System Simulation Of Wangqing Forestry Bureau In Northeast Overcutting Forest Area

Northeast state-owned forest area is one of the biggest production bases of timber products and other forest by-products ,and it is also an important area of ecological environment construction and the biggest habitat of biodiversity protection. This paper takes a typical forest enterprise Wangqing forestry bureau in northeast overcutting area as a case which has been lack of harvestible forest resources, whose ecological environment has been in dire of protection. The case is treated as a complex and open social economic forest system. At first, its current resources structure and industrial structure are analyzed qualitatively;secondly, relationships among labor forces, value and technological advancement are studied by means of similar coefficient, correlative coefficient and gray correlative analyses. On the base of evaluation, cybernetics theory is applied to analyze feedback relationship of cause and effect, the research object is divided into 5 primary modules and whole system dynamics models are developed, weights of industrial diathesis being calculated through Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP). Not only the influence of classified management, thinning, selective cutting and different projects on forest resources and industrial structure are simulated by the system dynamic models, but also the sensibility analyses of thinning intensity, price, area proportion and intensity of selective cutting are carried out and the desirable project of industrial structure regulation is given. The research results are following:1) By now, wood logging & transportation still has been the dominant industry of Wangqing forest bureau. It has been accounting for high proportion in total value and has higher profits of investment and output than wood procession ,forest chemical industry, etc.2) There are problems of small scale and low profits in wood procession and synthetic utilization, they are key problem to be solved in industrial structure regulation from now on .3) Investment of silviculture infrastructure has great influence on total industrial values and wood logging & transportation values. Increasing silviculture investment greatly is helpful to improve values of wood logging & transportation and total industrial value.4) Although it may cause the decrease of wood production and labor productivity to implement classified management and improve proportion of special public area, it is helpful to increase forest growing stock .5) Proportion of selective cutting area and selective cutting intensity have great influence on timber production, but they have lower influence on profits and labor productivity of total value. Timber price has great impact on benefits of forest industry.6) The results of comparison show that the reasonable proportion of thinning investment are 70%, for thinning intensity to be 30%, for proportion of selective area to be 75% and for selective cutting intensity to be 30%.7) Industrial structure regulation must be integrated with price increasing, development of wood procession and tertiary industry .8) In 2010,the total growing stock will reach 44.4165million cubic meters, growing stock per hectare will be 153.2 cubic meters per hectare if the forest resources don't be cuto...