Study On The Potential Of Resources, Market And Industrial Structure For Forestry Economic Industries Development In Western China

According to the theories of development economics and sustainable development, an analytic framework is designed based on the factors impacting on forestry economic industries development. By the analytic framework, based on a expatiation upon the historical and actual status of forest resources and forestry development in Western China, and systematical consideration in the demand of land using for agriculture, and forestry and stockbreeding, using the qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, the maximal land area usable for forestry is accounted According to the date of land usability appraising. By request for the reasonable structure of forest using types, the land area usable for the shelterbelt forest, timber forest, economic forest, fire wood forest and special purpose forest are estimated respectively. Based on an analysis of the factors impacting on market demands for wood forest products such as timber, wooded panel, wooded furniture, wood pulp and wood fuel, and non-wood forest products such as fruit, flower, and forest tour, the forecast models for these products are established respectively by the statistics, and the market capacity and potential of these products are estimated. Using the Shift-share Method, the structure national forestry economic industry as the frame of reference, the advantage and potential in structure of forestry economic industry of holistic west-china and every province are analyzed, and the industries with developing advantage and potential are elected for every province in Western China. The conclusions as follow: (1) on the premise of the preferential sequence of the multi-usable land using is by agriculture, forestry and stockbreeding, the maximal land area usable for forestry is 163 million hm~2. The reserved land suitable for forestry is mostly second-class. The forest land is with a higher potential of productivity because the actual productivity of forest land is out and away lower than the climatic productivity. If the land usable for forestry was used fully, the maximal output of timber would be 116 million m~3 and 216 million m~3 by the actual productivity and the expected productivity respectively. The districts with higher potential of timber production are Neimenggu municipality, Guanxi municipality, Yunnan province and Sichuan province in Western China. (2) Both the wood and the non-wood forest products will be with great market capacity and potential in the future. On the premise of the future supply capacity of timber determined by the forest resources, the market capacity for industrial roundwood of Western China will stabilize round about 200 million m~3, meanwhile, comparing with the actual output, the potential of market capacity for other wood forest products are respectively as fallow: wood furniture with 45%～75%, wooded panel with 55%～70%, wood pulp with 20%～90%.The demand for wood fuel will decrease in the future in Western China. The actual output of fruits in west is more than the demands of Western China in 2030, so the potential of demands for the fruits of Western China will be from the market out of Western China. Comparing with the actual output, the total potential of demands from the market in Western China and out of Western China for the fruits of Western China will be about 4.3 million t～17 million t until 2030. With the social and economic development, there will be large potential for tourists number in Western China. In the near future, the districts with higher potential for tourists number will be in the Southwest, Neimenggu municipality, Shanxi province and Xinjiang municipality, but in the long future, the main districts with higher potential for tourists number will be in the Southwest, especially in Guanxi municipality, Sichuan province and Yunnan province. (3) Western China as a integer, there is lack of relative advantage of forestry industrial structure that it is necessary to be optimized. Fruit planting, officinal planting, forest cutting and forest tour are the industries with higher developmental potential in Western China at present, meanwhile flower planting, sawnwood processing are the industries with weaker foundation and stronger advantage and competition, which will become the industries with higher potential of development in the near future. Wooded panel processing, wooded products making, non-wooded forest products processing, furniture making, chemical processing of forest products and wood pulp processing are the industries with weak developmental foundation, but with higher growth rate, which will become the industries with higher potential of development in the long future.