Research On Risk Management And Benefit Of Enterprise Informatization Investment Decision

Enterprises are the cells of the national economy; the basic of the national economy informatization is the enterprise informatization. To accelerate the build speed of the enterprise informatization is not only the key to impel to build the national economy informatization but also the basic work to realize the strategy of informatization drive industrialization, speed up industrialization process and realize the overstepping development of society productivity. Because to build informatization can enhance the capability of competition and continuous development themselves, lots of modern enterprises participate in. But because it is the quite complicated system engineering and has the character of great investment, long period, more factors and high risk, to build the enterprise informatization has the higher failure rate. So it has an important academic value and practical meaning for evading the risk in the process of building the enterprise informatization and researching the relationship between the investment value of enterprise informatization and the enterprise performance.By using the new research results and knowledge of multidisciplinary such as modern enterprise management theory, option theory, system engineering theory, operation research and econometrics theory, in the basis of reference and innovation, the paper constructed the frame and the model of risk analysis of the enterprise informatization investment decision in the different situation. By using the theory of econometrics and combining the real informatization input-output data of China manufacturing enterprise, the paper researched the relationship between the investment value of enterprise informatization and the enterprise performance.From the multi-view, the paper analyzed the risk factors of the enterprise informatization investment decision and provided different solution. First, in order to solve the problem of how to identify and measure the informatization investment decision risk factors, the paper constructed the risk analysis Interpretative Structural Modeling of enterprise informatization investment decision based on rough set. The model can provide the integrate frame for the enterprise to control the investment risk; secondly, in order to solve the problem of how to choose and invest when they face several informatization projects, the paper constructed the risk control frame of several informatization projects investment decision based on real option theory. The frame can provided the correct decision support for the enterprise and make their decision more flexible when they are in the fierce market competition environment; finally, in order to solve the informatization investment decision problem of the group enterprises, the paper constructed the bi-level programming investment decision model combined with the character of the group enterprises. In the model, the upper level was the government investment benefit maximization model and the lower level was the enterprise benefit maximization model. The model can provided the scientific decision process for the group enterprises informatization investment.Combined with the serial informatization data of China manufacturing enterprise for several years, by using the econometrics theory such as co-integration theory, Granger causality test model, VAR model, the impulse response functions and variance decomposition method, the paper researched the relationship between the investment value of enterprise informatization and the enterprise performance. The result provided the scientific guidance for our enterprise to build the real enterprise informatization.