Export Growth Model And Its Impact On The Pattern Of Economic Growth: Cross-country Empirical Analysis

The fast export growth is a common phenomenon of the world, however, there are great differences of their growth patterns. The developed countries mainly export high quality and high price goods while the developing countries mainly export low price and large quantities , which shows the difference between developing and developed countries. This difference has great influence on economic development. The high quality and high price means intensive research and high technology while the low price means intensive resources , which shows different position in the international specialization. Therefore , the research of export growth pattern is really important.Comparing with economic growth theory and empirical work, the trade growth topic is far from enough. On the one side ,there is no systematic trade growth theory to show the stage the path and the influence of trade growth; on the another side ,there is no uniform method to decompose trade growth into meaningful parts. This paper analyzes the existing trade theories extensively and deeply ,then we propose the dynamic path of trade growth ,that is from zero trade to extensive margin quantity margin and last to price margin. Also we develop an empirical method to decompose export growth into three parts: extensive margin growth,quantity growth and price growth. Based on the theory and method ,we analyze the export growth pattern of the whole world during the year 1995 to 2004.The dissertation has seven parts. Introduction explains the motivation background and structure .Chapter 1 reviews the literature. Chapter 2 focus on the empirical method of this paper. Chapter 3 uses the method developed in Chapter 2 to analyze the trade growth of the whole world and find the common characteristic of the world export growth. Chapter 4 analyzes the difference of trade growth pattern, using the further developed decomposition method in Chapter2. Chapter 5 discusses the influence of export growth pattern on the economic growth . Chapter 6 is the conclusion and further topic of the dissertation.The dissertation reaches the following main conclusions. Firstly quantity growth is the major source of China's export growth, while China's export price growth is slower than most countries. Secondly , quantity growth is the common phenomenon of world trade growth; when the common quantity growth deleted from countries' export growth ,it shows great differences among countries: the developed countries mainly rely on price growth while the developing countries mainly rely on the extensive margin growth . Thirdly, bilateral distance,income level influence the trade growth pattern ,the shorter of the distance ,the richer of the importer, the more quickly the extensive margin grows ; the longer of the distance, the richer of the importer, the more quickly price grows; the shorter of the distance, the poorer of the importer, the more quickly quantity grows. Finally ,generally speaking ,the developing and the developed countries shows different export growth pattern ,which verifies the proposition of the dynamic trade growth path.