Research On Economic Evaluation Of Investment Projects Based On The Concept Of Harmony

With the development of economy and technology, investment projects increase in the double-digit growth rate annually, which involve increasing range and scope. However, the relationship between investment projects and the social and ecological environment is in a crisis, building a resource-saving and environment-friendly society is in the most urgent situation. To find and solve the contradictions fundamentally, econimic evaluation of invest projects should adopt the concept of harmony to analyse and evaluate investment projects. In the background of building a harmonious society in China, the dissertation does research into economic evaluation theory of investment projects based on the concept of harmony.The dissertation introduces Simon's "Bounded Rationality" as theory foundation in economic evaluation, which narrows the gap between the pre-conditions of the rational choice and real life, is more realistic in the investment decisions, provides more effective theory support for the economic evaluation system of investment projects.Traditional economic evaluation is the basis of this research. First, the dissertation studies the limitations of the DCF model which is the theory basis and calculation platform of various economic indicators. To make it easy to understand and use various evaluation indicators, the dissertation study on how to forecast cash flow and choose discount rate. Real option is introduced to overcome the theory flaw of DCF, which truly reflect the inherent flexibility and uncertainty of project investment. The internalization of environmental cost makes the pursuit of profit maximization motives and the environmental requirements in line.The analytical method of the associated risk factors is studied in the analysis of risks and uncertainties. Based on the traditional analytical method, the analytical method of risks and uncertainties analysis raised by the subjective factors is proposed, and the all-around analysis system of risks and uncertainties is established. After the main risk factors and their degree are forecast, the corresponding measures that avoid and prevent risk factors are proposed to reduce possible losses.To analyse harmony of investment projects and research harmonious degree of various economic evaluation indicator subsystem, harmonious degree is introduced, and indicator system is established, which lay a foundation for long-term development and lasting profitability of investment projects. The method provides a powerful support for multi-project optimization under the concept of harmony without acquisiton of new data and information.Finally, F-AHP based on entropy weight is introduced to multi-project optimization under the indicator system of investment projects harmony. F-AHP solves the multi-attribute and fuzzy problem. Entropy weight ranking is more effective. Usingα-cut and index of optimismλestimate the uncertainty and preference of decision makers. The acquired data and information is used to study harmony of selected project, which provides further reference for investment decisions.In recent years, "Harmony" has become the major topic which is concerned by academe, and the concept of harmony has also been accepted by more and more enterprises. So far, however, no one dissertate economic evaluation of investment projects systematically based on the concept of harmony. Based on the above, the dissertation makes an attempt, and hopes to be able to provide new idea and method for investment decisions.