Study On Micro Behaviour Mechanism Of Regional Land Use And Land Cover Change Influenced By Grain For Green Policy

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is the key frontier issues of global environment change research, and typically regional case sdudy is an important way to understand global change effect. It is one of the hot issues that researchers explore LUCC driving mechanism through land use scenario simulation models to show dynamic feedback relationship between physical environment and human activities. There are numerous and complicated driving forces acting on regional land use and land cover spatio-temporal pattern, but all driving forces take effect by land use decision-makers. So, a useful way to explor LUCC micro behaviour mechanism is to study on factors influencing landholder's choices, process forming decision, and land use change outcomes. So far, Grain for Green policy is the only one public policy involved wide range of households. Therefore, in order to put the policy into practice successfully, it urgently needs theoretical principle of households land use behaviour choice mechanism. Based on multidisciplinary, multiple points of view, and multilevel analysis combined with GIS and models, the paper study on regional LUCC macro process and pattern, micro behaviour mechanism which affected by Grain for Green plicy. Some conclusions were put forward as follows:(1) Study on macro process and pattern in mesoscale, taking Mizhi County as research area, land use characteristic of Mizhi County, respectively in 1990, 1999, and 2006, were acquired by RS and GIS approach. Contrastive analysis of outcomes of LUCC in Mizhi County in temporal process and spatial pattern before and after GFGP which is the two periods during 1990 to 1999 and 1999 to 2006, were given by using the mathematical method to calculate the dynamic degrees of certain and synthesis land types, the land type conversion matrix changes and landscape analysis, et al. Then, using qualitative method, LUCC policy driving mechanism was put forward. GFGP accelerated farmland conversion speed in Mizhi County, and influenced the land use change significantly.(2) Based on questionnaire survey of Gaoqu Township and Yangjiagou Township in Mizhi County, current status of GFGP, households' attitude and behaviour choice were studied. Results show that, in samples, there were not only similarities in the entirety but also differences in the individual between households' attitude, including cognition, judgment, inclination, and intention. Through Logit model analysis, main factors of households' land use decision-making after GFGP were studied. Results show that, five main factors of households' land use decision-making were proposed and the incidence of each factor was diversified. All results done above make a solid empirical research foundation for the next study of dividing household types, spatial distribution, behaviour rules and households' land use choices responding to GFGP, et al.(3) Study on micro behaviour mechanism in small scale, taking Luiqu Village, Fengqu Village, Gaoxigou Village, and Chenjiagou Village in Gaoqu Township as typical case research area, combining process and pattern analysis with behaviour mechanism, conceptual model of agent-based models of land use and land cover change (ABMs/LUCC) was set up, and household anget behaviours and their effects on LUCC were analyzed specifically. Taking household's land use preference as classification rule, household agent types were divided though classification tree. Different choosing process of current production strategies and theirs probabilities after expiration of GFGP chosen by various types of household agents' were put forward by experience-weighted attraction model (EWA) based on bounded -rational approach. Finally, forecasting the results of households' recultivation behaviour after the expiration of GFGP by scenario analysis method. The results show that relative policies are useful to rectify deviation of households' bounded-rational behaviours and reinforce outcomes of GFGP.(4) Using comprehensive analysis method, physical, economic, and social driving mechanism of household land use choice and their behaviour response were given. Conclusions show that, household land use choice must abide by the order of nature, ecological adaptability, and restriction of national macro policies. At the same time, household also need to adjust their land use behaviour according to demands and market situation, because household decide to change land use choice based on the comparative profits between present land use types and future land use types. Social factors were the most difficult estimated aspect of household land use choices. In all, household land use behaviour confined by physical condition, driven by economic benefits, and behaviour modification permited by social change. So, regional land use change in household level is involved in factors of nature, economy and society. In the context, the paper reveals LUCC general discipline, tendency and macro mechanism by regional analysis in mesoscale, and further explains details and micro mechanism of LUCC spatio-temporal pattern by typical area research in order to avoid superficiality caused by single scale analysis. In a word, conclusions aim to give some useful suggestions to draw up sustainable development policy and improve maneuver ability of relative policies.