Research On Calculation And Prediction Methods Of Regional Total Logistics Cost

Regional logistics industry development plan is a government guidance document. Reasonable plan can be beneficial to integrate regional logistics resources and promote coordination development of regional economy. It also can be beneficial to provide conditions for cultivating regional logistics market and improve regional economic environment and natural environment. Regional total logistics cost is comprehensive evaluation index of regional logistics industry development level, and is an absolutely necessary part of research on regional logistics industry development plan. To some extend, it is also one strategic target of regional logistics industry development plan. How to effectively reduce regional total logistics cost is the basic purpose of making regional logistics industry development plan.Regional total logistics cost is the expenditure on regional logistics activities from the perspective of social reproduction overall. To a considerable extend, regional total logistics cost can reflect the development of the modern logistics industry, the industry structure and the logistics management of a certain local enterprises, so it is regarded as an important index to value the economic development quality of a certain region. Therefore, Studies of regional total logistics cost which include calculating, evaluating, analyzing and forecasting total logistics cost can help understand the economic operating efficiency, the scale, structure and development of logistics activities. Meanwhile, they are important on reflecting logistics industry operating status in time and monitoring the trend in total logistics cost and analyzing the trend in logistics industry. Scientifically evaluating regional total logistics cost status and correctly forecasting future regional total logistics cost can provide a foundation to help the government strengthen the operation of macro-economy and establish rules on logistics industry development, and to help the enterprises make decision on multiregional investment.The topic selection and main contents of this paper are carried on the research background of project of HUNAN Province Economic Committee which named "Chang-Zhu-Tan City Group Modern Logistics Industry Development Plan" and 2006 topic selection in Doctoral Dissertation of Central South University Graduate Education Innovation Project which named "Research on Regional Total Logistics Cost". Based on the home and abroad researches of macroscopical total logistics cost, systematic researches on calculating, evaluating, analyzing and forecasting total logistics cost are carried on by means of the statistical theory, the gray system theory, the econometric theory, the combination optimization theory and applied mathematics theory. The main jobs have done are as the following:Firstly, several characteristic calculating methods of macroscopical total logistics cost of a number of countries and the international and domestic research status of evaluating, analyzing and forecasting of macroscopical total logistics cost are described in detail.Secondly, a methodology for calculating regional total logistics cost is put forward, which was based on the national total logistics cost statistical accounting system. A reckoning model of regional total logistics cost historical data is also established. The methodology and model maintain a high degree of consistency with the national total logistics costs statistical accounting system in statistical index system, and the scopes of accounting and calculating. Regional total logistics costs of Chang-Zhu-Tan city group in 2004 and 2005 are calculated and regional total logistics cost historical data since 1991 to 2005 are reckoned as examples.Thirdly, deficiencies of the existing evaluating index of regional total logistics cost- total logistics cost as a percentage of GDP is analyzed with qualitative method, and a new index-total logistics cost as a percentage of total value of social logistics goods is put forward. Gray correlation analysis method is used to evaluate the characteristics of two indexes. Experiments on Chang-Zhu-Tan city group were carried out, it is proved that the new index is influenced by the industry structure less than the existing index, the new index is better to reflect the development of the logistics industry, and it is a good index to evaluate regional total logistics cost under the condition of different industry structure.Fourthly, four groups of influencing factors of regional total logistics cost and their influencing mechanism are analyzed with quantitative method. A methodology of econometric for analyzing the relationship between regional total logistics cost and its influencing factors is put forward. Experiments on Chang-Zhu-Tan city group were carried out, it is proved that there does not exist a unique co-integration relationship between the total logistics cost- total logistics cost as a percentage of total value of social logistics goods and the index of industry structure - the percentage of the GDP values of primary industry and secondary industry in Chang-Zhu-Tan city group, but there exist co-integration relationships between it and the economy development indexes, the logistics industry infrastructure indexes and the operating level of logistics industry indexes. And at the confidence level of 90%, there are unidirectional Granger-causalities from per capita GDP to total logistics cost and from the total length of highways to total logistics cost.Fifthly, one weight changeable combination prediction method of regional total logistics cost is put forward. It integrated useful information of Grey System prediction, vector error correction model prediction and BP neural network prediction, and made up for the deficiencies of every single forecast method. Therefore it can effectively improve the forecasting accuracy. Experiments on Chang-Zhu-Tan city group were carried out; it is proved that weight changeable combination prediction method is relatively better than those methods.Systematic research on regional total logistics cost is of important theoretical value and practical significance in logistics subject. It is a very extensive and very complex problem, and it belongs to a ground-breaking work. Those qualitative and quantitative research methods adopted in this paper can provide helpful references for further in-depth study of regional total logistics cost and scientific planning of regional logistics industry development.