| Ever-expanding population made people strongly feel the crisis of survival and development brought by the scarcity of resources. Cultivated land resources as the essence of land resources, it is also a scarce resource irreversible. It is not only the base of human survival and development, but one of the eight core areas in today's global environmental change research. In a certain sense, the safety of cultivated land resources is an important issue of the resources and environmental security and economic and social development sustainably. It also the core content of the top five issues of population, food, energy, resources and environment human faced. The connotation of safety of cultivate land resources from the very beginning the meaning of a simple evolution of cultivated land resources in the quantity of safety to the quantity of safety, quality and safety, ecological safety, food security and so on. In population growth and the social continuous development today, the cultivate land resources load increasing the pressure. According to the related studies show that:1 people for each additional 0.08hm2need of land for housing, transportation, communications and waste dumps,0.08hm2 of arable land need for food production,0.08hm2 of arable land need for food production. In the future, it is difficult to reverse that the situation that shortage of cultivate land resources for a long period of time in China. To ensure the safety of arable land resources is an essential requirement for the objective.Based on systematically summed up the cultivated land security research in progress at home and broad, the study started from the concept and content of cultivated land resources security to point out that the security nature of cultivated land resources is a good security system running. And the security system structure, element, environment, functional are analysized. Then operation mechanism of cultivated land resources security system at external force and process of interaction between subsystems is studied depth. The research suggests that the security system is mainly in terms of the interaction of resources, environment, economic and social forces, towards a good or bad direction development. Thus extract the indications framework to reflect the full extent of cultivated land resources security. After illustrated the regulation, meaning, content, goals and emphasis, the paper design security control simulated methods in the different scenarios. Finally, Jiangsu Province as a case, with a variety of quantitative and qualitative methods is detailed demonstrated emphatically. The main content of the statements and conclusions are follows:First, in this study, the concept of cultivated land resource security is defined. The paper considers that the narrow nature of cultivate land resources security is up around the good operation of security system, including both aspects:Cultivated land subsystem should be able to meet the sustained and healthy socio-economic subsystem operation and in the human for product and non product-related process, cultivated land system be able to maintain the self-regulation and self-restore the ability. The cultivated land resources security in a broader sense refers to country's survival and development does not exist the danger and threat status because of cultivated land resources. It mainly includes the following three aspects:National sovereignty is not threatened seriously as a result of cultivated land resource; National interests are not the serious losses as a result of cultivate land resource; National development is not threatened seriously as a result of cultivate land are.Second, the concept, structure, function of cultivated land resources security system are analysized. Cultivated land resources security system is mainly divided into artificial and natural sub-system subsystem that is cultivated land and socio-economic subsystem. Cultivated land resources security system is a certain structural and functional natural evolution-the socio-economic complex system that biological systems, environmental systems, economic systems and social systems form which interact through the material, energy and information of the exercise, exchange, storage and feedback, the system towards the direction each other to adapt to by the people's initiative. Cultivated land resources subsystem is the basis of socio-economic subsystems, and socio-economic subsystem is counter-productive in cultivated land resources subsystem. Cultivated land resources security system with the two main functions:material production and restore and nine characteristics:integrity, stability, hierarchy, self-organization, and control, mutation, dissipation, openness and multi-objective.Third, The operation mechanism of cultivated land resources security is studied. The main security running body of cultivated land resources includes human and cultivated land system. Security operation mechanism of cultivated land is from the dominant position of human to research interaction and interactive process between human and cultivated land system during the process of cultivated land use. Cultivated land resources security system has a self-sustaining, self-regulation and its resistance to a variety of stress and anti-jamming ability of elastic force. The security operation of cultivated land resources, that is, by the external forces of "human", the land resources system is in the elastic range of a good running. If the external force by human exceeds the elastic range, cultivated land resources security system will enter the plastic state. If the external force was further enlarged, to meet or exceed the use limits of cultivated land resources, cultivated land resources system will be damaged seriously, until the collapsed. This is the process of cultivated land resources security system from elastic deformation to plastic deformation until the collapse. Thus, cultivated land use should be controlled at a flexible range.Fourth, the regional evaluation index system of cultivated land resource is constructed. Based on the above researches, the paper insists on the view of system science, draws the current cultivated land resources security evaluation index system had been formed, uses the Chiang Kai-shek in physics, reaction with the positive and negative feedback logic in systems, and builds a index system that can reflect fully the extent of cultivated land resources security index system from resources, environmental, economic, and social forces of cultivate land resource security. In the index system, emergy indexes and traditional indicators are combined to overcome existing deficiencies in traditional evaluation index system. Under the guidance of catastrophe theory, the catastrophe model is used to evaluate the security degree of cultivate land resource and a gray one-element model is use to predict trends of cultivated land resources security.Fifth, control on the cultivated land resources security is researched. Reaches on security control is carried out based on modern control theory. From the control theory point of view, the cultivated land resources security system is mainly composed of three parts:controlled system (one of cultivated land resources system or an integral part of), regulation and control system (socio-economic system), and environment (of the controlled systems and control systems of the external environment). The control of Cultivated land resources security system is that external environmental interference or control the impact of cultivated land resources security system up to meet the requirements or objectives, and socio-economic system, through the cultivated land resources system for feedback information found that the deviation with the target behavior, in accordance with acts of bias adjustment to achieve the purpose.In the end, Jiangsu Province as a case, the security posture of cultivated land resources, spatial distribution pattern as well as the development trend are emphatically researched. The research on security posture indicates:the security posture of cultivated land resources fluctuations lightly on the whole during the past 12 years, mainly involves range from security region to insecure region. The cultivated land resources security situation is better during the stage of 1999-2002, in a flexible sub-interval, in particular, the security degree arrives the history highest point in 2000; From the spatial distribution pattern, the safety of the southern region vis-a-vis the central and northern regions, the relatively lower. The level of economic development and the safety of cultivated land resource are closely related to. So the government should focus on areas of arable land in the southern of Jiangsu safety situation; According to prediction results of GM(1,1), the safety of cultivated land resources development trends from 2008 to 2020 is calculated:except the economic force rising slightly, the resources, environmental, and social forces have varying degrees of decline and cultivated land resources is in further deterioration of security situation.According to the simulation results under different scenarios of cultivated land resources security, the research determines 11 key factors impacted cultivated land resources security system:per capita cultivated land, cultivated land mass index, emergy output stability index, emergy per capita net income, net emergy output per cultivated land, farmland protection policies, distribution difference index between urban and rural distribution, rate of industrial wastewater discharge standards, industrial emergy load per cultivated land, the environmental loading ratio of cultivated land, three wastes loading associated with the production per cultivated land, and population density. The security status before and after key factors are controlled are compared and discovered that The security status after control is better obviously than before, and the level of cultivated security after the control is near the security range. In the end, for the potential safety problems, from the start to enhance the four aspects of the resources, environment, economic, and social force our society, six control recommendations are put forward six recommendations:(1) Control population growth, improve the quality of the population; (2) Establish the scientific protection of ideas, enhance awareness of farmland protection; (3) Effectively control the scale non-agricultural land, improve land use; (4) Rationally develop the land reserve resources to ensure that the dynamic balance of the total arable land; (5) Change traditional agricultural production, control of cultivated land of agricultural pollution, and enhance economic of farmer; (6) Prevent and control industrial "three wastes" pollution, improving the ecological environment of arable land;(7)Develop the protection policy for cultivated land according to the different development regions.
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