| The economical growth and the full employment are the macroeconomic two main goals , the various countries' government positively is taking each kind of measure, uses each kind of policy, maintains the economical and the employment synchronized growth. Since the reform and open policy, our country economy has continued high speed to grow, but gets employed actually does not have too greatly to grow, the employment pressure is more and more big. The employment growth and the economy grow the huge disparity, from on the one hand displays for the unemployment unceasingly increases, the social gap between the rich and the poor enlarges, assigns the unfair degree to strengthen, the social unstable factor increases sharply. From on the other hand, the market economy brings the economical the growth, society's progress, partial local and partial people's wealth , thus causes other local and another part of people's poverty. Looked from our country actual situation that, is we stops the economical development footsteps, emphatically deals with the issue which in the economy developing process brings, namely the assignment problem, or said the employment question. At the same time, the developed country industrial structure evolution course indicated that, will follow the economical level the unceasing enhancement, the labor force has the regular shift between various industries.At present, the developed country tertiary industry employment proportion has surpassed 60%, the tertiary industry has become the developed country employment the main industry. The tertiary industry employment proportion enhancement not only is buys in the surplus labor force the need, is the industrial structure high-level request. Speeds up the tertiary industry the development, enhances tertiary industry in the national economy status, fully displays the tertiary industry to buy in the labor force employment the main channel function, has been one of for many years our country government economic policy important guidance , also is the conclusion which many scholars research institutes obtains. However, in the recent 10 years, our country tertiary industry development does not conform to the above guidance in fact and anticipated , regardless of is the proportion which the tertiary industry delivers occupies, or the tertiary industry employment proportion all obviously is lower than the same level of development the country. But looked from our country three easy childbirths industry solutions employment angle that, the primary industry labor force too much, has the counted by the 100 million labor force to need to shift; The second industry although also has the bigger development space, can create the partial employment, but along with the industrial structure adjustment, the second industrial employment proportion also can drop. But tertiary industry because the coverage broad, involves department more, and quite part of professions are the labor-intensive form professions, relatively buys in the labor force the ability to be stronger, looked from the western nation development, the tertiary industry will become the solution unemployment question the main channel. But buys in the labor force population from our country tertiary industry to look that, in 2005 our country tertiary industry employment proportion is 30.6%, but also the same year social labor power employment total number of people 1/3, fell behind by far the developed country 70% level of employment, very many developing nations also achieved above 40%, but the world average level was 50%. Our country tertiary industry employment host channel function does not have the full display. still had the quite big employment space. China is facing the industrial structure adjustment to promote and to solve the employment dual difficult problem, how adapts the economical development and the structure transformation "the general rule", in the industrial structure adjustment promotion process, has become an urgent duty through the development tertiary industry effective addressing employment which our country faces.This article from analyzes our country employment present situation and in the tertiary industry development foundation, developed the tertiary industry enhancement effects of employment to our country to carry on the real diagnosis analysis, the use gray system gray connection analysis, carried on the analysis to our country tertiary industry level of employment influence factor, and has established the tertiary industry employment population combination forecast model, finally proposed alleviated our country employment pressure, raised the level of employment the policy suggestion.This article altogether is divided eight chapters of contents:First chapter introduction, this article research background and research significance, domestic and foreign research present situation, this article research mentality and method, frame and basic content. The overseas research literature includes: At the end of the 60's to the beginning of the 70's, the American economist request reach Luo, flowed in the contradictory phenomenon from the developing nation rural population which the cities and cities unemployment synchronization grew to embark, established own population flow model. American economist Fei Jinghan and pulls Nice Fei Jinghan which establishes in the 20th century the beginning of 60's - to pull the Nice model, namely spends Lumus. David Touches pulls David thought that, The developing nation employment will promote finally to belong to the service industry unceasing development which the manufacturing industry will draw. the Pety - Cluck theorem pointed out that, along with the economical development, a country's labor force the change tendency which distributes in during three industries is from the primary industry shift to the second industry, after but again from second industry to tertiary industry shift. The American economist storehouse this utilization massive statistical data has proven the Cluck theory. The French economist rich Russ peduncle Egypt's research pointed out, the technology advancement causes the industrial structure change is a principal factor which the labor force industrial structure evolves. Domestic about the employment mainly from under the unemployment nature and the unemployment reason, the dual current economic condition rural labor force aspect and so on shift question as well as economical growth and employment relations, expanded employment way has conducted the research and the discussion. The second chapter employment theory, the policy and the experience profit from, mainly elaborated the Marxism classics employment theory and the western economical school of thought employment theory; The western nation promotion employment policy, mainly includes: (1) the promotion employment took a country economy and the social policy basic primary goal/target (2) stimulates in the decline using the financial policy and the monetary policy the economy, and prevents the inflation with the income policy, the solution demand insufficiency and the economical periodic unemployment. Three) utilizes the manpower policy, the improvement labor force supplies structure, the solution structural unemployment (4)utilization positive labor market support policy, strengthens the occupation instruction and the occupation introduced, the solution friction unemployment (5) support employment space big mid- and small-scale enterprise development, creates the more employment post(6) promotion many kinds of employment pattern development, vigorously promotes the non- regular employment and the elastic employment (7)provides the preferential policy for the community employment(8) positively improves the unemployment safeguard system, the promotion employment. The model promotion employment experience is: Adopts the measure expansion labor force demand; Adjustment labor force supplies; Perfect labor market, perfect social security system.The third chapter our country employment present situation and the restriction factor, elaborated the employment basic concept, elaborated the our country employment question day by day serious primary factor: Development factor, structure adjustment factor, urbanized advancement long-term lag factor, employment idea existence erroneous zone In front of the hillock trains lacks dynamics. Through to our country employment present situation and the future employment situation analysis, will obtain our country labor force resources the unceasing growth to cause our country the labor force supplies quantity also day by day to increase, but the labor force quality also unceasingly will be enhancing; Our country employment contradictory mainly displays in: Between the massive creational labor force and the limited employment post contradiction, the industrial structure promotion and the labor force quality do not enhance between the synchronism contradiction, between the rural labor force shift and the cities advancement contradiction But the 21st century 30's later our country employment situation will be able to have the stepped changes: The employment creates which by the system transformation contradictory has roughly solved, enters the impact which WTO creates basically already passes, several dozens years reason the employment pressure which high creates to the population rate of increment also hastens alleviates, After 21st century 30's, the employment pressure still existed, but its nature transformed into the market economy under the universal existence that kind of type employment question.Fourth chapter, our country tertiary industry development present situation through to our country tertiary industry development course and development present situation analysis, because is given priority to development as well as the service sector the physical production department for the unproductive parasitism department's guiding ideology and the planned economy system influence, our country tertiary industry development does not receive takes, the start is later. But since the reform and open policy the Chinese tertiary industry market growth remarkable change mainly has manifested in following several aspects: First, the tertiary industry market mechanism multiplication pattern already formed. Looking from the system of ownership structure that, under the planned economy system, the Chinese tertiary industry market basically monopolizes the management by the state economy ingredient; Second, tertiary industry market scale rapid expansion. Third, tertiary industry market by market fixed price primarily price movement mechanism preliminary formation. Fourth, initially forms the tertiary industry market network and the system. In addition, our country tertiary industry GDP and employment population, regardless of or relative quantity and the total quantity, all has obtained the fast growth..Fifth chapter through real diagnosis analysis which grows to our country tertiary industry development promotion employment, separately from GDP and the employment constitution, the industrial structure and the employment structure deviation, the elastic angle has analyzed the labor force to the tertiary industry shift present situation and the influence which grows to the employment, and through our country tertiary industry level of development and the employment structure change international comparison, obtains our country labor force to be slower to the tertiary industry translational velocity, The tertiary industry employment proportion is somewhat low; Our country tertiary industry level of development quite is backward; The tertiary industry will be China solves the employment main profession from now on.Sixth chapter through to our country tertiary industry level of employment influence factor ash connection analysis, comparatively this present situation from our country tertiary industry level of employment to embark, further has studied the influence tertiary industry level of employment factor. The correct analysis and there search tertiary industry level of employment to each influence factor level of dependency as well as they respectively in the promotion tertiary industry level of employment contribution degree has pointed takes the measure, raises the tertiary industry level of employment the key. According to predecessor's research results, selection urbanization level, average per person GDP, industrialization index, non-nationalization level and population scale five targets,Using the pessimistic theory in connection analysis method, programs withMATLAB mathematics software, movement result as follows:Looked from the computed result that, the urbanized level has the very strong influence to the tertiary industry employment, in selects in the influence factor is most important, connection achieves 0.6657;Urbanized and tertiary industry mutual promotion relations (area)displays extremely obviously in the developed country; Next is average per person GDP, receives the right and wrong nationalization level and the industrialization index, affects weakly is the population scale. Therefore, must enhance our country tertiary industry the level of employment to have to enhance the urbanization horizontal, average per person GDP and the non- nationalization level.The seventh chapter our country tertiary industry employment population forecast, the use combination forecast principle ,comprehensive utilization each kind individually forecast the model provides the information, obtains the combination forecast model by its suitable weighted average form The combination forecast extracts the weighted average coefficient, causes the combination forecast model effectively to increase the forecast precision In this method guarantee combination forecast model the erroneous square sum big model weight coefficient is smaller, Erroneous square sum small model weight coefficient bigger, causes the combination forecast model the error square sum to be as far as possible small. And selects the most superior weight using the linear programming, the time series model, GM (1, 1) the gray forecast the model and two index smooth models three kind of forecasts models perform to combine, establish our country tertiary industry employment population the combination forecast model. May know by the forecast result, to 2010, our country tertiary industry employment population achieves 285.3516 million people, And obtains "eleven five" the period, our country tertiary industry employment population total quantity increases 47.6416 million people, the yearly average rate of increment is 4%. Certainly, because the economical fast development, the industrial structure adjustment and national macroeconomic policy inclining, the estimate actual value possibly must forecast value be higher than some.The eighth chapter policy suggested that, in the model overseas promotion employment experience and the full consideration our country concrete national condition as well as in the analysis tertiary industry level of employment influence factor foundation, promotes the employment to our country below to propose suggested 1. Walks the countryside industry path, speeds up the countryside surplus labor force the shift; 2. The development education,strengthens professional skill training. 3. Vigorously develops the tertiary industry. 4. Consummates the unemployment safeguard system.
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