed, which has been in recent years the southeast region of rice production and demand situation police. At the same time, the main warning signs are deeply analyzed by the rice yield, rice area and rice yield of three indicators, the depth analysis of the shortage of rice production and demand, and prediction rice production in south-east of the next few years.