Research On The Evolution Of Telecommunication Industry System Based On Selforganization Theory

Telecommunication industry is fundamental to the development of national economy and informationization of other industries. Because of technological progress and the globalization of world economy, Chinese telecom industry is facing intensive competitive challenges. At present, China's telecom industry has made great achievements, but it still can not meet the requirements of the national economy development. There are many problems, such as a low level of opening to the outside, the poor coordination of sub-systems, the poor capability of independent innovation, the weakness of international competitiveness, and so on. China's telecom industry is facing the adjustment and transformation. The revitalization of China's telecommunications industry will be a major mission at present and in the future. The limitations of the traditional industry economy theory are gradually revealed in the study of the telecom industrial economy. A new perspective is needed, from which the telecom industry can be studied deeply. A systematic research on the evolution of the telecom industry has an important theoretical value and practical significance. In this dissertation, the telecom industry is regarded as a complex system whose dissipative structure character, basic driving force, ways of realization and evolutionary internal and external manifestations are studied from the view of self-organization evolution. And some multidisciplinary knowledge is comprehensively used, including self-organization theory, the gray system theory and complex adaptive systems theory. Through the whole process of research, the characteristics and practical problems of telecom industry are taken into account carefully. The methods of the quantitative and qualitative analysis, analog and transplantation analysis, and multi-agent system modeling are adopted to research the evolopment of telecom industry. Specific studies are as follows:(1) The main elements of system which constitute the telecom industry, together with their functions and the external environment, are firstly analyzed. Then the complexity characteristics of the telecom industry system are also analyzed. In this paper, Taken's embedding theorem and the time delay phase space reconstruction ideology are used to construct the time series of economic indicators (that is, the total amount of telecommunication services of the telecom industry). By calculating the fractal dimension of the time series, the telecom industry is proved to be a complex system.(2) The self-organization mechanism of the telecom industry is analyzed from the point of system. We think that the evolution developmentof the telecom industry is a complicated result of self-organization and hetero-organization. Based on the feasibility of self-organization, the dissipative structure criterion of the telecom industry and the entropy are analyzed. By using Brusselator, the instability condition and mechanism, which result in that telecom industry becomes a dissipative system, are quantitatively analyzed.(3) The synergetic evolution model of telecom industry is established by synergy and gray system modeling method, and synergetic order parameter of telecom industry system is drawn. The order parameter is the user demand, telecommunications investment and innovation of telecom services. These three order parameters simultaneously decided the the evolutionary direction of telecom industry. From the synergy model it concludes that the driving force of China's telecom industry evolution is shifting from investment-driven mode to innovation-driven and demand-driven mode. Meanwhile, the telecom industry collaboration and competition mechanism is analyzed from the different levels including the enterprise level, industry chain analysis level. Finally, based on complex adaptive system theory and multi-agent modeling method, the coordination mechanism between telecom operators and SP is analyzed by computer simulation.(4) The evolution development path of telecom industry is analyzed by means of the hypercycle and catastrophe theory. There exits hypercycles among the internal elements of each subsystem and among subsystems of telecom industry system. These hypercycles induced the competition and collaboration among the main elements of subsystems and among subsystems of telecom industrial systems. Through these expanding hypercycle chains, fluctuation phenomena of the system will bring the accumulation of local changes. When the accumulation exceeds a certain threshold, it eventually leads to catastrophe phenomenon of the telecom industry. The external evolution way of the telecom industry system shows two forms, that is gradual evolution and calamity. Through the external gradual change and calamity forms of the system, the telecom industry system follows the evolutionary approaches from disorder to order development. Telecom industry system calamity is closely linked with the development of communication technology. Telecom industry value chain's structural change is caused usually by the development of communication technology.(5) Based on demonstration analysis, it is validated that the evolutionary process of China's telecom industry follows Logistic curve. At the same time, the problems in the China's telecom industry development are analyzed by using self-organization theory. And the correspondent strategies of the 3G telecom industry development are put forward.