Research On Demand And Supply, And Production Operation Of Japonica Rice In Northeast China

The northeast China is an important national grain commodity base. It is a large granary of thecountry and undertakes the important task of increasing one hundred billion jin grain production. In2010, the japonica rice production in the three northeastern provinces accounted for45.60%of the totaloutput. However, in recent years, the japonica rice production in northeast region is also subject to someconstraints, including: limited arable land, rising rice farmers' labor opportunity cost, lacking irrigationwater is lacking and low efficiency in scientific and technological achievements transform intoproductivity. We need to ensure the stability of the japonica rice production in Northeast, thehigh-quality japonica rice industry development and the national food security. How to overcome thereal or potential factors? This becomes a major issue we need to face.After study on related literature, historical data analysis, model construction, enterprise survey andindustry outlook, this thesis focus on the development of world rice industry, japonica rice productionlayout in China and southeast China, rice supply-demand forecast, the impact of the changes inproduction cost on rice market price and northeast China japonica rice industrialization. Followings areconclusions and policy suggestions:Firstly, base on the angle of rice supply-demand, this thesis analyzed the development of theworld's rice industry. It demonstrated that the growth of world rice production and total consumptionwould in a smoothly trend, but rice supply and demand may be in tight balance.Secondly, aggregated advantage index (AAI) was used in the thesis to assess the regionaladvantage in major japonica rice producing area. Results showed that provinces that "AAI>1" are, inorder, Jiangsu, Yunnan, Zhejiang, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Ningxia, Jilin and Anhui. In addition,Dongbei region showed a comparative advantage in japonica rice production.Thirdly, a sectoral equilibrium model is built to forecast the supplement of northeast japonica ricefrom2011to2015. Meanwhile, an optimal planning model is established to analyze of the influencingfactors of japonica rice market price. The main findings from these two models are:-From2011to2015, japonica rice productions in northeast China will increase in a continuous,stable and small extent status. However, the consumption of local rural residents will reduce year byyear which may give space to the supplement of northeast japonica rice, and then may promote thecontinuous growth of export.-Land cost is the most important influent factor of the rice price, and agricultural material directlyinputs are also play an important role in the rice market price.Fouthly, a case study was used in this thesis to analyze the industrialization of japonica rice innortheast China. After the case study, SWOT method was adopted to analyze the prospect of japonicarice industry. Analysis showed that in the short term, we should adopt the defense strategy. In the basisof guaranteeing grain needs, in order to increase the added value of products, we should try to improvethe industrialization mechanism of japonica rice, extend the industry chain and build rice brands.Finally, based on the research conclusions, policy suggestions are be put forward for japonica rice industry. The main suggestions include:-Rational develop and utilize the water resources, make efforts to stabilize and increase the riceplanting area.-Set up and perfect the contracted management of land circulation market, adopt moderate scaleoperation in rice planting.-Increase investment in agricultural science and technology; improve the support ability in industrialdevelopment.-Strengthen the leading enterprises, enhance their radiation drive ability, and then improve themarket competition ability of industry development.-Continue to increase the strength in agricultural policy support, ensure the steady income growth ofrice farmers.-Speed up the construction of storage circulation system, reduce the cost of storage andtransportation, and then improve the circulation efficiency.