Research On The International And Domestic Price Risk Management Of Agricultural Products

In this paper, we start from the formation of prices of agricultural products and conduction in the international community, defined the scientific related concepts of agricultural price risk, emphasize the importance of the risk management of prices of agricultural products. Under the support of the relevant theory and models, we analyze the agricultural price risk management tools and policy tools market mechanism in-depth, stressed the importance of the reasons for policy support. From the analysis the domestic and foreign markets through the inspection tools and policy tools applied to agricultural price risk management theory and experience and the reality of our country, we build a system of agricultural price risk management, innovation of agricultural price risk management tools, and accordingly the development of relevant policies and measures for the new era under the various tools used in China's agricultural price risk management study provide a frame of reference and guidance.In this paper, the main research framework structure is divided into six parts. The first of all is the part of the introduction. This article introduces the research background, as well as the methods used in this article and innovation.The second part is the agricultural price risk analysis. We mainly introduce the risk of the general theory, define the concept research and study the development related to the status quo the analysis of the current risk management theory, prices of agricultural products such as the goal of risk management theory, the price is expected to theory, financial markets, the theory of purchasing power parity theory, agriculture the protection of the theory of imperfect competition theory and the theory of state intervention, such as market management theory and policy management theory; on the international market prices of agricultural products affected the domestic market prices of agricultural products conduction chain, namely the international market price - import prices - the domestic market price of such international transmission mechanism, for the following lay the foundation for targeted management; introduce the risk of the prices of agricultural products of random measurement model, web model, rational price expectations and artificial neural networks and other related models, for the following empirical part of laying a theoretical basis.The third part is the price of agricultural commodities market risk management tools and policy instruments. Here we follow the main conduction path of price risk related to use of agricultural price risk management tools, through contracts, futures, options market risk management; to reserve system, such as price stabilization mechanisms and tariffs, subsidies, commodity price insurance and other border policy management policy risks. Analysis of the current commonly used financial derivatives, and related tools to conduct a comparative study.The fourth part is divided into the world's major economies agricultural price risk management experience and lessons learned. It is mainly an analysis of the United States, the European Union, Japan and developing countries, agricultural price risk management, on the world agricultural price risk management experience and lessons learned from the evaluation. The United States has the world's most developed market of agricultural price risk management experience, through non-recourse loan projects and target price subsidies to improve the price support policy, through large enterprises, pricing advantages, the U.S. hegemonic policies to strengthen the border. The EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is the core of the farm price risk management. It is through the target price, the intervention prices and the threshold prices of the domestic market price protection. Through the difference between the import tax and export agricultural subsidies and the threshold prices of external price protection, it thereby constitutes a stable complete the internal market price system. At the same time, the EU has also shown a positive trend in the market. Japan's agriculture associations in agricultural management has a monopoly prices of agricultural products through the complex policy. Price strict management system, resulting in serious distortion of prices, the market management tools Although early start, but not fully functional. The market mechanism in developing countries is less than the developed countries. Some of the more advanced countries make full use of international futures options market guide price of agricultural products, hedging to manage price risk, some other countries for the management of agricultural prices are reflected in many of protective intervention. WTO agricultural prices also give developing countries the risk of bring about negative effects.The fifth Part is the price risk for China's agricultural products in the empirical analysis. This article mainly use two varieties of soybean meal and beans one for example, the combination of the species related to the futures prices time-to-time-series model based on specific analysis of the Chinese characteristics of price fluctuations of agricultural products. Using GARCH to prove Baker's expectations theory (the agricultural products subject to price fluctuations of the past price fluctuations, and price volatility will lead to expected changes in prices, agricultural price risks exist and may be enlarged), with EGARCH confirmed that "leverage effect" (negative impact than positive impact seems more vulnerable to increased volatility), by MGARCH verify conduction problem. Baker obviously come to effect, "leverage effect" does not exist and on the lower reaches of the risk of one-way conduction products price conclusions. Shows that prices of agricultural products the level of market risk management is not high, the development of futures markets is not perfect and the price risk is still great.The last part is the construction of management system and the related policy recommendations. Market price risks, we tend to adopt a market-management tools, such as contracts (orders), futures, options management; against the policy of price risks, we tend to use domestic price support tools, such as price protection, agricultural reserves, reserve fund system, insurance and subsidies support; for tariffs and international exchange rate risks, we tend to use the border policy tools, such as tariffs and quotas, exchange rate management, green and technology barriers. Comprehensive use of various tools will help each other to achieve optimal results. This paper concludes with relevant policy recommendations, namely, to strengthen the market tools, adjust the policy tools, expand the border policy and optimize the system environment.