The Study On The Method Of Forecasting Construction Land Reasonable Demand In Urbanization

In the part 3 of the 17th CPC National Congress report, it is said:' understand entirely industrialization,information,urbanization,market,internationalization development, more consciously take the way of science development'. In the part 5, the title of the fifth section is:' impel area's harmonious development, optimize situation of land exploitation'. In the section, it is said:' develop Chinese feature urbanization, in the term of planning the city and town,arranging reasonably,saving land,consummating function,big bringing small, promote the middle-small city and towns harmonious development.' It is obvious that the issue of urbanization and land use are worth, and will be think much in the coming period.The land resources are the natural environmental resources which human being rely on existing and developing and the resources is irreplaceable. It is an important subject that how to treat with the conflict of land limited, resources, environment and the economic development. The conflict between the limited of land area and the increase of land demand need to resolve by rational utilization of land and scientific land plan. Land for construction is a kind of special way of land utilization. It is certain that the rapid development of social economy of an area must increases the demand of the land for construction. But because of that the way of utilize land for construction is difficult to reverse, it is necessary to scientifically forecast and plan the land for construction during the process of land utilization. By this way it will not only satisfy requirements of social economy development, but also prevent the out-of-order expand of the land for construction.The development and the variety of land for construction are regarded as important things in our country. The Overall Land Use Planning is a method of carrying out the strict layout and management about the land for construction. The forecast of the demand for instruction is the key of the Overall Land Use Planning, and it is the basis of the land use management as well. If there is a large gap between the value of the forecast on the demand of land for construction and the actual demand, the demand for land of social economy development will be unsatisfied, and the plan will not be valid on the macro-control effect of land utilization. This paper is under the background that our country's urbanization is in the phase of rapid progress, and the third rounds of constituting the General Land Use Planning will be develop all-round. It integrates the author's experience of the pilot work on revising the General Land Use Planning of Gaocheng city, and researches the demand of land for construction's forecast during fast development of economy. The purpose of this paper is that by the research on the theories and the methods of the forecast of the land for construction, to establish a forecasting model on the demand and the distribution of land for construction which is fit for county economy. And it will give foundations and references on that how to scientifically establish the control index of land for construction, how to reasonably arrange diversified land for construction, and how to constitute the new round General Land Use Planning of county rank. The structure of this paper is as follows:Chapter 1: There is the introduction of the background of selecting topic, research significance, research content, research approach and main innovation.Chapter 2: The correlative concepts have been defined in this chapter. There are introductions about the classification method of land use which based on the industry, expatiations the meaning of land's intensively economical use, and the relevant theories.Chapter 3: Introduces the methods to forecasting of constructional land demand and evaluate these methods. Especially the fixed index method is analysis. Finally, it chooses the method that it will be used in the paper.Chapter 4: It introduce drive-factor analyzed model in details. The principle of fabricating the factor index system,qualitative analysis the ingredient,quantify filter the factor,foresting model and appraises the result are explained.Chapter 5: Base on the character of urbanization, the paper qualitative analysis the ingredient. Base on the analysis, it builds up factor system from economy and society angle.Chapter 6: Case study. Quantify filter the factors and by the drive-factor analysis it forests the construction land of Gaocheng city. It forests differently city and towns land,rural resident land,industry land,traffic land,irrigation land and special land, and appraises the result in intensives and economy utilizing.Chapter 7: It contrasts the results of drive-factors analysis method and fixed index method and regression method. The drive-factors analysis method is proved rationality,feasibility and science.Chapter 8: It is the conclusion of this paper. It is innovated that foresting the construction land by drive-factors analysis method.In this paper, there are three innovative places as follows:The first, the viewpoint is innovative. Based on sustainable development theory, human geography relations coordination theory, this paper suggests that scientific forecasting the demand of constructional land from the Aspects of intensive use of the land. The second, method is innovative. It analyses the different characteristics about the constructive land's utilization by each industry, forecasts the demand of constructional land according to the drive-factor.The third, the forecast factor system innovation. The fixed index method emphasizes the population factor and thinks little about the other factors; and it is short of scenically gist in choosing index. Regression method ignores the difference of each type of construction land, and it emphasizes the gross of the construction land. The drive-factor analysis method considers the different character of each industry, and it chooses the factors that impact the kind of construction land. The drive-factor analysis method forests each kind of land more reasonably, and explains the change of demand in the construction land at the same time.