System Analysis On The Contradiction Between Increasing Farmers' Income And Grain Security In The Highland Of Central China

Grain security and farmers' income are two hot problems in China. Both of the following opinions are universally accepted that increasing farmers' income continually has practical meaning for overall stabilization; establishing grain security system has strategic significance to safeguard national interests. At any time, we must take efforts to increase farmers' income and ensure grain security that are both related to national economic development.With economy and society having entered into a new development stage in China, the phenomena of antinomy as follows exist in reaching to grain security and increasing farmers' income at macroscopic level: on one hand, as developing grain production, it is difficult to increase farms' income steadily, which increase rate is turning down, i. e., more product doesn't mean more income; on the other hand, for increasing farmers' income, it is necessary to abandon grain production with low comparative profit, which affects grain security. The phenomena above have inverse impact on national economic development and rural stabilization.The contradiction between increasing farmers' income and grain security at microcosmic level such as Lanpo village is a ubiquitous problem in the highland of central China.Lanpo is a representative non-administrative village in the highland of central China. It is located at the intersection area between west Jiangxi province and east Hunan province, and belongs to Paishang town, Xiangdong district, Pingxiang city, Jiangxi province. In the village, there are 27 peasant households, population 424, 39.5 acres of cultivated land area (which mainly is paddy field), 0.09 acres of per capita cultivated land area. The main economic activities of the farmers are to cultivate paddy, to work apart from hometown and to raise pigs, among which the primary one is to raise pigs. According to the author's investigation, pig raising is a principal part of farmers' income increase not only in Lanpo village, but also in the countries of Jiangxi province and central China. Pig raising is the main means to increase income for many farms because it has comparative advantage. However, pig raising and marsh gas project bring the following problems together with farmers' income increase. Firstly, since scale of pig raising is not in accordance with less cultivated land near the raising location, the liquid from gas pool can't be completely absorbed and utilized by the cultivated land. Thus, the remains are discharged to downstream basin through drains, which results in pollution to downstream water area, land and environment. Secondly, the liquid together with water enter into paddy field, which makes the paddy turn into green seedling named as paddy pollution derived from the liquid. According to the investigation to the farmers in Lanpo village, the pollution has reduced 30% of rice product, which has affects rice product security, i. e., microcosmic grain security. Two types of pollution mentioned above are entitled 'second pollution'. It is the embodiment of the contradiction between increasing farmers' income and grain security at microcosmic level, named as Lanpo contradiction.At macroscopic level or at microcosmic level, it objectively exists of the contradiction between increasing farmers' income and ensuring grain security. Hence thorough research is much necessary on what relationship between them, how to coordinate them, how to achieve double-win goals for them.Based on circular economy theory, eco-agriculture theory and modern tillage system theory, the dissertation analyzes systematically the Lanpo contradiction by use of system engineering methods, transforming bridge methods, optimization methods and system dynamic models. The results indicate that, the Lanpo's 'pig-gas-food' circular economy eco-pattern with development of moderate pig raising of scale, elimination of the second pollution to paddy cultivation through the project for separating the liquid from irrigation water, and exploitation pattern of optimized combination of vegetables cultivation in wintry unused farmland and paddy cultivation, is an effective way not only for the resolution of contradiction between increasing farmers' income and grain security in the highland of central China but also for pollution control.The major research contents and results are as follows.1. Positive analysis of increasing farmers' income, grain security and relationship between them has been conducted by using the data of main rice production region in China. The analysis shows that both of increasing farmers' income and grain security are problematic, and it surely exists of contradiction between increasing farmers' income and grain security.2. Spot group decision making of multi-level and multi-turn is developed by using system engineering methods and applied practically.Achieving a consensus required by resolution of complex system problems, not only depends on data and information and models, but also needs to integrate experts' and decision makers' opinions as the synthesis method proposes. However, due to different knowledge backgrounds and value standpoints of experts, and different statuses of decision makers, it is not simple to achieve a consensus. Thus much work is to be done to achieve a consensus. Existing research on it as is figured has neglected relation to the actual and spot decision making, which are important to solve actual problems. The method 'spot group decision making of multi-level and multi-turn' is therefore presented based on the existing research results of achieving a consensus and the idea of system engineering development. And then it is applied to system developing and decision making with actual condition in Lanpo village. The main characteristic of the method is to achieve a consensus of decision making by integrating multi-level experts, multi-level feedbaCks and multi-consensus with multiple times of spot investigations. The integration is derived form the idea of system engineering methodology.The method has good practical effects on both the ascertainment of integrated circular economy coo-pattern and decision making of schemes for optimized combination of vegetables cultivation in wintry unused farmland and paddy cultivation.3. The particular Lanpo's 'pig-gas-food' circular economy eco-pattern which deserves popularization is designed based on circular economy theory, eco-agriculture theory and modern tillage system theory.The assessment indicator system of circular economy ecosystem is designed, which consists of four indicators i. e., investment ability, economic benefit of investment, social benefit of investment, cultivated land area and soil condition. And qualitative assessment is made to 'pig-gas-food' circular economy ecosystem in Lanpo village by applying the indicator system and spot group decision making of multi-level and multi-turn. The following circular economy eco-pattern according with the condition of Lanpo village is then ascertained: 'pig-gas-food' circular economy eco-pattern with development of moderate pig raising of scale, elimination of the second pollution to paddy cultivation through the project for separating the liquid from irrigation water, and exploitation pattern of optimized combination of vegetables cultivation in wintry unused farmland and paddy cultivation.4. The concept of conditional disjunctive prototype and the transforming bridge method based on the concept are both first introduced. It is theoretically analyzed that the Lanpo's 'pig-gas-food' circular economy eco-pattern is scientific to the resolution of the Lanpo contradiction.5. The planting patterns are initially designed. Then a three-objective optimization model is built and a new two-stage approach is developed. The derived scheme provides decision making basis for practice.According to the actuality of Lanpo village, the tillage system is designed to be 'paddy and vegetables' pattern under the condition of ensuring grain security. Through data inquiry in Web, spot investigation, expert information consultation and integrative assessment of tillage pattern etc., the schemes for tillage patterns in Lanpo village are proposed.According to the research purpose, a multi-objective optimization model is built, which objective function is to maximize rice product, farmers' net income, absorption capacity of the crop to the liquid. Then a two-stage approach is developed to seek for solutions to the multi-objective optimization and the optimal scheme is derived.The scheme provides decision making basis for vegetables cultivation in wintry unused farmland and paddy cultivation in Lanpo village from 2005 to 2006 and obtains a good practical effect.6. A system dynamic model is designed for Lanpo's 'pig-gas-food' circular economy eco-pattern, on which an effective qualitative archetypes analysis and pertinent quantitative system simulation analysis are conducted.(1) On the basis of above sequential researches, a system dynamic model is built through system analysis and the rate variable fundamental in-tree modeling. The model comprises six level variables of rice product, farmers' net income, vegetables production value, absorption capacity to the liquid, utilization quantity of marsh gas and number of pigs, which respectively hold a rate variable fundamental in-tree.(2) A few meaning system archetypes are generated by use of feedback loop.Based on the system archetype analysis in system dynamics, 'pig-gas-food' circular economy ecosystem in Lanpo village can not only achieve the double-win goals for increasing farmers' income and grain security, but also control effectively the second pollution derived from pig raising.(3) System simulation forecast analysis of 'pig-gas-food' circular economy ecosystem in Lanpo village is conducted.According to the connotation of 'pig-gas-food' circular economy ecosystem in Lanpo village, eight schemes are set up which depend on whether it has the project for separating the liquid from irrigation water, whether it exploits wintry unused farmland, whether it controls pig raising scale. The results of system simulation forecast show that, the optimal pattern with achieving simultaneously the goals for increasing farmers' income and grain security and pollution control, is moderate pig raising of scale with the project for separating the liquid from irrigation water and exploitation of wintry unused farmland.